Class sizes rise but standards 'will remain high'

Guernsey schools are already adapting to falling pupil numbers, says the President of Education, Sport & Culture (ESC), Deputy Paul Montague who has insisted standards would remain high at States-run primary schools.

The number of reception classes in States-run schools has been reduced again this year to 20 as part of efforts to use staff more efficiently.

Montague said the process had been carefully managed to ensure a balanced distribution of pupils across the island's primary schools.

"I want to say a very big thank you to all the officers who've managed to do this in such a way that we've got a fairly even spread across those schools," he said.

"It's certainly not an easy thing and, as parents will know, it's a really important time in children's lives."

Fewer children and rising class sizes was described as a "lose-lose situation" for children in Guernsey by a former politician.

Although overall intake numbers have fallen, class sizes are now broadly in line with those typically seen in the UK. The average reception class contains about 24 pupils, with some variation between schools.

Montague rejected concerns that this could affect children's learning. He emphasised that each class was supported by a learning support assistant, alongside experienced teaching staff.

"We've got an awful lot of incredibly good reception teachers across the settings, so we're confident that the educational outcomes will still be very high," he said.

The changes reflect a broader demographic trend. Guernsey recorded 419 births in 2025, a figure that is expected to feed through into lower school rolls in the coming years.

Guernsey is experiencing a "striking" decline in birth rates, with 422 births recorded in 2024.

The number of Guernsey births has dropped by 33% in 10 years.

Guernsey has a births-per-1,000 rate of 6.5, making it one of the lowest performing of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, just above South Korea.

Montague said the decline in pupil numbers would require careful long-term planning, both for primary and secondary education.

A wider review of Guernsey's education offering is already scheduled to take place next year.

"We are going to see fewer children," he said. "It's an issue for education in how we organise our estate, but it's also an issue for Guernsey more broadly."

He added that the committee was taking a cautious approach to any future reforms, focusing on evidence and long-term sustainability rather than quick fixes.

"We don't want to rush into things or make decisions that are only right for five years. We've got to think way down the line," he said.

While falling numbers are expected to affect secondary schools in future, Montague said the sector was currently stable following years of reform, with progress being seen across the island's three high schools.

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