Labour relief after crucial northern Mayoralty win

The conclusion of this Mayoral by election brings to an end a rollercoaster six months for voters in Greater Manchester.

It was the second election residents in all 10 council areas had been asked to take part in after the locals in May, and for residents of the Gorton and Denton and Makerfield parliamentary constituencies, it was their third after by elections to choose new MPs.

Add in the summer holidays and it is perhaps no wonder the turnout was so low.

At just over a quarter it was higher that the first Mayoral election in 2017 but a chunk below the two most recent where a third had voted, always propelling Andy Burham to a stomping victory.

There will have been joy for Labour but also huge relief that Manchester city council leader, Bev Craig, has more than held onto the Mayoralty after the signs were looking ominous earlier in the year.

A key reason for Burnham being blocked from standing in Gorton and Denton was a fear that the Mayoralty would then be lost.

The victory there in February of The Green Party's Hannah Spencer saw Labour beaten back into third place behind Reform UK, in a seat they had previously held for nearly 100 years.

When Reform UK then swept the board at the May local elections, ultimately leading to Burnham's return to parliament and the end of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership, anxiety about Labour's red wall support being in freefall was only amplified.

Against that backdrop, the scale of Bev Craig's victory is pretty remarkable.

Craig's 47% of the vote on the first count, just short of the 50% required to win on first preferences, was well beyond the expectations even of optimistic Labour activists.

Second preferences saw her surge to 66% and a result seen as crucial to the party's northern project was cemented.

Craig was by far the most established politician on the slate, having been city council leader and deputy Mayor since 2021.

Her policy offer was also more detailed than her opponents because her party has agreed all the devolution deals and funding pots that she'll now be responsible for.

But while as Labour's candidate she could claim part credit for what are considered Burnham's achievements - the Bee network and the city region's impressive economic growth - she also faced scrutiny for the things he's been criticised for.

This included the lack of affordable housing in the city centre's skyscrapers and concerns about anti-social behaviour in places like Piccadilly Gardens.

Big themes in this campaign have been housing, growing local economies and public transport with a key question for those standing being whether to continue the schemes underway.

Craig's promised to extend the free bus pass from 16-18 year olds to 11-18 year olds and committed to building 50,000 new homes over the next 15 years.

One thing all candidates agreed on was a need to boost the outer towns and Craig says she'll do that with a £20m pot for grants to support high street businesses.

She will also champion Greater Manchester's 'Good Growth' strategy which last year announced it would fund three projects in each of the ten boroughs over the next decade aimed at kickstarting local economic growth.

She begins her term from a position of strength many considered out of reach.

When the by election was triggered in June it was thought Reform UK would be genuine contenders and the first poll of public opinion suggested they'd win on the first round of counting, albeit falling behind Labour when second preferences were added.

It can't have helped their candidate, Sian Astley, a recently elected Manchester councillor, when her leader Nigel Farage triggered his own parliamentary by election in Clacton.

It meant he wasn't seen at all on the campaign trail.

Polling just 21% in the first round after their success in the local elections now appears underwhelming.

For the Greens too, hopes that they'd kick on from winning their first northern MP in Gorton and Denton and a much improved showing at the locals began to fade as the campaign wore on.

Coming third with just 12% suggests the public didn't buy their claim that they were the party who could prevent Reform winning.

Restore Britain came fourth on nearly 9% with the Conservatives fifth on nearly eight.

It will be alarming for the Tories that they were beaten by two fairly new parties on the right.

Disappointing too for the Liberal Democrats in sixth who lost their deposit with less than 3% of the vote. Independent Marcus Farmer came in last with 0.6%.

While she openly admits to being a big fan of Andy Burnham's work, Bev Craig is clear she wants to make her own mark as Mayor of Greater Manchester.

She now has two years to do that before facing the electorate again.

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