'Perfect storm' could lead to rubbish piling up on Scotland's streets, experts warn

Scotland's waste sector is on the verge of a crisis which could see rubbish piling up on the streets, experts have warned.

They say the combination of significantly reduced landfill space and a breakdown of Glasgow's main incinerator have created a "perfect storm" which could see waste left uncollected.

Industry representatives are due to meet ministers to discuss their concerns but say there's no obvious short-term solution to avoid the crisis.

The Scottish government said was working with stakeholders to maintain resilience and identify contingency arrangements should they be required.

Landfill capacity in Scotland has been shrinking as operators wind down their operations ahead of a forthcoming ban on sending black bag waste to landfill sites.

That had been due to come into effect at the start of this year, but was delayed until January 2028 after a Disclosure investigation reported that 100 lorry loads of waste would have to be sent to England by road each day.

Last year there were 10 sites which took in most of Scotland's residual waste – the material left over after recyclable and compostable materials have been separated out.

However, that has now been reduced to just three, one of which is in administration.

The problems have been exacerbated by the breakdown of Glasgow's main incinerator at Polmadie, which has been out of action since April.

Welding cracks were identified during routine inspections and the facility is not expected to resume operations until next March.

Much of the city's household waste is currently being diverted to a large landfill site at Mount Vernon - but its operator, Patersons, says it only has a few months of space available for burying the rubbish.

The amount of rubbish being processed there has increased from about 2,000 tonnes to 5,000 tonnes a week.

An application to extend the site has been refused on appeal by the Scottish government.

The operator estimates that it will be full by the end of the year.

The ban on sending black bag waste to landfill was designed to encourage more recycling, with the residual waste being sent instead to incinerators where it is burned to create electricity.

The proposals sparked a rapid rise in plans to build waste to energy facilities, which led in 2022 to a ban on new applications

This was introduced because of concerns that Scotland would end up with more incinerators than needed to deal with the available waste, particularly if recycling rates increased.

But the amount of household waste being recycled has barely changed in a decade.

A fresh report published last month by Zero Waste Scotland concluded that most incinerators are operating well below their maximum capacity, which suggests the capacity gap might have been miscalculated.

Several more sites are under construction, including the South Clyde Energy Centre at North Cardonald, but are not expected to be ready quickly enough to address the current issues.

Several sites in the north of England, some of which are understood to have received waste from Scotland, have been shut down by the Environment Agency following investigations into suspected illegal waste activity.

Landfill manager David Balmer, who works with Mount Vernon's operator Patersons, said it was possible that Scotland would quickly run out of landfill space.

He said the Polmadie breakdown had created a perfect storm.

"Could you see waste on the street? Absolutely," he said.

Balmer said councils and waste management contractors were under an obligation to collect the rubbish.

"But if they can't process it further down the line, what's the easier solution?

"The easier solution is to leave in the streets at the moment, pending a solution. The problem is we can't see a solution."

Waste consultant Alasdair Meldrum, of Albion Environmental, says he has not seen such a looming crisis in almost 40 years of working in the industry.

He says there are already commercial operators who are struggling to find outlets to send their waste, with some being sent hundreds of miles to locations in England.

Meldrum added: "There's no easy solution. There are a number of landfill sites that could develop more void space but you can't do the engineering work in the winter.

"There's no real short-term solution. We've got ourselves into a real problem."

One possible solution is for householders to reduce the amount of black bag waste they generate by sending more for recycling.

However, rates of recycling have barely changed in Scotland over the last decade.

Zero Waste Scotland has estimated that more than half of domestic residual waste could be recycled.

One of the biggest elements is food waste which, if collected separately, could be processed through anaerobic digestion.

However, environmental group Friends of the Earth Scotland believes its policy which is to blame rather than the actions of individual households.

Kim Pratt, circular economy campaigner, says there has been far too much focus on incineration and not enough on reducing how much waste is in the system.

She added: "That makes all these problems much easier to solve. It reduces the expense for households, it makes it easier to meet the landfill ban and it reduces the need for incineration."

Glasgow City Council said general waste was being disposed of at a range of alternative sites, including other energy from waste facilities.

A spokesman added: "We are satisfied there is sufficient capacity in the overall system to ensure general waste is disposed of appropriately while the Grrec is offline for repair.

"Residents should continue to use their household bins as normal. Recycling services are unaffected by the current issues."

The council and Viridor, which operates the incinerator, say they are working to bring the facility at Polmadie back on line once repair work is complete.

The Scottish government's climate action secretary Gillian Martin insists that shifting to an economy where materials are kept in use for as long as possible, rather than being routinely disposed of, is essential.

She acknowledged a need for "sufficient strategic landfill capacity" to be available during the transition process while some materials cannot yet be recycled or reused.

She added: "We've been working closely with stakeholders to monitor capacity, maintain resilience and identify appropriate contingency arrangements should they be required."