Presidency bid while continuing court fight a gamble for Le Pen

Marine Le Pen's decision to do two things at once is something of a gamble.

The leader of the hard-right National Rally (RN) party is going to run for the French presidency next year, availing herself of the appeal court's decision to effectively remove her bar on public office.

But she is at the same time going to take her case to the French High Court of Appeal, the Court of Cassation.

Le Pen is doing this because she says she is innocent – after two courts now have found her guilty.

She says it is a point of principle. She does not want to present herself before French voters as a person with a criminal conviction.

By going to Cassation, her conviction is suspended and she is presumed innocent.

However the risk is this.

Had she accepted the appeal court's decision on Tuesday, it could have been interpreted as her admitting her guilt – something her opponents would have made much of during the election.

But it would also have probably meant Le Pen could conduct a normal campaign.

True, she was obliged to wear an electronic ankle tag for a year as part of the appeal court sentence. But with good behaviour and regular sentence reduction this could have been brought down to a few months – in time for the campaign proper in 2027.

But by going to Cassation, that is all put on hold. She has no electronic ankle tag now.

But should France's highest court accelerate its deliberations, and rule, say in January, that it upholds the appeal court's verdict, then she would be made to serve that part of her sentence straight away – forced to wear a tag just as her campaign was kicking off.

What may be happening here is lawyers for Le Pen's RN party reckon they can string the appeal out for many months – so it rules after the election.

In that case, if Le Pen has been elected head of state, she will be immune and not have to wear the electronic tag until she leaves office. Job done.

But that is banking on the court moving at its usual glacial pace. What if the judges there feel they are being manipulated by the RN?

They might choose to push for a quick decision – and land her in something of a difficult spot.