Is Trump's $5,000 pledge a sign of panic?

We all know that Donald Trump does not feel the need to adhere to the normal rules of political campaigning. Even by his own unconventional standards, his extravagant promise to pay every American citizen $5,000 (£3,700) if the Republicans win the midterm elections was bizarre.

This enormous cash pledge was not the headline of his keynote address at the first night of his midterms Republican convention on Wednesday.

He slipped in the mention about an hour into his lengthy speech - just when the audience's attention was starting to waver.

The president offered no details on how this more than one-trillion-dollar pledge will be paid for or how the payments would be distributed.

Asked for more information, the White House said in a statement that "the announcement is the latest proof that President Trump does what the so-called 'experts' say cannot be done: he delivers for the American people", but gave no more specifics about how it would be implemented.

The announcement itself was met with enthusiastic applause from supporters inside the Republican convention arena in Dallas, Texas.

But Republicans in tight races in November's election - who need to win over sceptical swing voters, including moderate Republicans and independents - largely stayed away from the event.

And many of Trump's fellow Republicans were clearly taken by surprise. Some welcomed the announcement, but Republicans that are more critical of Trump were quick to denounce it.

Conservatives who have clashed with Trump before, especially over how the federal debt has continued to balloon under his presidency, were scathing in their response.

Thomas Massie, the Republican representative from Kentucky who lost his primary over Trump criticisms earlier this year, posted on X: "I don't know about you all, but frankly I'm insulted by the notion that my vote this November could be bought for 5k. Not to mention the inflation this would cause. All things considered, I cannot in good conscience accept a penny less than 10k!"

Senator Susan Collins, who swerved Dallas to campaign in Maine where she's facing a tight race for re-election, said: "Tax and spending decisions should be made based on the needs of the American people and the state of the economy, they should not appear to be tied to election results."

Democrats for their part have labelled it an "empty promise".

Legal experts say it's unlikely Trump could approve such a vast sum via a presidential executive order - but the president suggested on Thursday he wouldn't be going to Congress.

Speaking to the BBC's US partner CBS, he said he didn't think Congress would need to approve the spending, before adding: "I think they will do it, if we needed it."

But plenty of fiscally conservative Republican representatives would likely refuse to support this kind of spending.

Former Republican Representative Bob Good dismissed the "Trump dividend" as a "socialist vote-buying scheme".

But this convention was a reminder that Trump still dominates the party and, in the House of Representative at least, he has previously made them bend to his will on policies that don't chime with traditional conservative positions.

This is not the first time President Trump has made a cash promise to voters. Americans are still waiting for the $2,000 cheques he said they would each receive from the revenue generated from his trade tariffs. And the $5,000 payments that Elon Musk proposed would come from his Doge spending cuts have never materialised.

Trump has delivered on his promise to set up Trump saving accounts with a government contribution of $1,000 for children born during his term in office. And all members of the US military got a payment of $1,776 to celebrate America's 250th anniversary.

Is it a sign that Donald Trump fears that he is on course for a major defeat in November that he feels the need to make this kind of eye-catching election promise?

Despite the president not featuring on the ballot, voters often treat midterm elections as a referendum on the sitting president - and often the party in power struggles.

And less than two months out from election day, Trump faces historically low approval ratings.

His war with Iran has become increasingly unpopular, and its knock-on effects are hitting Americans at the petrol pump. Affordability is still a top issue for voters, and while inflation is down from its post-Covid peak under Joe Biden, it remains stubbornly high.

So does this pledge suggest an element of panic that he pulled this policy out of his back pocket before many of his closest allies had been told about it?

It is undoubtedly a highly unorthodox way of launching a major election pledge.

But Trump's political success has been built on his norm-breaking way of doing business.

His latest ploy could work – but only if voters believe he is serious about writing them a cheque.