Why Tories are talking about winning the next election

Political party conferences can be weird events - where positive thinking and hopeful rhetoric can crowd out reality.

If you spend enough time drinking and socialising with like-minded people anything can seem possible.

That could be one explanation for the upbeat mood of this year's Conservative gathering in Birmingham.

On the face of it, the party has made little progress since it was emphatically ejected from power in 2024. If an election was held tomorrow, it would do even worse than it did back then, according to some polls.

Yet senior figures, including leader Kemi Badenoch, are talking about winning the next general election outright and forming a government.

One reason for their optimism is that they appear to have seen off, for now, the threat of being destroyed or swallowed up by Reform UK - a prospect which hung over last year's conference amid swirling rumours of defections and speculation about deals with Nigel Farage.

Another is Badenoch herself, who appears to have made a positive impression on the public.

Her approval rating has soared in recent months and she is now one of only two party leaders with a net positive rating (the other being Prime Minister Andy Burnham), according to pollsters More In Common.

In a presentation to a packed fringe meeting, More In Common's Luke Tryl said the Tory leader is seen as a "breath of fresh air" by focus groups, with many voters on the right describing her as someone unafraid to "say it as it is".

In particular, her punchy performances at Prime Minister's Questions have made a strong impression, earning plaudits such as "intelligent", "professional" and "principled" from those who have seen her in action, according to Tryl.

But like Burnham, Badenoch's personal popularity has yet to transfer to her party, he added, with the Tories being seen as "outdated" and "divided".

It was not all gloom – in contrast to his presentation at last year's Tory conference – and there were "signs of recovery", Tryl said, with a large pool of voters out there who might consider voting Tory, under the right circumstances.

Conservatives freely admit the problem they have got is that voters don't trust them to deliver on any of their promises, when they had 14 years in government to do something about the problems they now say are so pressing.

"Of course, Kemi's ahead of us, we know that," Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the More in Common meeting.

"Because people do trust Kemi and they don't trust us, that's how I would put it in a nutshell.

"But we are building on that."

Badenoch answers the trust question by saying that the party is under new management now.

She has ditched some of the "culture war" rhetoric and is focusing hard on the economy, and setting out her guiding principles, which amount to a return to old-school Conservatism.

She is not saying that the party could win an election outright if it was held now, arguing that no one could.

But she has ruled out governing with Reform UK in a hung parliament, telling the BBC she would rather hold another election.

Hollinrake sounded a cautious note at the More In Common fringe.

"We are not where we need to be right now. We don't want an election right now, ideally. Ideally, it would come way down the track."

But deputy leader Alex Burghart was quick to stress that the party is making every effort to ensure it is ready for a snap election.

"We are preparing for an election now," he told the meeting.

"We are convinced we can win the election outright."

He claimed the Tories were more united than at any time in their recent history, with the possible exception of the aftermath of Boris Johnson's 2019 victory.

But they still trail Reform by four or five points in the polls and are as much as nine points behind Labour.

The next challenge for the party, former Scottish Conservative leader Dame Ruth Davidson said, was to become one of the "top two".

At that point, voters who want to see the back of Labour would start moving to the Tories in serious numbers, she argued.

Tactical voting could prove crucial at the next election, whenever it comes, with many people voting to keep parties out of power rather than for who they want to win.

The Tories think they have a strong hand here too.

"For the first time in history, the Conservative Party is now the least hated political party in the country," declared Hollinrake, to laughter and applause.

"When it comes to tactical voting, that's really important."

Not the most inspiring rallying cry you will hear at a party conference, perhaps, but it is grounded in reality.

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