Housing market 'fragile due to global unrest'

Estate agents and mortgage lenders have warned activity in Jersey's housing market could begin to slow due to global uncertainty caused by the outbreak of the Iran War.

The latest figures show average house prices fell by 5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Jersey estate agent, Bradley Vowden, said the market was still active, but the next three to six months looked tougher as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East had yet to fully filter through.

Mortgage lender, Gary Tumelty, said people were "starting to get nervous" and rushing to secure mortgage deals now, due to the prospect of the Bank of England base rate being increased later in the year.

Tumelty said: "I think the worrying signs are with the Bank of England forecast now potentially up to six rate rises.

"That might be a 1.5% rate increase coming up in the latter half of this year, which might start to put people off and reconsider their options.

He said he saw an average of 20 applications a month in 2025, and up to 50 a month at the beginning of 2026.

"People were definitely looking to move," he said.

"We are starting to see minor signs of a bit of a slowdown, so we do wonder if people are now starting to get nervous about rates and we've started to see a lot more people who were considering a mortgage earlier in the year trying to come back now, before rates do increase."

Vowden said he expected the next few months to look tougher.

He said: "The pricing of the Middle East hasn't filtered through.

"Transactions take six to eight weeks in sales.

"So we're only just seeing people struggling to get mortgage offers. Applications that are being made are taking longer.

"Fast forward and all of a sudden conflicts in the Middle East, inflation goes through the roof, oil prices fly and all of a sudden we're talking and having conversations that the base rate looks like."

He added that the cost of living in Jersey exacerbates the difficulties with the average three bedroom house now costing £695,000.

Vowden said: "The reality is that the average couple can only afford a one-bedroom flat.

"It's a million miles away from people's affordability based on earnings.

"And if that's only going to get worse, or going to get more challenging because rates are going to go up, the only thing that we can control is prices coming down.

"Because we can't control the mortgage rates."

In light of the upcoming Jersey election, Tumelty added that middle earners in the island had struggled in recent years, and politicians "would be wise to try and stimulate that market" for the good of Jersey's economy long-term.

"They (middle earners) are probably the people who are going out spending money in restaurants and bars and pubs and things like that," he said.

"They've lost tax breaks, they've lost mortgage interest relief, they've lost a lot of a lot of incentives really.

"I think any sort of politicians would be wise to try and stimulate that market to try and get people to spend money in Jersey, buy property, and that's only going to be good for the Jersey economy long term."

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