How a rise in ADHD benefits claims is adding to Andy Burnham's welfare challenge

Andy Burnham, who is expected to become prime minister in a matter of weeks, has said he wants to get the UK's benefits bill down by encouraging more people into work.

The total bill for working age sickness and disability benefits has been increasing rapidly since 2020. It currently stands at £58bn and has been projected to rise to £78bn by 2030, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

More than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition now receive Personal Independent Payments (Pip), the latest government figures show, an increase of 40% in these cases since Labour came to power two years ago.

It comes as an interim report by Sir Stephen Timms into Pip is expected to outline the need for sweeping reforms to the benefit system.

BBC Verify has been looking into the official figures around Pip claims and the wider numbers on the working-age welfare bill.

Pip is the working age benefit which helps individuals deal with the extra costs of having a physical or mental health condition or disability.

It was introduced in 2013 as a replacement for Disability Living Allowance (DLA).

You do not have to be out of work to claim Pip and it does not come with requirements to seek work.

People currently receive between £1,580 and £10,120 per year depending on the severity of their condition.

Official figures show total Pip claims in England and Wales now stand at 4 million, up from 3.6 million when Labour took power, an increase of around 400,000.

The overall rise in claimants continues an earlier upward trend that was clear under the previous Conservative government.

A growing share of new Pip claims since the 2020 pandemic have been related to mental health or neurodevelopmental conditions, with the share of total claims related to ADHD, autism, depression or anxiety rising from around 16.5% in 2020 to 24% in 2026.

The latest official statistics show the number of people claiming Pip with ADHD as their main condition was around 100,000 in April.

Just over half of these were aged 16 to 24.

That is up from around 70,000 when Labour took office in July 2024, an increase of 30,000 over that time.

An initial independent review for the Department of Health and Social Care this year found that the increase in people diagnosed with ADHD was likely due to a combination of factors from an improved recognition of the condition to more people seeking help and changing expectations of support.

It also stated that "where access to support is closely linked to diagnosis, demand for diagnostic assessment may increase".

Pip is the fastest growing part of the total working age sickness and disability bill, which was £58 billion in 2025.

That's roughly the same size as the budget for schools in England, which will be £66bn in 2027.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official forecaster, expects the total sickness and disability bill - which includes Pip and the health-related element of Universal Credit - to rise to £78 billion in cash terms by 2030.

The overall share of GDP spent on all non-pensioner welfare has actually fallen since 2010.

This decline reflects real-terms cuts to working-age benefits during the austerity years after the 2010 general election, including cuts to housing benefit and to elements of Universal Credit.

The OBR projects that this overall non-pensioner welfare bill as a share of GDP will remain broadly steady in the coming years rather than increasing sharply.

Some policy analysts argue that cuts to the welfare system since 2010 may have created a counterproductive incentive for people to claim sickness and disability benefits instead of other forms of support.

The previous Conservative government said it was necessary to cut welfare spending to help reduce the budget deficit.

Many experts agree that reform of parts of the working age welfare system is needed, but warn that is important to bear the overall context in mind too.

A government spokesperson said: "We inherited a broken welfare system and we are fixing it - a package of measures already coming into effect will save nearly £2 billion by the end of the decade, and the Timms Review, working with disabled people and their representative organisations, is looking at how to make Pip fit and fair for the future."