Sabon salon da Iran da Amurka ke amfani da shi a yaƙin da suke yi

Wata rana hare-hare, wata rana kuma zaman lafiya. Wannan wata al'ada ce da ta maimaitu sau da dama a rikicin da ke tsakanin Iran da Amurka a watannin bayan cimma yarjejeniyar Islamabad.

A cikin 'yan makonnin nan, sojojin Amurka sun kai hare-hare kan wasu tankokin dakon man fetur na Iran, inda Rundunar Tsakiyar Sojin Amurka (CENTCOM) ta ce hare-haren martani ne ga makaman linzami da dakarun IRGC na Iran suka harba kan wasu jiragen ruwa na Amurka.

Ita ma Rundunar IRGC ta sanar da kai hare-haren ramuwar gayya kan wasu jiragen ruwan Amurka da kuma wani sansanin sojin Amurka da ke Jordan.

Yayin da rikicin ke kara kamari, farashin danyen mai ya sake haura dala 100 kan kowace ganga. Sannan matakan soji da kungiyar Houthi ke dauka da kuma shigarta cikin rikicin sun kara dagula lamarin a yankin.

A wani bangare kuma, kalaman barazana da Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya yi, ciki har da barazanar mamaye tsibirin Kharg, sun kara jefa fargaba kan yiwuwar rikicin ya kara bazuwa a yankin.

Me ya sa Washington ke ƙara kai hare-haren soji yayin da ake tunkarar zaɓen rabin wa'adi, tare da ci gaba da kakaba shingen tattalin arziki da ya raunana Iran, kuma ta yaya waɗannan matakai suka sauya lissafin siyasa da dabarun ɓangarorin biyu?

Hare-hare kan jiragen dakon mai

Da yake bayani kan hare-haren da aka kai wa tankokin dakon man fetur, rundunar CENTCOM ta bayyana cewa tankokin na cikin wata hanyar samar da kuɗaɗen shiga ga rundunar IRGC ta Iran da ƙungiyoyin da ke da alaƙa da ita.

Bayan karo na farko na hare-haren, kwamandan CENTCOM Janar Brad Cooper ya ce Amurka ta ɗora wa Iran "babban asarar tattalin arziƙi" bayan kai hare-hare kan jiragen ruwa uku na Iran a matsayin martani ga harba makaman linzami da aka yi kan jiragen ruwanta biyu.

Kwana uku bayan haka kuma, an sake kai hare-hare kan wasu ƙarin tankokin dakon mai guda biyar.

Hare-haren sun haifar da tambayoyi a tsakanin masu sharhi kan ko Amurka na neman sauya manufofinta game da Iran.

Hamidreza Azizi, babban mai nazari kan al'amuran Iran a ƙungiyar International Crisis Group, ya shaida wa BBC cewa: "Ba na ganin akwai wani sauyi a manufofin Amurka. A zahiri, Iran ce ɓangaren da ya sauya dabarunsa."

Ya ce a halin yanzu Amurka na son ci gaba da matsin lambar da take yi ta ruwa domin takaita harkokin Iran, yayin da Iran kuma ke ƙoƙarin sauya yanayin ta hanyar ɗaukar wata sabuwar dabara mai tsauri da nuna ƙarfi.

Jiragen ruwan da Iran ke ƙoƙarin kai wa hari na taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen aiwatar da wannan matsin lambar da ake yi mata ta teku.

Azizi ya ce ta hanyar ƙara wa waɗannan hare-haren tsada, Amurka na ƙoƙarin samar da shinge ga masu yanke shawara a Iran tare da hana jami'an ƙasar bayar da umarnin sake kai wasu hare-hare.

A wannan lissafi, dakile hare-haren Iran zai ba da damar ci gaba da matsin tattalin arziƙin da Washington ke ganin zai tilasta wa Tehran amincewa da buƙatunta.

A farkon lokacin da aka fara wannan matsin lamba, wasu masu sa ido sun yi hasashen cewa matsin soji da tattalin arziƙi kan Iran zai sa gwamnatin ƙasar miƙa wuya.

Sai dai har zuwa yanzu, wannan dabara ba ta kai Amurka ga cimma manufofinta ba.

Farfesa Brandt Cassler, malamin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami'ar James Madison, shi ma na ganin wataƙila makasudin waɗannan hare-hare shi ne sanya Iran cikin mawuyacin hali, kuma wataƙila a tilasta mata komawa teburin tattaunawa.

Sai dai a lokaci guda yana nuna shakku kan tasirin wannan manufa, inda ya shaida wa BBC cewa:

"Ban ga wata bayanniyar dabara a cikin matakan da gwamnatin Amurka ke ɗauka ba, kuma ba na ganin wannan manufa tana da tasiri sosai."

Ya ƙara da cewa:

"Ci gaba da hare-haren ramuwar gayya da ake yi, aƙalla zuwa yanzu, na nuna cewa har yanzu farashin da aka ɗora wa Iran bai kai matakin da zai hana Tehran maimaita irin waɗannan hare-hare ba."

Lissafin Iran lokacin zaben Amurka

A cikin 'yan makonnin nan, bayan ci gaba da matsin tattalin arziƙi da kuma killace Iran ta ruwa da Amurka ke yi, jami'an sojin Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta Iran sun sha jaddada buƙatar sake nazarin dabarun ƙasar a wannan rikici, tare da tattauna yiwuwar rungumar wata manufa mai tsauri.

Wani ɓangare na lissafin jami'an Iran ya ta'allaka ne kan fatan cewa ƙarin farashin mai a kasuwannin duniya zai ƙara tsadar makamashi a Amurka, lamarin da ka iya ƙara matsin lamba na cikin gida kan gwamnatin Donald Trump.

Hare-haren baya-bayan nan da mayaƙan Houthi suka kai a Saudiyya da kuma barazanar da ke tattare da mashigin Bab al-Mandab sun kuma ƙara tayar da hankula game da tsaron samar da makamashi, abin da zai iya ƙarfafa dabarun da Tehran ke bi.

Sai dai duk da cewa masu sharhi sun kasu kashi kan ko wannan matsin lamba zai kai matakin da zai sa Donald Trump ya sake duba ko ya sauya manufofinsa game da Iran, jami'an Iran na da fata cewa aiwatar da waɗannan tsauraran matakai a ƙarshe zai sa shugaban Amurka ya kai ga wannan matsaya.

Zabukan Amurka

A jawabinsa na ranar 9 ga watan Satumba, Donald Trump ya danganta ƙarshen yaƙin da zaɓe, inda ya yi hasashen cewa rikicin zai ƙare nan take bayan an kaɗa ƙuri'a.

Ya yi iƙirarin cewa Iran na ci gaba da juriya ne domin yin tasiri kan zaɓen, amma a cewarsa ba za ta iya ci gaba da jure matsin tattalin arziƙin da ake yi mata ba.

Daga wannan bayani, ana iya fahimtar cewa Trump har yanzu na fatan shawo kan wannan lokaci ta hanyar ci gaba da matsin lamba kan Tehran da kuma tilasta mata sassauta matsayinta, ko da kuwa hare-haren ramuwar gayya za su ci gaba har zuwa lokacin zaɓen.

A wata hira da ya yi da CNN kwanan nan, Sanatan Jam'iyyar Republican Ted Cruz ya yi amfani da kalmar "rikicin soja" wajen bayyana halin da ake ciki. Wani masani kan harkokin siyasa, Brandt Cussler, ya fassara wannan a matsayin wani ɓangare na ƙoƙarin 'yan Republican na rage muhimmancin yaƙin a idanun jama'a kafin zaɓe.

Ya ce:

"Idan hare-hare na ci gaba da gudana, yawanci mutane ba sa yarda cewa yaƙin ya ƙare."

A cewarsa, yayin da 'yan Democrat ke mayar da hankali kan tsadar yaƙi da hauhawar farashin man fetur, mai zaɓen da ke jin wannan tasiri a duk lokacin da ya je sayen mai ba zai ɗauki rikicin a matsayin wani abu mai nisa da rayuwarsa ba.

Iran na fatan cewa tashin farashin makamashi zai yi tasiri kan zaɓen Amurka, amma har yanzu ba a san irin yadda wannan matsin lamba zai shafi shawarar Trump ba.

Idan wannan lissafin na Tehran bai yi tasiri ba kafin lokacin kaɗa ƙuri'a, Iran na iya tsinci kanta cikin mawuyacin hali na tattalin arziƙi tare da rage damar da za ta iya amfani da damuwar 'yan Republican game da zaɓen domin cimma manufofinta.

A irin wannan yanayi kuma, Trump zai fuskanci ƙarancin sabbin zaɓuɓɓuka wajen tinkarar rikicin, yayin da matsin lamba kan bangarorin biyu zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa.