Uko Aba-Houthi bariko baratsimbataza ubucuti n'ibihugu vyo mw'Ihembe rya Afrika

Umuhari w'Aba-Houthi wo muri Yemeni uzwi kw'izina rya Ansar Allah bisa n'uwarushirije kugira inguvu n'ijambo mu karere inyuma yo kwigarurira uturere dukomakomeye hafi y'Umuhora wa Bab al-Mandab hamwe n'ibitero bikomeye wagiye ugaba ku bibanza biri kure cane imbere muri Arabia Sawudite. Ivyo vyerekana intambwe idasanzwe uno muhari wateye mu vya gisirikare muri iyi myaka mike iheze.

Uteye izi ntambwe mu gihe hari ibimenyetso vyiyongera vyerekana ko Aba-Houthi bariko bagura ibikorwa vyabo n'ubucuti ku mpande zompi z'Ikiyaga Gitukura (Mer Rouge).

Icegeranyo cashizwe ahabona mu kwezi guheze n'ishirahamwe ry'ubushakashatsi rya The Century Foundation ry'i New York muri Amerika cerekanye ko hari imigenderanire iriko irakomera hagati y'Aba-Houthi n'imirwi y'inyeshamba ikorera mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika.

Icegeranyo c'Ishirahamwe Mpuzamakungu ONU na co nyene gishira ahabona ibimenyetso vy'uguhanahana ibirwanisho, abarwanyi hamwe n'inyigisho za gisirikare hagati y'Aba-Houthi n'umwe muri iyo mirwi, ari wo wa Al-Shabaab wo muri Somalia, usanzwe ufitaniye isano na Al-Qaeda.

None ubucuti Aba-Houthi bamaze kwubaka n'akarere k'Ihembe rya Afrika bugeze ku rugero rungana gute? Hoba hariko haravuka urunani rw'akarere rw'imihari y'inyeshamba nk'uko bivugwa mu cegeranyo ca The Century Foundation? Hanyuma kandi, ugutsimbatara kw'ubu bucuti kwoba kuzotuma haba ugukorera hamwe mu ntambara ziri ku mpande zompi z'Ikiyaga Gitukura?

Imigenderanire na Al-Shabaab

Nadwa Al-Dawsari, umushakashatsi ku kigo Center for Armed Groups akaba n'umwe mu bateguye icegeranyo ca The Century Foundation, yabwiye ishami rya BBC rikoresha ururimi rw'Icarabu ( BBC Arabic) ko mu ntango imigenderanire myinshi Aba-Houthi bafitaniye n'akarere k'Ihembe rya Afrika yari ishingiye ku nyungu z'ubudandaji no ku masezerano yihariye.

Agira ati: "Aba-Houthi kuva kera bamye bakorana n'abakora magendo hamwe n'imirwi y'inkozi z'ikibi mw'Ihembe rya Afrika mu kwunguruza ibirwanisho, abantu n'ibintu, ariko twasanze iyo migenderanire yarakomeye cane, cane cane inyuma y'ivyabaye kw'itariki 7 Gitugutu (10)".

Ikimenyetso kigaragaza neza ingene aba ba Houthis bariko bagura ubucuti muri ako karere kiva muri Somalia, aho ubucuti hagati ya Ansar Allah na Al-Shabaab bwakomeye cane muri iyi myaka ya vuba, nk'uko biri mu cegeranyo ca Century Foundation be no mu cegeranyo c'abahinga ba ONU.

Icegeranyo ca ONU casohotse mu mwaka uheze cerekana ko uku gufashanya hagati y'izi mpande zibiri kwiyongereye cane, bukarenga uguhanahana ibirwanisho bugashika no mu nyigisho za gisirikare, ubuhinga bwo gutunganya ibikorwa vya gisirikare, ugusangira ubumenyi bwa gisirikare hamwe no mu vy'ibikoresho. Iki cegeranyo kivuga ko ibi bishobora guhungabanya umutekano, atari uwa Yemeni gusa, ariko n'uw'akarere kose.

Iki cegeranyo cerekana ko uku gukorana na al-Shabaab atari ukwubaka ubucuti gusa bwogirira akamaro impande zompi, ahubwo ko kuri mu mikenyuro y'Aba-Houthi wo kwiyagurira akarere yogiramwo ijambo.

Kivuga kandi ko inzego za Somalia zafashe ibirwanisho n'ibiturika vyari vyinjijwe mu gihugu mu kinyegero bivuye muri Yemen, kandi ko Umunya-Somalia mu bakorana na Al-Shabaab yemeye ko yafashije gutunganya ingendo z'Abanya-Somalia bagera ku 400 kugira bahabwe inyigisho za gisirikare n'iza poritike mu turere tugenzurwa n'Aba-Houthi muri Yemen.

Iki cegeranyo kivuga ko abahinga ba ONU babwiwe ko Al-Shabaab ifise kandi ibikorwa ikorera mu ntara ya Hadramawt muri Yemen, aho abamuka muri Somalia bafise uruhara rwo kugura ibirwanisho ku ba Houthi bakabijana muri Somalia mu kinyegero.

Icegeranyo ca The Century Foundation ciswe "From Subordinate to Pivotal: The Houthis in Africa" kivuga ko Aba-Houthi bagerageza kwigisha abarwanyi bashasha ba Somalia muri Yemen, kandi ko abahinga b'aba-Houthi bagendera mu turere tugenzurwa na Al-Shabaab muri Somalia.

Kivuga kandi ko muri izi nyigisho harimwo guhingura ibisasu, guhindura indege zitajamwo abadereva (drones) kugira zishobore gukora ibikorwa bimwe bimwe, hamwe no gusanasana no kubungabunga ibirwanisho.

Al-Dawsari avuga ko Aba-Houthi bariko "barashinga imizi mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika biciye mu kwongereza imirwi bakorana, gukomeza imigenderanire , hamwe no kwishikira ku rubuga, mu gihe Al-Shabaab yo yungukira ku birwanisho, ubuhinga n'ubumenyi vya gisirikare Aba-Houthi baronse mu myaka irenga icumi y'intambara muri Yemen".

Ariko Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi, umuhinga mu vya gisirikare afitaniye ubucuti n'umuhari w'aba-Houthi, Ansar Allah, arahakana ayo makuru y'ubucuti hagati y'aba-Houthi na Al-Shabaab, akavuga gusa ko bahuriye ku vyiyumviro vy'ubutagongwa.

Yabwiye BBC ati: "Dufatiye ku makuru ahari, ntibishoboka ko haba imigenderanire hagati ya Ansar Allah na Al-Shabaab muri Somalia, kandi biragoye kwiyumvira ko Sana'a yohava yubaka ubucuti ubwo ari bwo bwose n'iyi mirwi, ku nyungu izo ari zo zose".

Abaza ati: "Mu gihe Sana'a iri mu ntambara nk'iyi, yoshobora gute kurungika ibirwanisho muri Somalia?"

Al-Zubaidi kandi aratunga urutoki ivyegeranyo vya ONU kuri iki kibazo, avuga ko ahanini vyubakiye ku makuru y'Abanyaburaya canke Abanyamerika kandi ko ata buryo bwigenga bwo kubihinyuza.

Ku ruhande rwiwe, Hazem Al-Assad, umwe mu barongoye umuhari Ansar Allah muri Sanaa, yaramushigikiye, avuga ko bimwe muri ibi vyegeranyo bishingiye ku makuru "y'ibinyoma kandi mabi ya Arabia Sawudite", akavuga ko ikiraje ishinga uno muhari ari amagorwa abanyagihugu ba Yemen barimwo, "bivuye ku bitero n'ingingo zo kubugarana za reta ya Arabia Sawudite", nk'uko abivuga.

Ni ngombwa kumenya ko Aba-Houthi na al-Shabaab bafise intego zitandukanye kandi bakora mu buryo butandukanye. Iyi mirwi yompi kandi iratandukanye mu bijanye n'akarangamutima: Aba-Houthi bakurikira ishami rya Zaidi ry'aba-Islam b'aba-Shia, mu gihe abarwanyi ba al-Shabaab ari Abasuni. None ubwo bucuti hagati y'iyi mirwi ibiri buzobandanya bushingiye ku nyungu gusa, canke bushobora kuzovamwo ikindi kirenze ico?

Mu majambo yabwiye BBC News Arabic, Prof. Stig Jarl Hansen, yigisha ibijanye na poritike kuri Kaminuza ya Norvège, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, akaba ari n'umwanditsi w'igitabo "Al-Shabaab in Somalia: History and Ideology of an Armed Islamist Movement", avuga ati: "Kubera itandukaniro riri mu karangamutima hagati y'izo mpande zompi, harimwo n'uko ubwo bucuti bushobora gutuma bamwe mu bashaka kwinjira muri al-Shabaab babiheba, nibaza ko ubu bucuti bushingiye ku co zimariraniye".

Yongerako ati: "Hashobora kuba hari bamwe mu ndongozi za al-Shabaab bipfuza kwungukira ku bumenyi Aba-Houthi bafise mu guhingura amadrone. Muri rusangi, al-Shabaab yarashoboye kwegeranya amafaranga menshi, iki kigashobora kuba ari kimwe mu bikwegakwega Aba-Houthi".

Ariko Al-Dossari we yemera ko ubu bucuti buri hagati y'izo mpande zompi mu gihe kiri imbere bushobora gutuma haba isano kandi rishobora kuzogora kusambura hagati y'intambara yo muri Yemen n'iyo muri Somalia, igihugu kimaze hafi imyaka mirongo ibiri kiri mu ntambara hagati ya reta iri i Mogadishu n'umurwi al-Shabaab.

Yagize ati: "Iyo umaze kwubaka ubucuti bwihariye, uburyo bwo guhanahana inyigisho, inzira zo gutwara ibigwanisho n'imihora yo guhanahana ubumenyi bwa gisirikare, ibi vyose birashobora kubandanya n'igihe ivyatumye iyi mirwi ija hamwe bishitse bigahinduka. Iki ni co gituma ubu bucuti butera amakenga".

Kwagura ibikorwa ku mpande zompi z'Ikiyaga Gitukura

Somalia si co gihugu conyene c'Ihembe rya Afrika kiriko kirakwegakwega Aba-Houthi. Icegeranyo ca The Century Foundation kiravuga kandi Djibouti, Sudani na Eritrea nk'ibindi bihugu biriko birabona ibikorwa canke imigenderanire y'Aba-Houthi irushiriza kwaguka, canke bishobora kuzoshoboza uno murwi kugira ijambo muri kazoza.

Ukungene igihugu kanaka giteye bishobora gufasha gusobanura igituma Aba-Houthi bashaka kwongereza amasoko bakuramwo ibikoresho bahinguramwo ibirwanisho, cane cane nka Djibouti, igihugu kiri ku bwinjiriro bwo mu bumanuko bw'Ikiyaga Gitukura, kirabana na Yemen, kandi kikaba gifise kimwe mu bivuko bihambaye kuruta ibindi muri ako karere, Ikivuko ca Djibouti, kiri hafi y'Umuhora wa Bab el-Mandeb.

Iki cegeranyo kivuga ko iki kivuko cahindutse ikigo gikomeye c'ibikorwa vya magendo vy'Aba-Houthi, kandi ko Aba-Houthi bakoresha uburyo n'ibigo vy'ubudangaji bisanzwe bihari kugira baronke ibikoresho bakenera, hanyuma bakabijana muri Yemen.

Ariko Al-Zubaidi avuga ko ico kivuko kigenzurwa na ONU, akibaza rero ukuntu cokorerwamwo magendo kandi hariho abagenzuzi ba Amerika na Arabia Sawudite bakurikiranira hafi ibihakorerwa.

Iki cegeranyo kandi kivuga ko kuva hagati mu mwaka wa 2024, Aba-Houthi batanguye gufasha igisirikare ca Sudani mu ntambara gihanganyemwo n'umuhari wa Rapid Support Forces (RSF), mu kuyiha ibirwanisho bito bito kw'izina rya Irani.

Gisubiramwo amasoko atari make avuga ko hari aba Houthi baba canke bakorera ku kivuko ca Sudani, bakoresha nk'ihuriro ry'ibikoresho n'amafaranga, hamwe n'uguhanahana ibirwanisho n'abarwanyi hagati ya Sudani na Yemeni biciye mu Kiyaga Gitukura. Naho hari ibimenyetso vyinshi vy'aya makuru, iki cegeranyo kivuga ko atari ntabanduka.

Ku bijanye na Eritrea, icegeranyo kivuga ko hoba hari utwigoro two gusubira kwubaka imigenderanire hagati y'ico gihugu n'Aba-Houthi babifashijwemwo na Irani, mu ntumbero yo gukoresha Eritrea nk'inzira y'ibirwanisho bija muri Yemeni. Ariko ibimenyetso bihari ntibiratomora neza ko ibi biriko biraba.

Al-Dossari avuga ko kubona ata vyemezo ntabanduka bikwiye bihari "bitodutuma twirengagiza ivyo turiko turabona mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika", akongerako ati: "Hari icigwa twakuye ku ntambara yo muri Yemeni: ntibikwiye gusuzugura Aba-Houthi kubera ko ivyemezo bibuze canke bidakwiye. Ndibuka ko mu myaka nk'icumi iheze hariho impari nyinshi ku rugero Iran yashigikira Aba-Houthi, kandi ivyo vyaterwa ahanini n'uko ata bimenyetso bikomeye vyari bihari. Igihe habonekeye ivyemezo ntakuka, Aba-Houthi bari bamaze kwiyubaka bikomeye mu vya gisirikare, imigenderanire yabo na Iran yari yakomeye cane kandi ntivyari vyoroshe guhangana na bo".

Ku bijanye n'imigenderanire na Eritrea, Abdul Ghani al-Zubaidi agira ati: "Nizigiye ko hazoba imigenderanire kandi ko Eritrea izokwemera ubutegetsi bwa Sana'a". Ariko ntiyemera ko Eritrea yoba ifise inyota nyinshi yo gutsimbataza imigenderanire n'umugwi w'Aba-Houthi muri Yemen. Yerekana imyidogo y'Abanyayemeni bavuga ko abasirikare ba Eritrea babangamira abarovyi b'Abanyayemeni mu mazi yegukira Yemeni, hamwe n'impungenge Sana'a ifise ko Eritrea ishobora kugiriranira imigenderanire na Amerika, ibintu bishobora guteza ikibazo canke kubangamira umutekano wa Yemen.

None hari urunani rw'akarere rwoba ruriko ruravuka?

Icegeranyo ca The Century Foundation kivuga ko ukwaguka kw'ibikorwa vy'Aba-Houthi mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika, ku nkengera z'Ikiyaga Gitukura n'Ikigobe ca Aden, bisa n'utwigoro Iran hamwe n'umugwi wa Hezbollah wo muri Libani batanguye mu ntango z'iki kinjana kugira bashinge urufatangane rw'imirwi yitwaje ibirwanisho mu Buseruko bwo Hagati.

Uru rufatangane ni rwo rwaje guhabwa izina rya "urunani rwo kwirwanako" (axis of resistance), iki cegeranyo kikavuga ko Aba-Houthi bariko bagerageza gushinga imizi gusumba, kugira bagire icicaro gishasha c'uru runani.

Ariko Prof. Hansen we abona ko kuvuga ko ubu bucuti buhari ubu bwerekana ivuka ry'urunani rwagutse rw'akarere rugizwe n'imirwi yitwaje ibirwanisho ari "ukurenza urugero", akongerako ati "ibikorwa vy'Aba-Houthi muri Afrika biracari ku rugero ruto kandi biri kure cane y'urugero rw'ibikorwa vya Iran".

Uruhara rwa Iran ruratuma kandi iki kibazo kirushirizaho kugoranya. Hari ubucuti bukomeye hagati ya Tehran n'Aba-Houthi, bakaba bahabwa na Irani imfashanyo za gisirikare, ariko kandi bakaba bamaze gutera intambwe ikomeye mu bushobozi bwabo bwo kwihingurira ibirwanisho. Gusa, imigenderanire bafitaniye na Tehran ntisigura ko Iran ibaganza canke ibagenzura muri.

Prof. Hansen agira ati: "Aba-Houthi barakorana na Iran, ariko si igikoresho ca Tehran. Incuti z'Aba-Houthi zishobora gushigikira Iran igihe cose bitobabera umutwaro uremereye".

Ikibazo gica kiza ni: hoba hari ibimenyetso vyerekana ko imigenderanire y'Aba-Houthi n'imirwi yitwaje ibirwanisho yo mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika iriko irahinduka urunani rw'akarere rushobora kurama no gukomera?

Abdul Ghani al-Zubaidi avuga ko imigenderanire hagati y'umurwi w'Aba-Houthi wa Ansar Allah n'ibihugu vyo mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika ikiri "ku rugero ruto", agasigura ati: "Turipfuza kugira intambwe igaragara mu vy'umutekano, poritike canke ubutunzi n'igihugu ico ari co cose kiri ku nkengera z'Ikiyaga Gitukura canke kiri hafi yacu. Ariko ndibaza ko Aba-Houthi uno musi barajwe ishinga cane n'ingene boronka ibifungurwa n'ibirwanisho, kuko ubu turi mu bihe vy'intambara".

Al-Dossari we avuga ko bizogorana kumenya urugero ubu bucuti buzoba bumeze mu gihe kiri imbere, kuko bishoboka ko bizobandanya bikorwa mu mpisho. Ariko avuga ati: "Ico nzokwama nkurikirana ni ibimenyetso vyerekana ko hari ubushobozi canke ubuhinga buriko burahanahanwa.

"Nk'akarorero, kubona al-Shabaab canke iyindi mirwi yitwaje ibirwanisho mu karere k'Ihembe rya Afrika ikoresha amadrone canke ibirwanisho bifise ibimenyetso vy'ubuhinga bw'Aba-Houthi canke bwa Iran; canke ko ikora ibitero canke ubwambuzi bwo mu mazi mu Kigobe ca Aden no mu burengero bw'Ibahari Indiyano ku rwego rwo hejuru; canke hakaboneka ukwiyongera kw'ibikorwa vy'Aba-Houthi muri Somalia; canke ibikorwa vya magendo, guhanahana inyigisho n'ibikoresho vya gisirikare bigakorwa ku rwego rwo hejuru kandi bitunganijwe neza".

Al-Dossari yongerako ko, mu gihe iyi migenderanire yorushiriza gukomera, ivyago ku mutekano wo mu mazi mu Muhora wa Bab al-Mandab no mu Kigobe ca Aden bishobora kwiyongera kandi bikagira ubushobozi bwo guhinduka hakurikijwe ibihe. Ivyo vyotuma bigora cane kubimenya, kumenya ababiri inyuma yavyo no kubihagarika.