Ni iki cyihishe inyuma y'ikibatsi mu mubano wa RD Congo na Israel isanzwe ari inshuti y'u Rwanda?

Abasesenguzi babiri kuri Repubulika ya Demokarasi ya Congo (DRC) no ku karere k'ibiyaga bigari babwiye BBC Gahuzamiryango ko ikibatsi kigaragara mu mubano w'icyo gihugu na Israel gifitanye isano n'intambara yo mu burasirazuba n'umubano Israel ifitanye n'u Rwanda n'Amerika.

Mu ntangiriro y'uku kwezi, Perezida wa DRC Félix Tshisekedi yagiriye uruzinduko rw'akazi i Yeruzalemu – aherekejwe n'abandi bategetsi barimo Minisitiri w'ububanyi n'amahanga Thérèse Kayikwamba, rwaje rukurikira urwo Perezida wa Israel Isaac Herzog yagiriye i Kinshasa mu Gushyingo (11) mu mwaka ushize.

Ku mugaragaro, impande zombi zatangaje ko urwo ruzinduko rwa Tshisekedi rwari mu rwego rwo gushimangira umubano mu by'umutekano n'ubukungu hagati y'ibihugu byombi.

Profeseri Jason Stearns, wigisha siyansi ya politike kuri Kaminuza ya Simon Fraser muri Canada, avuga ko umubano wa Tshisekedi na Israel "buri gihe wamye ari mwiza" ariko "ubu Tshisekedi acyeneye Israel cyane kurusha mu kindi gihe cyabayeho kandi ntekereza ko ibi ahanini ari ku mpamvu za gisirikare nubwo hari n'uruhande rwa politike rwabyo".

Dr Richard Moncrieff, ushinzwe akarere k'ibiyaga bigari mu kigo mpuzamahanga cyigenga cy'ubushakashatsi ku gucyemura amakimbirane (International Crisis Group), avuga ko umubano urimo kwiyongera ubu hagati y'ibihugu byombi ari "umusaruro w'ibiganiro byo ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane" byakomeje kuba kuva Tshisekedi akoreye uruzinduko rwe rwa mbere muri Israel mu Kwakira (10) mu 2021.

Moncrieff agira ati: "Ibyo biganiro byibanda ku bucuruzi, dipolomasi ariko cyane cyane bikibanda ku gisirikare n'umutekano."

Kuva mu Gushyingo mu 2021, ingabo za leta ya DRC (FARDC) zihanganye n'umutwe w'inyeshyamba wa M23, wigaruriye ibice binini byo mu ntara ya Kivu ya Ruguru na Kivu y'Epfo mu burasirazuba bw'icyo gihugu, birimo n'umujyi wa Goma na Bukavu, mu ntangiriro y'umwaka wa 2025. U Rwanda rushinjwa na raporo z'inzobere za ONU gufasha uwo mutwe, ikirego rwakomeje guhakana.

Amasezerano y'amahoro hagati ya Perezida w'u Rwanda Paul Kagame na Perezida wa DRC yo mu 2025, yahagarikiwe na Perezida w'Amerika Donald Trump, ntarashobora kurangiza iyi ntambara igiye kumara imyaka itanu, nubwo intambara mu burasirazuba bwa DRC zimaze imyaka igera hafi kuri 30 zihagarara zikongera zikubura.

Stearns avuga ko kuba FARDC yaragowe no kwisubiza ibyo bice, bituma Tshisekedi "arimo gushakisha imfashanyo ahantu hose ashobora kuyibona, harimo no muri Israel ifite ubushobozi bukomeye cyane muri urwo rwego".

"Indi mpamvu, ntekereza ko ari ingenzi cyane, ni uko Tshisekedi ashishikajwe cyane no kugaragariza Leta Zunze Ubumwe z'Amerika, ari zo z'ingenzi zimushyigikiye, ko ari kumwe na zo."

Moncrieff yemeranya na we, akavuga ko "gukomeza kugirana umubano mwiza n'Amerika" ari cyo kintu yashyira ku mwanya wa mbere mu bishishikaje cyane DRC mu mubano wayo na Israel, kuko Amerika ari umuhuza mu makimbirane hagati y'u Rwanda na DRC ashingiye ku ntambara yo mu burasirazuba bw'icyo gihugu.

Moncrieff agira ati: "Kuri ubu DR Congo yumva ko itezwe ugutwi neza i Washington ndetse [abategetsi bayo] barifuza ko bikomeza kumera gutyo. Kandi kugirana umubano wa hafi na Israel, bumva ibyo bibaha amanota mu b'ingenzi bafata ibyemezo b'i Washington."

Gusa avuga ko u Rwanda rufite amateka yuko mu gihe cy'imyaka myinshi rwagiranye "umubano mwiza cyane" n'Amerika uko amashyaka yaho n'ubutegetsi byagiye bisimburana, "ariko ubu ruri mu bibazo i Washington kandi twabonye ko inshuro nyinshi mu mezi umunani ashize abategetsi bo muri Amerika banenze igitero cy'ubushotoranyi cy'u Rwanda muri DRC".

Uwo mubano mwiza, nkuko Moncrieff abivuga, ushyira igitutu ku Rwanda ndetse ushobora gutuma Amerika ireka gushyira igitutu ku butegetsi bwa DRC mu ngingo zinyuranye zirimo n'ibibazo ku burenganzira bwa muntu, na manda ya gatatu bigaragara ko Tshisekedi ashaka.

"Ariko u Rwanda rufite ubushobozi bwo gukina umukino w'igihe kirekire, rufite inshuti zikomeye i Washington, ibintu birahinduka i Washington kandi ntekereza ko rufite ubushobozi bwo kurokoka ibi bibazo no kureba uko bigenda, by'umwihariko birumvikana rushobora kubona habayeho impinduka muri politike nyuma y'amatora [y'abagize inteko ishingamategeko] yo hagati muri manda muri Amerika", azaba mu Gushyingo(11) uyu mwaka.

Uyu musesenguzi avuga ko indi mpamvu ituma DRC yiyegereza Israel ari uko DRC ifite urwego rwa gisirikare n'ubutasi rufite intege nkeya cyane ndetse ahanini rudakora neza ariko leta iriho ubu ikaba "ifite amafaranga menshi", ikaba irimo kugerageza kuziba icyo cyuho mu gisirikare n'ubutasi ikoresheje ayo mafaranga kuri Israel izwiho kugurisha mu mahanga ibikoresho byinshi bya gisirikare n'iby'ubutasi hamwe n'ubuzobere bwayo.

Moncrieff avuga ko mu myaka ya vuba aha ishize, DRC yakomeje kugura ibikoresho bimenyerewe bya gisirikare nk'intwaro zo kurashisha rokete (rocket launchers) n'ikoranabuhanga ry'indege nto z'intambara zitajyamo umupilote (drones) ndetse n'ikoranabuhanga ryo kuneka.

Umubano wa Israel n'u Rwanda

Tshisekedi kandi yasezeranyije kwimurira ambasade ya DRC i Yeruzalemu ivuye i Tel Aviv.

Amerika, Guatemala, Honduras, Kosovo, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay na Fiji ni byo bihugu bindi byamaze kwimura ambasade zabyo, mu buryo bwateje impaka kuko Israel ifata Yeruzalemu yose nk'iyayo nubwo Abanye-Palestine bo bafata Yeruzalemu y'Uburasirazuba nk'iyabo ndetse bakizera ko izaba umurwa mukuru wabo igihe hazaba habayeho leta yabo mu gihe kiri imbere.

Ariko Israel isanzwe inafitanye umubano mwiza n'u Rwanda mu bya gisirikare n'ubutasi umaze igihe kirekire, urimo no kuba bihuriye ku mateka ya jenoside.

Stearns asanga nta mpungenge biteye kuri Israel kugira inshuti ebyiri zo zifatana nk'abanzi hagati yazo kubera intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC.

Ati: "Kuri Israel ntekereza ko nta kwivuguruza kwa nyako kurimo hano. Israel irimo kugerageza kwagura kugira ijambo kwayo hirya no hino ku isi, ishaka inshuti ahantu hose ishobora kuzibona.

"Birumvikana ko iri ku gitutu cyinshi cya dipolomasi kubera intambara yayo muri Gaza n'ibikorwa byayo ahandi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati. Rero yumva iri mu kato. Rero ikintu cyose cyatuma iva muri ako kato ni ingenzi kuri Israel."

Israel yagabye ibitero muri Gaza mu gusubiza ku bitero umutwe wa Hamas w'Abanye-Palestine wagabye mu majyepfo ya Israel ku itariki ya 7 Ukwakira (10) mu 2023.

Israel n'Amerika byanatangije ibitero byo mu kirere kuri Iran muri Gashyantare (2) mu 2026, Iran isubiza igaba ibitero byo mu kirere kuri Israel, ku bigo bya gisirikare by'Amerika no ku nshuti z'Amerika muri ako karere, urebye inafunga umuhora wa Hormuz wari usanzwe inyuramo ibikomoka kuri peteroli byinshi bikoreshwa hirya no hino ku isi, bituma ibiciro byabyo byiyongera.

Stearns avuga ko Israel ishimishijwe no gukomeza kugirana umubano mwiza n'impande zombi, yongeraho ati: "Birumvikana kuri DRC biratandukanye. Nakwizera ko mu nama bagiranye na bagenzi babo muri Israel bababwiye ko bifuza ko Israel igabanya ubufatanye bwayo n'u Rwanda. Nibwira ko Israel yababwiye ko izabyigaho kandi, ni ko nibwira, ibyo ikaba nta cyo izabikoraho.

"Sintekereza ko uruhande rwa Congo ruzatsimbarara kuri iyo ngingo. Ntekereza ko Abanye-Congo [uruhande rwa DRC] bizaba bibashimishije cyane kubona ubufasha bwa gisirikare bwa Israel kandi n'Abanyarwanda [uruhande rw'u Rwanda] bazaba bashimishijwe cyane no gukomeza kugura ibikoresho bya gisirikare muri Israel..."

Moncrieff na we avuga ko DRC ishaka ko Israel yagabanya umubano wayo n'u Rwanda kuko nubwo u Rwanda, mu muvuno warwo mu bubanyi n'amahanga rwagerageje kugira umubano uri ku rugero rumwe mu bihugu byo mu Kigobe ndetse rukaba rufitanye umubano mwiza n'ibihugu byinshi by'Abarabu, "rwose muri DR Congo hari ababona ko Israel yakomeje kuba ku ruhande rw'u Rwanda, kandi wibuke nyine ko DR Congo n'u Rwanda biri mu ntambara ubu".

Mu mubano wayo na DRC, Moncrieff yongeraho ko Israel irimo no gushakira isoko inganda zayo z'ibikoresho bya gisirikare.

Intambara mu burasirazuba bwa RDC yaba iri hafi kurangira?

Ntibisobanutse neza urugero rw'uko ubufatanye mu bya gisirikare n'ubutasi rungana kuri ubu hagati ya DRC na Israel.

Stearns avuga ko amasezerano menshi ari mu cyiciro kizwi nk'amabanga ya gisirikare (secrets de défense), nubwo avuga ko kuva mu gihe cy'ubutegetsi bw'uwari Perezida Joseph Kabila, Israel yagiye igira amakontaro ya gisirikare muri DRC byibazwa ko amwe ajyanye no kugura ibikoresho no gutanga imyitozo.

Nyuma y'uruzinduko ruherutse rwa Tshisekedi muri Israel, Stearns avuga ko byamenyekanye ko DRC yabonye ubufasha bwo guha imyitozo 'brigade' imwe yo muri FARDC nubwo bidasobanutse iyo 'bridage' iyo ari yo.

Moncrieff asanga mu mubano wayo n'izi nshuti zayo ebyiri zihanganye, Israel izagerageza "kugurisha ku mpande zombi no kugerageza kugumishaho ubwo buringanire".

Yongeraho ati: "Nta nyungu ifite yo gukarira uruhande rumwe cyangwa urundi [muri zo]. Nta magambo akomeye yo muri dipolomasi ivuga ajyanye n'iyo ntambara. Ntekereza ko ishaka kugirana umubano mwiza n'impande zombi."

Ariko kugeza ubu Stearns avuga ko nta kimenyetso kigaragaza ko intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC yaba iri hafi kurangira ndetse imirwano irakomeje.

Ati: "Ntekereza ko turi ahantu aho abarebwa n'intambara bose babona bishishikaje cyane gukomeza intambara no kurangiza intambara.

"Icyo nshatse kuvuga aho ni uko – reka dufate batatu b'ingenzi bireba. Iyo uvuganye n'abayobozi ba M23 birasobanutse neza ko babona nta masezerano ayo ari yo yose y'amahoro leta ya Congo ishobora kubaha yaba ari mu nyungu zabo... Rero kuri bo, uko ibintu bimeze ubu[kurwana] ni yo mahitamo meza cyane kuri bo.

"Kuri leta ya Congo, bakomeje gutsimbarara ku gisubizo cya gisirikare mu burasirazuba bwa Congo nubwo bwose igisubizo cya gisirikare kidashoboka, nta cyo bagezeho mu gushaka igisubizo cya gisirikare.

"Kandi muri iki gihe, aho Tshisekedi ari ku gitutu cyinshi cyane kijyanye n'uko ibintu bimeze imbere mu gihugu muri politike – arimo kugerageza kuvugurura itegekonshinga, hari ibihuha n'amakuru ko ashobora gushaka kuguma ku butegetsi kuri manda ya gatatu nyuma yo mu 2028 ari bwo azasoza manda ye ya nyuma ku itegeko rihari ubu, rero iki ni igihe kigoye cyane kuri we ku kuba yagira ibyo ahara bikomeye ku kibazo gikomeye cyane muri Congo ari cyo uguterwa no kwigarurira [ibice byo mu] uburasirazuba bwa Congo...

"Rero ntazagira ibyo yigomwa bya ngombwa [ubusanzwe] amasezerano ayo ari yo yose y'amahoro asaba.

Stearns avuga ko kuri ubu Kinshasa biyinogeye cyane gukomeza uwo muvuno wa gisirikare.

"Kandi ntekereza ko ari ko bimeze no ku Rwanda. U Rwanda kuri ubu, nubwo rwafatiwe ibihano na leta y'Amerika, ndetse rukanengwa n'impande nyinshi, imiryango itari iya leta hamwe na za leta kubera kohereza ingabomu burasirazuba bwa DRC, [uruhande rw'u Rwanda] bagaragaje ubushake bucye cyane bwo kuhava.

"... nubwo Amerika yakomeje kugenda iruha ibihe ntarengwa byo kuhakura ingabo, ni nkaho nta kintu na kimwe rwakoze ku rubuga. Rero imirongo y'urugamba [aharwanirwa] yo mu mwaka ushize ijya kumera neza nk'imirongo y'urugamba y'uyu mwaka."

Stearns avuga ko kubera izo mpamvu zose, intambara izakomeza, keretse hagize uruhande rumwe mu ziri kurwana rwaba rwemeye kugira icyo ruhara cyangwa uruhande rumwe rukongererwa imbaraga za gisirikare, cyangwa umwe mu bahuza mu biganiro by'amahoro akagira uturusho twinshi cyane aha impande zirwana cyangwa akazotsa igitutu cyinshi cyane.

Ati: "Kuri ubu simbona hari na kimwe muri ibyo kizaba. Rero ukuri kubabaje ni uko intambara irakomeza ubundi Abanye-Congo bagera kuri miliyoni esheshatu mu burasirazuba bwa Congo bazakomeza kuba barataye ingo zabo kandi bakomeze kuhababarira."