Yadda ƙaruwar farashin mai za ta shafi rayuwar yau da kullum

Farashin ɗanyen mai ya yi tashin da ba a gani ba tun fara yaƙin Ukraine a 2022, abin da ke ƙara sanya fargaba a daidai lokacin da rahotanni ke cewa sojojin Amurka za su yi wa shugaba Donald Trumpm bayani kan sabbin matakan da za a ɗauka kan Iran.

A cewar shafin intanet na jaridar Axios, rundunar sojin Amurka mai kula da mayaƙan ƙasar, ta tsara shirin kai hare-hare gajeru kuma masu ƙarfi da nufin ganin Tehran ta amince an cimma matsaya. BBC ta tuntubi Pentagon da Fadar White House don jin martaninsu.

Sai dai tasirin haka ya zarce ga farashin mai kaɗai. Ƙwararru sun ce idan farashin mai ya ƙaru, to lamarin zai yi tasiri a faɗin tattalin arzikin duniya.

Tashin farashin mai ɗin ba ga mai kaɗai zai tsaya ba, har da kayakin da ake alaƙa da mai, hauhawarar farashi da kuma rayuwar yau da kullum," in ji Naveen Das, wani babban masani kan harkokin alkaluman bincike.

"Za mu fara ganin labarai da yawa kan ƙoƙarin ganin an dakile rikici," in ji shi.

1. Mai zai yi tsadar gaske

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Wannan mafari ne. Farashin ɗanyen mai na ƙaruwa ne kan damuwar samar da shi, rikice-rikicen yanki, ko kuma yanayin kasuwa.

Mai samfurin Brent ya ɗan ƙaru da kusan kashi 7 wato dala 126 kan kowane ganga, kafin ya sauka zuwa dala 116 a hada-hadar kasuwannin Turai. Farashi ya ƙaru a wannan mako sakamakon gaza samar da zaman lafiya kuma ga shi har yanzu mashigar Hormuz na rufe, abin da ya janyo tashin farashi ga masu ababen hawa.

Kafin Amurka da Isra'ila su far wa Iran, ana sayar da ɗanyen mai na Brent kan dala 70 a ganga - ko kuma ƙasa da haka kafin tashinsa ranar Alhamis.

Ɗanyen mai babban ɓangaren fetur ne da dizel, abin da ya sa ake ganin tashin farashi cikin sauri.

2. Farshin kayaki da ke alaƙa da mai na tashi

Ba a amfani da ɗanyen mai a wajen fetur kaɗai, amma har ga wasu kayaki masu muhimmanci. Sakamakon haka, idan farashin ɗanyen mai ya tashi yana shafar kayaki a fannoni da dama, kamar man jiragen sama, robobi da kuma sinadarai da taki.

Gwamnatoci sun yi gargaɗin cewa magidanta za su fuskanci ƙarin kuɗaɗen makamashi, abinci da kuma na shiga jiragen sama sakamakon rikicin da ake yi.

Tuni wasu kamfanonin jiragen sama suka fara ƙara farashin tikiti ko kuma rage jigila. Haka farashin taki ma yana tashi, wanda kuma zai iya komawa ya shafi kayan abinci.

Susannah Streeter, wata ƙwararriya kan harkar zuba jari, ta ce za a iya fuskantar tashin farashi ha rzuwa shekara mai zuwa.

"An toshe hanyar fitar da taki na'uin Urea - kuma manoman da ba su sayi mai yawa ba a faɗin duniya sun fuskanci ƙarin farashi," in ji ta.

"Damuwar ita ce wannan lamari zai shafi farashin kayakin yau da kullum a nan gaba cikin shekarar nan har ma zuwa shekara ta gaba."

3. Ɓangaren sufuri zai ƙara yin tsada

Kamar yadda kusan komai ya dogara da sufuri - abinci, kayan masarufi da sauransu - ƙarin farashin mai zai jawo tsadar kuɗin jigilar waɗannan kayaki.

Idan ya kasance akwaii tsada wajen jigilar kayaki zuwa faɗin duniya, kasuwanni za su mayar da wannan tsdara zuwa kan masu saye, inda dillalai su ma za shi shiga matsin lamba.

4. Hauhawar farashi

Wannan tashin farashi zai shafi tattalin arzikin duniya. Yayin da makamai ya zama mai tsada, kasuwanni za su ci gaba da gudana cikin tsada, daga masu masana'antu zuwa masu jigilar kayaki.

Farashin kayan abinci ma zai ƙaru, saboda noma, girbe wa da kuma rarraba kayan ya dogara da fetur da taki waɗanda ke alaƙa da ɗanyen mai. Kowane kayan amfanin yau da kullum, kama daga tufafi zuwa kayan laturoni, su ma za su yhi tsadar gaske wajen samar da su da kuma jigilarsu.

Yayin da farashin abubuwa ke ƙaruwa a fannoni daban-daban a lokaci ɗaya, lamarin zai yaɗu ba kakkautawa. Idan aka ci gaba da fuskantar irin haka na tsawon lokaci maimakon ya ragu, masana tattalin arziki na kwatanta hakan da hauhawar farashi - wato tsadar yanayin rayuwa.

"Duniya baki-ɗaya na fuskantar irin haka, wasu ƙasashe da yawa, saura kuma kaɗan," a cewar André Perfeito, wani masanin tattalin arziki a Brazil.

"Brazil na fama sosai, alal misali," in ji shi, inda ya ƙara da cewa an ci gaba da samun hauhawar farashi sama da abin da babban bankin ƙasar ya kayyade a tsawon watanni.

Bayan ƙaruwar farashi da kashi biyar a tsakiyar 2025, an ɗan samu sauki a Brazil amma ba sosai ba, inda ƙarin farashin ya kasance a kashi 4.3-4.4 a farkon shekarar 2026 - wanda ya kusa na kashin da ake so wato kashi uku.

Ana sa ran ƙasar za ta kare shekarar nan da hauhawar farashi da kashi 4.86,a cewar sabbin alkaluma daga babban bankin ƙasar, saboda rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Wasu ƙasashe da dama ma sun bi sahun irin wannan yanayi.

5. Tasiri kan rayuwar yau da kullum

Ga magidanta, wannan abu ya shafi rayuwarsu ta yau da kullum ta hanyoyi da dama.

Kuɗaɗen kayan marmari sun tashi, tafiye-tafiye na ƙara tsada, kuma farashin kayan aiki na ƙaruwa.

Yayin da yin rayuwa ke tsada, ma'aikata za su buƙaci ƙarin albashin da zai biya musu buƙatu, wanda zai ƙara tsadar kayaki. Sakamakon haka, babban bankunan ƙasashe za su ƙara kuɗin ruwa domin daƙile hauhawar farashi, da bayar da rancen gidaje da kuma hana kashe kuɗi da karɓar bashi.

A wasu ƙasashe, kamar Pakistan da Bangladesh, gwamnati ta bai wa makarantu uamrnin rufe wa domin rage yawan mai da ake amfani da shi da kuma rage kuɗin gudanarwa.

"Duka waɗannan na jawo hanyar tafiyar hawainiya ga abubuwa, daga nan sai koma-bayan tattalin arziki," in ni Perfeito.

"Babu lokacin tunanin mafita ta karamin lokaci. Ba na tunanin Trump zai sassauta wannan, aƙalla a yanzu," in ji shi.

Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya IMF ya yi gargaɗin cewa tattalin arzikin duniya na iya shiga cikin matsanancin yanayi na koma-baya idan rikicin da ke tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila da Iran ya ci gaba.

IMF ya buƙaci babban bankuna su yi taka tsantsan wajen ƙara kuɗin ruwa a matsayin martani ga hauhawar farashi.

Sakataren Baitul Malin Amurka, Scott Bessent, ya shaida wa BBC cewa ya cancanci a fuskanci ƙaramar wahalar koma bayar tattalin arziki idan hakan zai taimaka wajen hana Iran ƙera makaman nukiliya.

"Ban damu da irin wahalar da za a sha na karamin lokaci ba, muddin za a samu tsaro na tsawon lokaci," in ji shi.