Da gaske Tinubu ne ya yi silar zaman Buhari shugaban Najeriya?

A daidai lokacin da kakar babban zaɓen Najeriya ke ƙara ɗaukar harama, an jiyo sunan tsohon shugaban ƙasar, Marigayi Muhammadu Buhari ya fito a wajen taron siyasa.

Mataimakin shugaban Najeriya, Kashim Shettima ne ya ambata sunan a wajen bikin ƙaddamar da yaƙin zaɓen Bola Tinubu a jihar Kaduna, inda a cikin jawabinsa ya bayyyana cewa akwai buƙatar a mayar wa Tinubu biki.

A cewarsa, Tinubu ya mara wa Atiku Abubakar baya lokacin da ya ke neman takara, sannan ya mara wa Nuhu Ribadu baya a 2011, kafin daga baya ya taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen nasarar Muhammadu Buhari a zaɓukan 2015 da 2019.

"Wallahi, ba don gudunmuwar Tinubu ba, Buhari ba zai zama shugaban ƙasa ba," in ji Shettima.

Ya ƙara da cewa: "A Arewa ba a san mu da butulci ba. Ya kamata mu rama alherin da aka yi mana."

Ganin yadda maganar ta janyo hankali ne ya sa BBC ta yi tariya, tare da bin diddigin yadda marigayin ya samu nasarar lashe zaɓe, tare da gudunmuwar da wasu muhimman mutane suka bayar.

Takarar Buhari guda biyar

Sau biyar marigayin ya tsaya takarar shugaban ƙasa, inda ya faɗi uku a 2003 da 2007 da 2011, sannan ya samu nasara a biyu a 2015 da 2019.

Ya tsaya a tutar jam'iyyar ANPP a 2003 da 2007, sannan ya ƙaddamar da tasa jam'iyyar da ya kira CPC wadda a ciki ya sake tsayawa takarar shugaban ƙasa a zaɓen da aka yi a shekarar 2011.

Sakamakon cimma haɗakar jam'iyyu da aka sanya wa suna APC, Muhammadu Buhari ya samu nasarar lashe zaɓen shekarar 2015, inda ya kayar da abokin takararsa, Goodluck Jonathan na jam'iyyar PDP mai mulki.

Muhammadu Buhari ya sake samun damar yin tazarce a karo na biyu a 2019, bayan kayar da abokin takararsa, Atiku Abubakar na jam'iyyar PDP.

Buhari ya kammala wa'adinsa na biyu a ranar 29 ga watan Mayun 2023, bayan samun nasarar shugaba Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Ga shekarun da Buhari ya yi takara da ƙuri'un da ya samu:

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

Assasa haɗakar APC da rawar da Tinubu ya taka

An kafa jam'iyyar APC (All Progressives Congress) a watan Fabrairun 2013. Jam'iyyar ta samo asali ne daga haɗewar manyan jam'iyyun adawa uku na Najeriya wato:

Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) a ƙarƙashin Bola Tinubu

Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) a ƙarƙashin Muhammadu Buhari

All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) a ƙarƙashin su Ibrahim Shekarau

APGA a ƙarƙashin jagorancin Rochas Okoroacha

nPDP ta wasu gwamnoni da suka ɓalle daga jam'iyyar PDP

Takardar yarjejeniyar haɗewar ta samu sa hannun:

A ranar 31 ga Yuli, 2013, Hukumar INEC ta amince da rajistar APC a matsayin jam'iyyar siyasa. Bayan wannan amincewa, an soke rajistar jam'iyyun ACN, CPC da ANPP saboda sun haɗe sun koma APC.

Sai dai ana ganin Tinubu ne ya shige gaba domin tabbatar da cewa haɗakar ta kai ga samun nasara.

Ana ganin ne ma ya sa aka tsara cewa shi ne zai tsayar da ɗan takarar mataimakin shugaban ƙasa, inda ya miƙa sunan Yemi Osibanjo, wanda ya mara wa Buhari baya na tsawon wa'adin mulkin na shekara takwas.

nPDP

nPDP (New PDP) wata ƙungiya ce da ta ɓalle daga jam'iyyar Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a shekarar 2013 sakamakon rikicin cikin-gida da saɓanin da ya ɓarke tsakanin wasu gwamnoni da shugabannin jam'iyyar da kuma gwamnatin Shugaba Goodluck Jonathan.

A watan Nuwamban shekarar APC ta sanar da haɗewa da ɓangaren jam'iyyar PDP da ke ƙarƙashin jagorancin Abubakar Kawu Baraje.

An sanar da wannan haɗaka ne bayan wani taro da aka gudanar a gidan gwamnan Kano da ke Abuja.

Waɗanda suka fara fafutikar ta sabuwar PDP su ne:

Waɗanda suka koma APC daga baya su ne:

Haka kuma tsohon mataimakin shugaban Najeriya, Atiku Abubakar ya bayar da gudunmuwa wajen samun nasarar Buhari.

Bayan zaɓen fitar da gwani na APC, wanda aka yi a Legas, wanda Buhari ya samu nasara, Kwankwaso ya zo na biyu, sai Atiku na uku, Atikun ya fito ya bayyana cewa za su yi duk mai yiwuwa wajen tabbatar da cewa Buhari ya doke Jonathan.

'An zuzuta magana'

A cewar Farfesa Abubakar Kari, masanin siyasa kuma malami a jami'ar Abuja, akwai masu ra'ayin cewa ba zai yiwu Muhammadu Buhari ya kai ga nasarar zaɓen 2015 ba tare da gudunmawar Bola Ahmed Tinubu ba, musamman daga cikin magoya bayan shugaban na yanzu.

Sai dai ya ce yana ganin batun yana da sarƙaƙiya kuma bai kamata a danganta nasarar ga mutum guda ba.

"Gaskiya ne cewa Tinubu ya taka muhimmiyar rawa. Da farko, ya taimaka wajen tabbatar da cewa Buhari ya samu tikitin takarar APC a zaɓen fid-da-gwani. Kada mu manta cewa an gudanar da zaɓen ne a Legas, jihar da Tinubu ke da tasiri. Daga nan kuma ya ba da gagarumar gudunmawa wajen yaƙin neman zaɓe da nasarar Buhari a babban zaɓe."

Ya ce duk da haka, ba Tinubu kaɗai ne ya taka rawa ba.

"Akwai mutane irin su Rotimi Amaechi da Bukola Saraki da suka bayar da tasu gudunmawar."

Masanin siyasar ya ce abin da ke sa wasu suke ganin Tinubu ne ya fi kowa tasiri shi ne cewa kafin 2015 Buhari ya tsaya takara sau uku amma bai samu nasara ba.

"Musamman saboda rashin karɓuwa a wasu sassan Kudancin Najeriya. Haɗakarsa da Tinubu, wanda yake da ƙarfi a Kudu maso Yamma, ta sauya yanayin siyasar."

Farfesa Kari ya ƙara da cewa ɗaya daga cikin manyan dabarun da aka yi wa Buhari a wancan lokaci shi ne gyara yadda jama'a ke kallonsa.

"Abin da mutanen Tinubu suka fara yi shi ne canja tunanin mutane game da Buhari. Har salon suturarsa da yadda yake magana an yi aiki a kansu. A lokacin ma ana ta raɗe-raɗin cewa an ɗauko ƙwararrun masu tallata siyasa daga ƙasashen waje domin sake gina kamanninsa a idon jama'a."

"Ina ganin ya fi dacewa a ce Tinubu ya taka muhimmiyar rawa. Domin ko ba komai, a zaɓen 2015 Buhari ya yi nasara a mafi yawan jihohin da Tinubu ke da tasiri. Haka kuma Tinubu da sauran manyan 'yan siyasa sun yi amfani da ƙarfinsu, dangantakarsu da kuma kuɗaɗensu wajen tallafa wa yaƙin neman zaɓen."

'Dama yana cin jihohin nPDP'

Da yake magana kan rawar da gwamnonin nPDP suka taka, Farfesa Kari ya ce muhimmancin sauya sheƙarsu zuwa APC ya fi bayyana wajen raunana PDP fiye da ƙara wa Buhari ƙuri'u kai tsaye.

"A ganina, babban tasirin da gwamnonin nPDP da wasu jiga-jigai irin su Atiku Abubakar suka yi shi ne rage ƙarfin PDP da kuma haifar da shakku a zukatan 'yan Najeriya kan gwamnatin Jonathan."

Ya ce yawancin jihohin waɗannan gwamnoni dama Buhari yana samun ƙuri'u masu yawa a cikinsu.

"Amma a wasu wurare kamar Rivers, duk da cewa Buhari bai ci jihar ba a 2015, tasirin Rotimi Amaechi ya taimaka wajen ƙara wa APC kwarin gwiwa da ƙarfafa jam'iyyar a yankin."

Ya ce nasarar Buhari a 2015 ta samo asali ne daga haɗuwar abubuwa da dama, ciki har da haɗakar jam'iyyun adawa, rawar da Tinubu ya taka, gudunmawar jiga-jigan APC, da kuma sauya sheƙar jiga-jigan nPDP zuwa sabuwar haɗakar APC.

'Ƙuri'u miliyan uku kawai maja ta ƙara wa Buhari'

A wani jawabin tsohon sakataren gwamnatin tarayya a zamanin, Boss Mustapha da jaridar Guardian Nigeria ta ruwaito, ya bayyana cewa haɗakar jam'iyyun adawa da aka yi a shekarar 2013 wadda ta haifar da kafuwar All Progressives Congress (APC) wata dabarar siyasa ce da ta ginu kan farin jinin Muhammadu Buhari.

Da yake jawabi a wajen ƙaddamar da littafin Garba Shehu mai suna According to the President: Lessons From A Presidential Spokesman's Experience a Abuja ranar Laraba, Mustapha ya ce nasarar APC a zaɓen 2015 ta samo asali ne sakamakon ɗumbin magoya bayan Buhari da ya riga ya mallaka, ba wai kawai saboda ƙarfin jam'iyyun da suka haɗe ba.

Ya ce sakamakon zaɓukan da Buhari ya yi a baya ya nuna cewa yana da tabbatacciyar gindin magoya baya a faɗin ƙasar. A cewarsa, Buhari ya samu kuri'u miliyan 12.2 a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na 2011, kuma wannan goyon baya ne ya kasance har zuwa lokacin da ya lashe zaɓen 2015 da kuri'u miliyan 15.4.

A cewar Mustapha, haɗakar jam'iyyun Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) da All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) ta ƙara wa APC kusan kuri'u miliyan uku ne kawai, yayin da mafi yawan kuri'un suka fito ne daga farin jinin Buhari.

Ya ce: "A zaɓen 2003, takara ce tsakanin Obasanjo da Buhari, inda Buhari ya samu kuri'u miliyan 2.7. A wani zaɓen da ya biyo baya ya samu miliyan 12.7. A 2007 ya samu miliyan 6.6, sannan ya koma miliyan 12.2 a 2011."

"Duk da cewa CPC tana da jiha guda ɗaya, ACN tana da jihohi shida, ANPP kuma tana da jihohi uku. Idan ka tattara yawan kuri'un da suka ba mu nasarar shugaban ƙasa a 2015, adadin ya kai miliyan 15.4."

Ya ƙara da cewa, "Don haka, a zahiri, abin da muka kawo bayan haɗakar, baya ga ƙuri'un Buhari miliyan 12.5, kusan ƙuri'u miliyan uku ne kawai."

Sai dai Mustapha ya amince cewa gudunmawar jam'iyyun da suka haɗe na da muhimmanci wajen gina kawancen siyasa mai ƙarfi. Duk da haka, ya jaddada cewa mutuncin Buhari, sunansa a faɗin ƙasa da kuma yadda jama'a suka amince da shi su ne suka kasance ginshiƙin nasarar da APC ta samu a zaɓen 2015.