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Is a 'super El Niño' really coming?

“超级厄尔尼诺” 真的要来了吗？

文字稿

Is a 'Super' or 'Godzilla El Niño' really on the way? It's been in lots of news reports, but climate scientists actually say we don't really know for sure yet.

一场 “超级” 或 “哥斯拉级厄尔尼诺” 真的要来了吗？这一预测出现在了不少新闻报道中，但气候科学家表示，目前我们还无法百分之百确定。

El Niño typically means higher global temperatures, risk of flooding in some regions and drought and wildfire in others.

厄尔尼诺通常意味着全球气温升高，某些地区面临洪灾风险，而另一些地区则可能遭遇干旱和野火。

Dr Kimberley Reid, University of Melbourne
"The general public often assume that, well if it's a strong El Niño, then the impacts will be stronger, but that's not necessarily the case."

金柏莉·瑞德博士墨尔本大学
“大众往往认为，既然是强厄尔尼诺，影响就一定会更大，但其实并不一定是这样。”

（Source: US Climate Prediction Center）
Some forecasts suggest there is a one in four chance of a "very strong" event later in the year.

（信息来源：美国气候预测中心）
一些预测认为，今年晚些时候发生 “极强” 事件的概率为四分之一。

But El Niño is notoriously hard to predict between March and May, a period scientists call the spring (or autumn) predictability barrier.

但众所周知，厄尔尼诺在三到五月之间极难预测，科学家将这段时期称为 “春季（或秋季）预测壁垒”。

In 2017, early forecasts pointed towards El Niño, but conditions flipped and La Niña developed instead.

2017 年，早期预测都指向厄尔尼诺，但气象条件随后发生逆转，反而形成了 “拉尼娜” 现象。

El Niño happens when Pacific Ocean waters are warmer than normal. La Niña is the opposite. They usually happen every two to seven years and can shift weather patterns across the globe.

厄尔尼诺发生时，太平洋水温会比平时更高。拉尼娜则相反。它们通常每二到七年发生一次，能改变全球的天气模式。

But El Niño is only part of the picture.

但厄尔尼诺只是影响气象的部分因素。

Dr Kimberley Reid, University of Melbourne
"You've got these multiple, you know four, five, six different key drivers of weather that all add up to produce the weather of an individual region. And then, of course, you've got climate change in the background, just making everything warmer. And so, just by focusing on El Niño, you're not getting the whole story."

金柏莉·瑞德博士墨尔本大学
“有许多因素，大约四、五、六种不同的气象驱动因子，共同作用，才形成了某一地区的天气。当然，还有气候变化这个大背景在推波助澜，让全球都在变暖。所以，如果你只关注厄尔尼诺，你看到的就并非全貌。”