Ko lashe zaɓen gwamnan Ekiti albishir ne ga APC gabanin 2027?

A Najeriya masana harkokin siyasa na kallon nasarar da gwamnan jihar Ekiti ya yi na samu wa'di na biyu a baya-bayan nan wani lamari ne da ya ƙara ƙwarin gwiwa tare da ƙarfafa ƙarfin ikon jam'iyyar All Progressives Congress (APC) a yankin kudu maso yammacin Najeriya.

Yana ƙarawa jam'iyyar ƙarfi a shiyyar da kuma samar da wani muhimmin tushe na siyasa gabanin babban zaɓe na ƙasa da za a yi a 2027.

Ita kanta jam'iyyar APC ta bayyana sake zaɓen gwamna Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji a matsayin wani babban abu mai cike da tarihi, inda ya zama karo na farko da gwamna mai ci ya samu wa'adi na biyu a jere a tarihin dimokraɗiyyar jihar.

Amma wannan ɗaya ne kawai daga cikin zaɓukan da ake yi ba a lokacin manyan zabuka ba da jam'iyyar ta lashe, ko hakan zai kasance manuniya ga yadda zaɓen 2027 zai kasance?

Nasarorin APC bayan zaɓen 2023

Bayan rantsar da shugaban ƙasa Bola Tinubu a ranar 29 ga watan Mayun 2023, jihohi biyar sun gudanar da zaɓukan gwamnoni inda jam'iyyar All Progressives Congress (APC) ta lashe zaɓe a jihohi huɗu daga cikinsu:

Jihar Imo

Jam'iyyun siyasa 17 ne suka gabatar da ƴan takara a zaɓen gwamnan da aka gudanar a ranar 11 ga watan Nuwamba na 2023.

Ƴan takaran sun haɗa da Odunzeh Ben (NNPP) da Achonu Nneji (LP), da Anyanwu Samuel (PDP), da Hope Uzodinma (APC) .

Uzodimma, tsohon Sanata mai wakiltar Orlu (Imo West) kuma gwamnan jihar mai ci tun 2020 aka bayyana a matsayin wanda ya lashe zaɓen gwamna.

INEC ta bayyana cewa Uzodinma ya lashe dukkanin ƙananan hukumomi 27 na jihar da ƙuri'u 540,308.

Yayin da ɗan takarar jam'iyyar PDP, Samuel Anyanwu, wanda ya zo na biyu ya samu jimillar ƙuri'u 71,503 a faɗin jihar sai kuma ɗan takarar jam'iyyar Labour, Athan Achonu, ya samu kuri'u 64,081.

Jihar Kogi

A jihar Kogi an samu ƴan takara 18, maza 17, da mace 1 a zaɓen neman wanda zai maye gurbin Yahaya Bello.

Daga cikin ƴan takarar akwai Leke Abejide (ADC) da Dino Melaye (PDP) da Ahmed Ododo (APC), da Idoko Ilona (APGA), da kuma Suleiman Fatima (ZLP).

Hukumar zaɓe mai zaman kanta ta ƙasa (INEC) ta bayyana Ododo (APC) a matsayin wanda ya lashe zaɓen gwamna da aka gudanar a ranar 11 ga Nuwamba, 2023 inda ya samu ƙuri'u 446, 237.

Ɗan takarar jam'iyyar Social Democratic Party (SDP) Murtala Yakubu ya zo na biyu inda ya samu ƙuri'u 259,052 yayin da Sanata Dino Melaye na jam'iyyar PDP ya zo na uku da ƙuri'u 46,362.

Jihar Bayelsa

Jam'iyyun siyasa 16 ne suka shiga zaɓen gwamnonan jihar a watan Nuwamban 2023 inda aka samu da mata 2 da maza 14.

Diri Duoye (PDP), da Eradiri Udengmobofa (LP), da Timipre Sylva (APC), da Ogege Mercy (APP) ke daga cikin ƴan takarar.

An ayyana Diri na PDP a matsayin wanda ya lashe zaɓen gwamnan Bayelsa.

Diri ya samu nasara a ƙananan hukumomi shida cikin takwas na jihar, inda ya samu ƙuri'u 175,196 inda ya kayar da sauran ƴan takaran ciki har da babban abokin hamayyarsa, Cif Timipre Sylva na jam'iyyar APC.

Sylva ya zo na biyu, bayan da ya yi nasara a ƙananan hukumomi biyu kuma ya samu ƙuri'u 110,108.

Dan takarar jam'iyyar Labour Party, LP, Mr. Udengs, ya zo na uku mai nisa da kuri'u 905.

Wannan shi ne kaɗai zaɓen da jam'iyyar APC ba ta yi nasarar lashewa a lokacin da aka gudanar da shi ba, amma daga baya ya zame ma ta nasara sakamakon sauya sheƙa da gwamna Diri ya yi daga jam'iyyar PDP zuwa APC mai mulki a watan. Nuwamban 2025.

Jihar Edo

Zaɓen farko da aka gudanar a shekarar 2024, ya ƙunshi ƴan takara 17, waɗanda suka ƙunshi maza 16 da mace ɗaya.

Yan takaran dai sun haɗa da Sanata Monday Okpebolo na APC da Asue Ighodalo na PDP da Olumide Akpata na Jam'iyyar Labour, da kuma Tom Iseghohi na Action Alliance.

A ƙarshen tattara sakamakon zaɓen, INEC ta sanar da MOnday Okpebolo a matsayin wanda ya lashe zaɓen bayan ya lashe ƙananan hukumomi 11 cikin 18 na jihar.

Okpebolo ya lashe zaɓen da ƙuri'u 291,667, yayin da Ighodalo ya zo na biyu da ƙuri'u 247,274, inda Akpata wanda ya samu ƙuri'u 22,763 ya zo na uku.

Jihar Ondo

Ƴan takara 17 ne suka fafata a zaɓen da aka gudanar a ranar ranar 1 ga Nuwamba, 2024

Manyan ƴan takarar sun haɗa da Lucky Aiyedatiwa na APC da Agboola Ajayi na PDP da Olorunfemi Ayodele na Jam'iyyar Labour da Akingboye Bamidele na SDP da Abbas Mimiko na ZLP.

A ƙarshen tattara sakamakon zaɓen, jami'in zaɓen, Olayemi Akinwumi ya bayyana Aiyedatiwa na APC a matsayin wanda ya lashe zaɓen .

A cewar INEC, Aiyedatiwa ya samu ƙuri'u 366,781 inda ya kayar da abokin hamayyarsa kuma tsohon mataimakin gwamnan jihar Ajayi Agboola wanda ya samu ƙuri'u 117,845.

Tasiri nasarorin APC a zaɓen 2027

Wasu masu sharhi kan harkokin siyasa a Najeriya na ganin nasarar zaɓukan da jam'iyyar APC a matsayin samun ƙarin cikakken iko a yankunan da ke da ta ke da ƙarfi, kuma alamun samun nasara gabanin babban zaɓen 2027.

Waɗannan sun haɗa da jerin nasarorin da ta samu a zaɓen cike gurbi na ƴan majalisar dokoki a faɗin Jihohi kamar Nasarawa da Kano, da Kebbi—Jam'iyyar APC ta ƙara ƙarfafa matsayinta a ƙasa baki ɗaya.

Masana irin su Farfesa Tukur Abdulqadir malami a sashen kimmiyar siyasa da dangantakar ƙasa da ƙasa a jami'ar jihar Kaduna na da ra'ayin cewa duka ana iya ganin wannan lamari a matsayin manuniya ga tasirin da jam'iyyar mai mulki za ta iya yi a zabe mai zuwa, akwai buƙatar a yi la'akari da wasu abubuwa da ka iya taka rawa a babban zaɓen kuma haka na iya zame wa jam'iyyar ƙarfen ƙafa.

Ya ce ''Za a iya kallon lamarin ta fuskar cewa juma'ar da za ta yi kyau tun daga Laraba a ke gane ta amma dole ne a yi la'akari da wasu abubuwa na yanayin siyasar ƙasar musamman waɗanda ke shafan yankunan da aka fi jefa ƙuri'a. Mafi rinjayen ƙuri'un da shugaban ƙasa ya samu sun fito ne daga arewacin Najeriya, kuma yau akwai ƙalubale da yawa da suka haɗa da matsalar tsaro da kuma abubuwan da suka shafi fannin noma da ke addabar yankin.''

Masanin ya ƙara da cewa akwai yiwuwar matsalilon da ake fuskanta a arewacin ƙasar su janyo wa gwamnati baƙin jini, lamarin da zai iya shafar jam'iyyar ganin cewa ita ce jam'iyya mai mulki.

Farfesa Tukur Abdulqadir ya kuma yi bayanin cewa ba lallai ne jam'iyyun adawa su karaya ba sakmakon waɗannan nasarorin da APC ke samu.

''Jihar Ekiti na cikin jihohin da suka fi ƙanƙanta a yankin kudu maso yammacin ƙasar, kuma ana samun akasarin ƙuri'u ne daga yankin arewacin ƙasar,saboda haka wannan nasara musamman na baya bayan nan da aka samu a Ekiti bai kamata ya karya wa ƴan adawa gwiwa ba, amma duk da haka yana iya zama manuniya kan yadda irin waɗannan zaɓukan za su iya kasancewa a nan gaba.'' in ji shi

Masanin dai ya ƙara da cewa nasarorin da jam'iyyar ta APC ke samu na da matuƙar muhimmanci kan irin ƙarfin ikon da ta ke da shi a wasu yankunan ƙasar babu tabbas cewa hakan na iya zama tubalin da za ta gina nasara a babban zaɓe na ƙasa na 2027.