Monthly Outlook

A much warmer few days will develop in the second half of May, and it should become drier in some areas, most likely in the south and east.

By mid-June, however, conditions may become more unsettled again, with temperatures more typical for the time of year.

A warmer and drier trend, mainly in the south and east

The weekend will start chilly but become less cool, with temperatures lifting closer to average on Sunday. It will stay changeable, though, with any sunshine interrupted by showers or a longer period of rain. On Sunday, some of this could turn heavy and thundery in a few spots.

The first half of the coming week will warm a little more as wind flows become mainly south to south-westerly, but it will be windy at times and remain unsettled.

Further rain or showers will sweep across the UK, some potentially heavy, but by midweek high pressure will try to build from the south-west. This could lead to a drier trend in the second half of the week as high pressure becomes more dominant for a few days.

Temperatures should rise higher to potentially deliver some very warm weather across parts of central, southern and eastern England, where conditions should be driest. The rest of the UK should have above-normal temperatures but could be more variable. Sea breezes could make some coastal areas a bit cooler.

Atlantic frontal systems will bring rain, showers and brisk winds to northern and western regions at times, mainly Scotland and Northern Ireland, but these could occasionally nudge into parts of northern England and Wales.

Most areas should be drier and calmer at the weekend.

Most probably drier and warmer than average

Early in the following week, high pressure might become centred further to the north-west or south-west for a couple of days, out in the eastern or north-eastern Atlantic.

This may cause somewhat cooler north-west to north-easterly flows to develop for a while, with daytime temperatures close to typical for the time of year across most of the UK. However, high pressure should still exert enough influence to maintain rather dry conditions.

High pressure could soon build across the UK again, with a return to above average warmth possible as the week progresses. This should also mean a continuation of drier than normal conditions, with below average rainfall amounts in most areas across the week, and low chances of any sustained windy weather.

Near to above normal temperatures are most likely

A similar set-up should linger into early June. Although a little rain cannot be entirely ruled out anywhere, rainfall totals should be below normal across most areas.

More typical amounts for early June are possible in north-western regions, with Scotland in particular more susceptible to occasional wetter spells. Temperatures here could remain close to or even a shade below average but across much of the UK they are most likely to be at least a little higher than the early June average.

There is low confidence in the forecast for the second week of June but at the moment there is little sign of any major change to the pattern, with high pressure still extending across or near the UK.

It could weaken at times to allow an increased chance of a little rain or a few showers but rainfall amounts should not be any higher than normal in many areas, while temperatures are most likely to be near or above average. However, northern or north-western regions may have chances of turning wetter.

The next update on Tuesday will look again at the longevity of the expected high pressure presence through late May and into June.