Monthly Outlook

A drier period is expected throughout the rest of this week, next week and possibly beyond, with winds easing and just the odd shower here and there.

There will be some chilly and foggy nights but daytime temperatures should be near or above normal. However, a change to cooler and wetter conditions could come before mid-May.

Mostly dry throughout the rest of this week

Except for most of Scotland, Wednesday will be windy, especially in south-west England where a splash of rain is possible. Winds could gust to 40-60mph in exposed spots. The rest of the UK should be dry, and thanks to a ridge of high pressure there will be fine weather across all areas on Thursday and Friday, with sunshine and decreasing winds, although the south-west and far south will still be breezy. It will be chilly at first, especially in Scotland, and some early-morning fog patches are possible, but afternoon temperatures will rise to near or above average.

High pressure will remain in charge into the weekend, so it's going to stay dry in most areas. However, cloud amounts will tend to increase, and there will be the chance of a shower or two breaking out across south-west England. Daytime temperatures are going to stay near to a little above normal.

A lot of dry weather. Occasional isolated showers

The position of high pressure is uncertain during the end of April and into early May. Early in the period it should be centred over or north of the UK, and this blocked pattern should hinder the approach of Atlantic frontal systems. As a result, there should be a lot of dry weather with precipitation amounts below average for the week. However, sunshine will be unreliable, and there will be a chance of a few isolated showers developing now and then. With some calm conditions, there will be a continuing risk of overnight fog patches.

Strong winds are unlikely for most areas, although later in the week there may be a chance of high pressure slipping southwards, at least for a time, allowing some wetter and breezier conditions into at least Scotland. Throughout the week temperatures should remain above average but windward coasts, especially in the east, could feel cooler a times. With sluggish patterns and uncertain movement of the high pressure, there is high uncertainty on details.

Eventually turning cooler and more unsettled

The position of high pressure remains important for weather conditions during the first half of May. A rather blocked pattern is most likely to continue for a while, with high pressure anomalies somewhere near the UK. As such, precipitation amounts should be near to below average, with daytime temperatures close to or a little above normal. With some calm conditions, there could be a few chilly and foggy nights.

By the middle of May, however, there are some signs of a change, with high pressure receding more to the north-west and low pressure developing closer to the UK. This could result in a switch to cooler, wetter and breezier conditions at times, with temperatures more likely to be below average overall. However, there is some doubt surrounding the timing of this expected change.

In Friday's update we will see if we can confirm the expected rather dry period, and if a wetter and cooler change still looks probable by mid-May. We will also be able to take a look into the second half of May.