Bowen: Trump need make dis war end but Iran no dey gree

Di United States and Iran don show sign say dem go like make dem no go back to di war wey bin dey on hold since dem bin announce ceasefire on 8 April.

Di two of dem bin allow di steady drumbeat of military exchanges between dem to end di tok-tok wey Pakistan, Qatar and odas dey try chook mouth to settle.

Di US still get powerful naval and air force within striking distance of Iran.

E dey safe to assume say di Iranian regime for don keep dia forces on high alert and dem go dey use di ceasefire to re-organise and repair di damage wey US and Israel don do.

Armed tension for di area and around di Gulf dey open up clear risk for both sides of miscalculation and misperception.

Di US dey try to keep di pressure on di Tehran regime to make concessions by demonstrating say dem dey close by and dey capable to cause great damage.

Di Iranians dey remind di US say dia determination to resist neva reduce and, if necessary, dem go attack American bases and di wider infrastructure of di Arab gulf.

Di first objectives of wetin fit be a long and perhaps unreachable road to a wider deal between di US and Iran na di continuation of di ceasefire and di agreement on di "memorandum of understanding" on di agenda of more tok-tok between dem.

To reach dia dey prove difficult.

Di Iranians go require a price, perhaps in di form of sanctions relief or unfrozen assets to reopen di Strait of Hormuz, wey look like one important requirement for serious negotiations.

Only few ships dey pass thru di place wey be vital and busy waterway. Iran bin close am afta US and Israel bin attack dem on 28 February.

Saudi Arabia dey carry some oil thru pipe go di Red Sea ports, and di United Arab Emirates (UAE) get pipeline to terminals for dia small patch of coast wey dey face di Gulf of Oman, beyond di Strait of Hormuz.

But di rest of di world don still lose around 20% of dia usual supply of oil and gas, as well as oda vital exports.

To kontinu to keep di Strait of Hormuz close fit cause disaster for much of di world economy. Di US no dey depend on Gulf oil again, but na still di global market dey still set petrol prices for America.

Donald Trump dey tied. Im don hang inside di consequences of di serious blunder wey im bin make as im start war wey im bin tink say e go dey easy for am to win

Di US president and im close ally Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel bin fatally underestimate di degree to which di Islamic regime bin prepare to resist and ride out dia attacks.

Trump no get any easy way out and di Iranian regime want to keep am like dat.

Im need to make sure say dem open di Strait. Di war against Iran dey deeply unpopular for di US and e dey continue to get out of hand and e go even turn more Americans against am

Trump problem be say di concessions wey Iran want wey go make dem reopen di Strait dey opposed by hawks for im own Republican Party and by im own desire to show victory.

Di US president dey deeply allergic to any adverse comparison between any deal wey im make with Iran, even an arrangement to extend di ceasefire for more tok-tok, and di nuclear deal wey dem bin make under Barack Obama in 2015. Trump condemn amt and for im first term for di White House im bin pull di US out.

Iran rulers beliv say wit some justification dem dey fighting for di existence of dia regime.

E dey clear say more strikes from di US with or without Israel no go shake dem at all.

Di wealthy Arab oil states of di Gulf bin don suffer long term economic damage and dem no want to suffer again.

Dia model for business and di long-term development of dia kontris depends on di foundation of di Gulf to be a stable hub for di global economy and safe for foreign investment.

Di war don give dem severe blow and to restore dia aura of stability go take years.

Qatar na a full mediating partner, along wit Pakistan, for di diplomatic attempt to start tok-tok again.

Di United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia don respond to Iran from different angles.

Di Emiratis don doubled down on dia strategic relationship with di Israelis, wey send di Iron Dome missiles defence system to di UAE, along wit Israel Defense Forces sojas to operate it.

E don show say di Saudis don attack Iran, dem say na in retaliation for Iranian attacks. But significantly, senior Saudi sources say dem don make am clear to Tehran say dem dey act independently, not as part of di US-Israel coalition.

Wen Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu bin start war with Iran two of dem bin tok say di beta air power wey dia kontris get go dey enough to remove di Islamic regime for Tehran.

Dem dey wrong.

Dem bin misunderstood di nature of di regime wey don survive for almost half a century despite severe tests wey war bin don sama dem, sanctions and isolation.

Now di US and Israel dey live wit di consequences - and na so e be for di rest of di world.