Ko Syria za ta iya maye gurbin Isra'ila wajen daidaita wa Hezbollah zama?

Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya sake yin magana kan yiwuwar Syria ta taka rawa wajen tinkarar ƙungiyar Hezbollah a Lebanon, inda ya sanar cewa ya tattauna da Shugaban Syria Ahmed al‑Sharaa game da wannan batu, kuma yana dab da miƙa batun Hezbollah ga Syria.

Mista Trump ya bayyana hakan ne a gefen taron ƙasashen G7 da aka gudanar a Faransa, inda ya ce ya yi magana da Ahmed al‑Sharaa kan Hezbollah, kwana guda bayan ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa Syria na iya yin "aiki mafi kyau" fiye da Isra'ila wajen mu'amala da ƙungiyar Lebanon din.

Ba wannan ne karon farko da Trump ya ambaci yiwuwar rawar da Syria za ta taka kan Hezbollah a Lebanon ba.

Wannan lamari na da matukar sarƙaƙiya a Lebanon, saboda kasancewar sojojin Syria a ƙasar ya fara ne tun shekarar 1976 a lokacin yaƙin basasa, kuma sun janye a shekarar 2005.

Wani abu mai muhimmanci a cikin kalaman Trump na baya‑bayan nan shi ne yadda ya jaddada, lokacin da yake amsa tambayar wani ɗan jarida, cewa lallai ya yi magana da Ahmed al‑Sharaa kan Hezbollah, amma bai yi ƙarin bayani ba game da lokacin tattaunawar ko kuma martanin shugaban Syria.

Ahmed al‑Sharaa ya ƙi duk wani tsoma bakin soja a rikicin, yana mai cewa: "Abu mafi muhimmanci, fiye da komai, shi ne dakatar da yaƙin."

Gwamnatin Lebanon ba ta mayar da martani kan kalaman Trump ba. BBC Arabic ta tuntubi ofishin yaɗa labarai na Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Lebanon domin jin ko Ministan harkokin wajen ƙasar Youssef Raghi yana da wata magana, amma aka amsa da cewa: "Ba mu da tacewa."

A Isra'ila kuwa, Ministan Tsaro Yisrael Katz ya mayar da martani ga kalaman Trump, yana cewa ƙasarsa "ba ta buƙatar" Shugaban Syria Ahmed al‑Sharaa a Lebanon.

A cewar tashar Channel 14 ta Isra'ila, Katz a wata hira da tashar ya yi amfani da tsohon sunan Shugaban Syria, "Jolani", inda ya siffanta shi da cewa "ɗan ta'adda a cikin kayan alfarma."

Ya ƙara da cewa Isra'ila "ita ce ke yin aikin da kanta," yana nuni da hare‑haren soja da take kai wa Hezbollah.

Me Trump ya faɗi?

Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya yi magana a lokuta biyu daban‑daban kan yiwuwar Syria ta taka rawa wajen tinkarar kungiyar Hezbollah a Lebanon.

Magana ta farko ta zo ne a ranar 16 ga Yuni na wannan shekara, yayin ganawarsa da Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Sarkin Qatar, a gefen taron ƙasashen G7 da aka gudanar a Faransa.

Mista Trump ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa ya ba Isra'ila shawarar su "bar Syria da Hezbollah," yana mai cewa: "Gaskiya, ina ganin za su iya yin aiki fiye da yadda ake tsammani."

Kalaman Trump sun zo ne a matsayin amsa ga tambaya kan hare‑haren Isra'ila a Lebanon da kuma tasirinsu ga tattaunawar diflomasiyya da ta shafi Iran.

Trump ya yaba wa Shugaban Syria Ahmed al‑Sharaa, yana cewa mutumin da "ke tafiyar da harkokin Syria yanzu," tare da Shugaban Turkiyya Recep Tayyip Erdogan da wasu, sun yi "aiki mai ban mamaki" wajen sake haɗa ƙasar.

Ya ƙara da cewa Ahmed al‑Sharaa "ba tsarkakakke ba ne," amma ya yi "aiki ƙwarai" a Syria, ya kuma yi kyakkyawan aiki wajen mu'amala da Hezbollah, kuma a cewar Trump, "ba ya son su."

Daga nan Trump ya soki yadda Isra'ila ke mu'amala da Hezbollah a Lebanon, yana cewa Isra'ila ta daɗe tana fafatawa da ƙungiyar kuma "mutane da dama na mutuwa."

Ya kuma ƙara da cewa "ba dole ba ne a lalata gine-gine a duk lokacin da ake neman mutum," saboda akwai mutane da yawa da ke rayuwa a waɗannan gine‑gine, "ba dukkansu ba ne mambobin Hezbollah."

Kwana guda bayan haka, kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya ruwaito cewa Donald Trump ya tabbatar wa wani ɗan jarida cewa haƙiƙa ya yi magana da Ahmed al‑Sharaa game da Hezbollah.

Lokacin da aka tambaye shi ko shugaban Syria ya shirya tunkarar ƙungiyar, Trump ya ce zai tattauna batun nan gaba.

Abin lura shi ne Trump bai ambaci wata rawa ga jami'an Lebanon a cikin kalamansa ba, kuma bai ce ya sanar ko ya tattauna da su kan yiwuwar rawar da Syria za ta taka a Lebanon ba.

Shugaban Lebanon Joseph Aoun ya taɓa bayyanawa a baya, a wasu kalaman da kafofin watsa labarai na Larabawa suka wallafa, cewa ba ya ganin shugaban Syria zai shiga harkokin Lebanon, yana mai cewa Ahmed al‑Sharaa yana da "kyakkyawar fahimtar alhaki da wayewar siyasa," kuma ba zai bari a jawo shi cikin "rikice‑rikicen Lebanon" ba.

Wane martani Syria ta mayar?

A ranar 13 ga Yuni, yayin wata ganawa da wasu manyan mutane na kusa da shi da kuma fitattun mutane daga yankunan ƙetare na Damascus a Fadarsa, Shugaban Syria Ahmed al‑Sharaa ya ƙaryata abin da ya kira "jita‑jita" game da tsoma bakin Syria a Lebanon.

Mista Sharaa ya ce: "Abin da ake cewa Syria za ta shiga Lebanon ba gaskiya ba ne.

Abin da muke ba da shawara a kai a kai shi ne a dakatar da yaƙi, a ƙarfafa cibiyoyin gwamnati, a ƙara alaƙar tattalin arziki, da kuma a natsu da halin da ake ciki a Lebanon gwargwadon iko."

Game da alaƙar Lebanon da Syria, Mista Sharaa ya bayyana cewa waɗannan alaƙa sun ginu ne a kan "tushen ƙarya" a lokacin tsohuwar gwamnati. Ya nuna cewa akwai "raunin Lebanon" sakamakon tsoma bakin Syria a ƙasar, da kuma "raunin Syria" sakamakon tsoma bakin Hezbollah a harkokin Syria.

Kalaman Mista Sharaa sun zo ne kwanaki kaɗan bayan da Mista Trump ya ambaci yiwuwar Syria za ta taimaka wajen mu'amala da Hezbollah a Lebanon, a wata hira da ya yi da NBC.

A wannan yanayi, gidan radiyo da talabijin na Isra'ila "Kan 11", ya yi nuni da wata majiya daga Syria da ba a bayyana sunanta ba, ta hanyar ruwaito cewa Damascus na ganin cewa tsoma bakin soja kai tsaye kan Hezbollah ba abu ne mai yiwuwa ba, saboda ƙasashen Larabawa na iya kallon hakan a matsayin aiki da zai amfani Isra'ila.

Gidan talbijin ɗin ya kuma ruwaito, daga wannan majiya, cewa Turkiyya ta aikawa jami'an Syria saƙonni tana roƙon su da su guji shiga rikici kai tsaye da Hezbollah, saboda tana fargabar cewa irin wannan rikici na iya ƙarfafa matsayin dabarun Isra'ila a yankin.

Shekaru 50 tun bayan shigar sojin Syria Lebanon

Tsoma bakin sojan Syria kai tsaye a Lebanon ya fara ne a ƙarshen watan Mayun 1976, kusan shekara guda bayan fara Yaƙin Basasa na Lebanon, a lokacin da rikici ya tsananta tsakanin Ƙungiyar Lebanese National Movement da kuma Lebanese Front.

Ƙungiyar Lebanese National Movement wata haɗaka ce ta ƙungiyoyin masu sassaucin ra'ayi da masu kishin ƙasa, da kuma masu ra'ayin addini, waɗanda ƙungiyoyin 'yan gwagwarmayar Falasɗinu ke goyon baya.

A gefe guda kuma, Lebanese Front wata haɗaka ce ta jam'iyyun Kiristoci na masu ra'ayin riƙau, ciki har da Jam'iyyar Kata'ib da kuma Free Nationalist Party.

A ƙarƙashin tsohon Shugaba Hafez al‑Assad, Syria ta bayyana dalilan tsoma bakinta da cewa tana son dakatar da yaƙin, hana rushewar Lebanon, da kuma shawo kan yaduwar rikicin.

Amma kuma ta bi kiran taimako daga ƙungiyoyin Kiristoci na Lebanon, waɗanda a wancan lokaci ke fuskantar matsin lamba mai ƙarfi daga abokan hamayyarsu.

A farkon lokaci, tsoma bakin Syria ya sa sojojinta suka fafata da ƙungiyoyin Falasɗinu da kuma waɗanda ke da alaƙa da Lebanese National Movement.

Wannan ya zo ne duk da cewa Damascus a baya ta goyi bayan wasu daga cikin ƙungiyoyin Falasɗinu da na Lebanon, ko kuma ya yi ƙoƙarin yin tasiri a kan yarjejeniyoyin da ake yi.

Bayan haka, haɗin gwiwar Syria a cikin Lebanon ya riƙa sauyawa sau da dama, gwargwadon yadda ƙarfi ke sauyawa da kuma yadda Damascus ke lissafin manufofinta na yankin da na cikin gida.

A watan Oktoba 1976, kasancewar sojojin Syria a Lebanon ta samu wani tsarin Larabawa bayan da aka kafa "Rundunar hana rikici ta Larabawa" (Arab Deterrent Forces) bisa shawarar Kungiyar Kasashen Larabawa, duk da cewa a zahiri yawancin rundunar ta ƙunshi sojojin Syria ne.

Kasancewar sojojin Syria da jami'an tsaro a Lebanon ya ci gaba har zuwa shekarar 2005.

A wannan shekarar ne Damascus ta janye sojojinta daga ƙasar, bayan kisan tsohon Firaministan Lebanon Rafik Hariri, sakamakon matsin lamba daga zanga‑zangar jama'a a Lebanon da kuma ƙudurin Kwamitin Sulhu na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya mai lamba 1559.

A ranar 26 ga Afrilu 2005, Syria ta sanar da Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya cewa ta kammala janye dukkan sojoji, kayan aiki, da kuma hukumomin leƙen asiri daga Lebanon.

Hezbollah a Syria

Bayan fara zanga‑zangar adawa da gwamnatin Bashar al‑Assad a Syria a shekarar 2011, wadda daga baya ta rikide zuwa rikicin makami, ƙungiyar Hezbollah ta shiga da karfin soji domin taimaka wa sojojin gwamnatin Syria wajen yaƙi da kungiyoyin 'yan adawa masu dauke da makamai da kuma ƙungiyoyin jihadi.

Ƙungiyar ta yi yaƙi tare da sojojin Syria a wurare da dama, daga gefen birnin Homs da Qusayr kusa da iyakar Lebanon, zuwa Aleppo, kewaye da Damascus da sauran yankuna.

A hankali Hezbollah ta fara bayyana kasancewarta a Syria a bainar jama'a: da farko tana cewa tana kare wuraren ibadar 'yan Shi'a da ƙauyukan kan iyaka, daga bisani tana kare iyakar Lebanon, sannan daga ƙarshe ta bayyana a fili cewa tana shiga yaƙin cikin Syria.

Kungiyar ta yi asarar mayaƙa da dama da kuma manyan kwamandojinta a wannan yaƙi.

Daga baya, Hezbollah ta fafata da 'yan bindiga na Syria a kan iyakar Lebanon da Syria, musamman a yankunan tsaunuka na Arsal da Qalamoun.

A shekarar 2017, sojojin Lebanon ƙarƙashin jagorancin Janar Joseph Aoun sun ƙaddamar da wani farmakin soja kan ƙungiyar IS a yankunan tsaunuka na Ras Baalbek da Al‑Qa'a.

A lokaci guda, Hezbollah da sojojin Syria ma suna gudanar da hare‑hare a ɓangaren Syria na iyakar da kuma sauran yankunan kan iyaka. A wancan lokaci, sojojin Lebanon sun jaddada cewa ba sa haɗa kai da Hezbollah ko sojojin Syria a ayyukansu.

Da faduwar gwamnatin Assad a watan Disamba 2024, Hezbollah ta rasa babban abokin ƙawancenta na Syria da kuma ɗaya daga cikin manyan hanyoyin samun kayayyakin ta hanyar Syria, lamarin da ya zama babban koma baya a dabarunta.

Kamfanin dillancin labarai Reuters ya ruwaito cewa yawancin mayaƙan Hezbollah da kwamandojinsu sun bar Syria zuwa watan Oktoba 2024 domin mayar da hankali kan yaƙin da suke yi da Isra'ila a Lebanon.

Yayin da ƙungiyoyin 'yan adawa ke kusantar Damascus, ƙungiyar ta tura jami'an da za su kula da fitar da sauran mayaƙanta da suka rage a can.

Me ya sa yanayin ke cike da sarƙaƙiya?

Andrew J. Tabler, wani mai bincike a Cibiyar Nazarin Gabas ta Tsakiya ta Washington mai suna Washington Institute for Near East Studies, ya yi gargaɗin cewa ƙarfafa Syria ta shiga da karfin soji cikin Lebanon na iya haifar da manyan haɗurra ga Damascus da kuma Washington.

Mista Tabler ya yi imanin cewa wata gwamnati da har yanzu ke ƙoƙarin ƙarfafa ikon ta a cikin gida a Syria ba ta cikin yanayin da za ta iya buɗe sabbin fannoni na yaƙi a waje da iyakokinta ba.

Mai binciken ya nuna wasu dalilai da za su sa duk wani tsoma bakin Syria a Lebanon ya zama mai cike da haɗari.

A cewarsa, irin wannan mataki zai iya, da farko, ƙara ƙarfafa tashin hankali a yankin tare da jawo shigar hanyoyin da Iran ke tallafawa a Syria, Iraq da sauran wurare.

Na biyu, a cewar Tabler, duk wani tsoma bakin soja na Syria zai iya tayar da rikicin addini a Lebanon da ma yankin baki ɗaya.

Ya rubuta cewa wataƙila Hezbollah za ta yi ƙoƙarin nuna sojojin Syria a matsayin "'yan jihadi masu bin Sunni," ciki har da mayaƙa daga Syria, Uzbekistan da Uighur, tare da kai hari ga al'ummomin Shi'a.

Irin wannan labari na iya ƙarfafa goyon baya ga Hezbollah a muhimman yankunanta.

Na uku, Tabler ya yi nuni da cewa sake kasancewar sojojin Syria a Lebanon na iya raunana sahihancin gwamnatin Lebanon.

Ya yi hasashen cewa mutane da yawa a Lebanon, la'akari da shekarun da Syria ta shafe tana da ikon soja da na tsaro a ƙarƙashin Assad, za su ɗauki hakan ba a matsayin taimako ga 'yancin kai ba, sai dai a matsayin wani sabon nau'i na mamaya daga waje.

Tabler ya ce a cikin rikicin da ake ciki yanzu, Damascus ta fi mai da hankali ne kan hana illolin rikicin su bazu cikin Syria, maimakon shirya yaƙin waje.

Wannan ya haɗa da ƙarfafa tsaron iyakoki, sa ido kan iyakokin Lebanon da Iraq, da kuma sintiri a waɗannan yankuna.

Ya kuma lura cewa gwamnatin Syria na fuskantar ƙarin matsin lamba na cikin gida, ciki har da matsalolin wutar lantarki da kuma yawan 'yan Syria da ke shigowa daga Lebanon.

An ruwaito cewa sama da mutane 125,000—mafi yawansu 'yan Syria ne—sun tsallaka iyaka zuwa Syria tun bayan da rikicin Lebanon ya tsananta.

A Lebanon, kalaman Shugaba Joseph Aoun na cewa ka da a ja Syria cikin "ƙazanta na Lebanon" na nuna wahalar yanayin siyasa a ƙasar: tsarin tsaro mai rauni, tattalin arziƙi cikin matsanancin hali, da kuma babban rikici na siyasa da addini game da makaman Hezbollah da rawar da gwamnati za ta taka.

Abin da ke ƙara rikitar da batun tsoma bakin Syria shi ne cewa yankunan Lebanon da ke kan iyaka da Syria ba su da daidaiton siyasa ko addini, kuma ba su tsaya ga yankunan da Hezbollah ke tasiri ba kawai, har ma sun haɗa da garuruwa da yankuna masu al'adu da addinai mabanbanta.

Tun bayan faduwar gwamnatin Assad a watan Disamba 2024, iyakar Lebanon da Syria ta shaida yawan rikicin tsaro tsakanin sojojin Syria da Hezbollah ko waɗanda ke da alaƙa da ita.

Babban rikicin da ya faru shi ne a watan Maris, lokacin da rikicin Isra'ila da Hezbollah ya ƙara tsananta a Lebanon.

A wannan lokaci, Ahmed Sharaa, a wani taro na bidiyo da Majalisar Turai da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai suka shirya, ya jaddada goyon bayan Damascus ga zaman lafiya da cikakken ikon ƙasar Lebanon, inda ya ce Syria na goyon bayan ƙoƙarin Shugaban Lebanon Joseph Aoun na kwace makaman Hezbollah.

Kafafen yaɗa labarai na gwamnatin Syria da wasu kafafe sun ruwaito cewa wasu shugabannin yankin ma sun halarci taron domin tattauna ci gaban harkokin soja, hanyoyin rage tashin hankali, da yiwuwar ƙarfafa hanyoyin diflomasiyya.

Mista Sharaa ya ce a wannan taron Syria ta haɗa matsayarta da ƙasashen yankin, kuma a matsayin kariya na ƙarfafa rundunonin tsaro a kan iyakoki domin hana rikicin ya kutsa cikin ƙasar Syria, da kuma hana ƙungiyoyi masu aiki a kan iyaka amfani da yankin Syria.

A gefe guda kuma, bisa ga rahotannin kafofin watsa labarai na Lebanon da Larabawa, wata ƙungiya da ke kiran kanta mai fafutukar kare kai a Iraƙi wato "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" ta fitar da wata sanarwa a ranar 11 ga Maris tana gargadin Ahmed Sharaa kan duk yiwuwar ɗaukar duk wani matakin soja a Lebanon, tana mai bayyana hakan a matsayin "sanarwar yaƙi ga gungun masu fafutukar gwagwarmaya".

Sanarwar da aka aika wa sojojin Syria ta ce: "Idan kuka kuskura kuka kai hari kan Lebanon da jama'arta masu juriya, za mu mayar da ƙasarku tamkar wuta."