Me ya ba ƙungiyar IS damar faɗaɗa tasirinta a arewa maso yammacin Najeriya?

Kungiyar masu iƙrarin jihadi ta IS a watan Mayu ta sanar da harin farko da reshen ta na yankin Sahel ya kai a yankin arewa maso yammacin Najeriya, musamman a jihohin Sokoto da Kebbi.

Reshen IS na Sahel ya ɗauki alhakin hare-hare da dama a Jamhuriyar Nijar cikin shekara guda da ta gabata.

A lokaci guda kuma, akwai alamu da dama cewa IS da kuma abokiyar hamayyarta al-Qaeda ta reshen Jama'at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM) suna fafatawa kan iko a yankunan da ke maƙwabtaka a Burkina Faso da Benin.

Rahotanni daga wasu majiyoyi sun nuna cewa faɗaɗar IS zuwa Sokoto da Kebbi ta samu ne ta hanyar haɗa kai da mayaƙan jihadi da ke aiki a waɗannan yankuna, waɗanda aka fi sani da suna "Lakurawa".

Rikice‑rikicen da ake dangantawa da masu jihadi da 'yan bindiga sun jawo tabarbarewar tsaro a waɗannan jihohi biyu a cikin shekarun baya‑bayan nan.

Wannan rashin kwanciyar hankali na iya sauƙaƙa wa IS ƙara yawan ayyukanta na ɓoye.

A ƙarshen watan Disamba, Amurka ta sanar da cewa ta kai hare‑haren sama kan mayakan IS a jihohin Sokoto da Kebbi.

Yadda IS ta kitsa hare-haren Sokoto da Kebbi

Sanarwar farko da IS ta yi game da hare‑haren da ta kai kan sojoji a arewa maso yammacin Najeriya ta fito ne a jaridarta ta al‑Naba a ranar 28 ga watan Mayu (fitowa ta 549).

Kafin nan kuma sai da kafofin watsa labarai na Najeriya suka danganta waɗannan hare‑hare—waɗanda suka faru a ranar 24 ga Maris da 16 ga Mayu—ga mayakan Lakurawa.

Al‑Naba ta yi ikirarin cewa waɗannan hare‑hare alama ce ta "faɗaɗa sabon fagen yaƙi", tana mai cewa wannan ne karo na farko da reshen ƙungiyar na Sahel ya ɗauki alhakin hare‑hare a arewa maso yammacin Najeriya.

Ta kuma ce an kai wasu hare‑hare a waɗannan yankuna tun kafin haka, amma ba a bayyana su a matsayin na IS ba "saboda dalilan tsaro".

Ana ganin wannan sanarwar ta zo ne a matsayin martani ga farmakin soji na haɗin gwiwar Amurka da Najeriya da aka kai a ranar 16 ga Mayu a jihar Borno a arewa maso gabashin ƙasar, wanda Shugaba Trump ya ce ya hallaka wani babban jigo na IS mai suna Abu Bilal al‑Manuki.

Jaridar ta Al‑Naba ta kuma cika baki da cewa shugabannin Najeriya "dole ne yanzu su wahala wajen tattara gawarwakin sojojinsu, daga Borno a gabas zuwa Sokoto a yammaci, sannan za mu gani ko sun amfana daga jiragen yakin Amurka."

Yadda ƙungiyoyin suka faɗaɗa ayyukansu

A shekarar da ta gabata, IS ta riƙa ɗaukar alhakin kai hare‑hare a yankunan Dosso da Tahoua na Jamhuriyar Nijar, waɗanda duka ba su da nisa da iyakar Najeriya.

Waɗannan hare‑hare sun faru ne kilomita ɗaruruwa daga manyan wuraren da reshen IS na Sahel ke gudanar da ayyukansa a Nijar, waɗanda suka fi karkata a yankin Tillaberi kusa da iyakokin Burkina Faso da Mali.

Saboda haka, wannan jerin hare‑haren da aka gani a kan iyakar Nijar da Najeriya na nuna alamar cewa akwai wani sabon yanki na ayyukan IS da ya bambanta kaɗan, wanda ya shafi jihohin Sokoto da Kebbi a Najeriya da kuma yankunan Dosso da Tahoua a Nijar.

A watan Disamba na shekarar 2025, al‑Naba ta yi iƙirarin cewa waɗannan hare‑hare a kan iyakar Nijar da Najeriya sun "haifar da damuwar tsaro ta bai‑daya" ga gwamnatocin Nijar da Najeriya.

Shin Lakurawa wani sabon suna ne ga ƙungiyar IS?

Mayaƙan "Lakurawa" sun fara bayyana ne a watan Nuwamba na shekarar 2024, bayan wasu jerin hare‑hare da suka faru a jihohin Sokoto da Kebbi da ke arewa maso yammacin Najeriyar.

Ƙwararru na Kwamitin Tsaro na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, a cikin wani rahoto na watan Yuli 2025, sun ambaci cewa Lakurawa sun ruwaito sun yi mubaya'a ga IS, tare da gargadin cewa IS na "faɗaɗa ikonta ta hanyoyin tallafi a yankin arewa maso yammacin Najeriya".

Wani bincike da masana ilimi kamar Victor Foucher da James Barnett suka gudanar ya goyi bayan wannan alaƙa ta Lakurawa da IS, inda suka lura cewa ana amfani da kalmar "Lakurawa" a matsayin suna gama‑gari wajen haɗa mayaƙan jihadi masu mabanbantan alaƙa.

A tsakiyar shekarar 2025, wasu fitattun kafofin da ke goyon bayan IS sun nuna Sokoto da Kebbi a matsayin yankunan da ƙungiyar za ta iya faɗaɗa tasirinta.

Kungiyar sa ido kan rikice‑rikice, ACLED, wadda ake amfani da bayananta a wannan rahoto, ba ta amfani da "Lakurawa" a matsayin rukuni na daban—mako guda tana danganta wadannan hare‑hare da reshen IS na Sahel.

Rahoton ACLED ya bayyana cewa ana amfani da kalmar Lakurawa ne "wajen nufin sabbin masu shiga da mayakan ISSP [reshen IS na Sahel] da ke aiki a yankunan iyakar Nijar da Najeriya, maimakon wata ƙungiya ta daban".

ACLED ta ruwaito cewa an samu sama da hare‑hare 100 da ke da alaƙa da ƙungiyar IS da ke yaƙi a yankin Sahel da ake kira da ISPP a jihohin Sokoto da Kebbi tsakanin shekarun 2025 da 2026, daga cikin rikice-rikice 500 da aka samu.

Bayananta sun nuna cewa mafi yawan ayyukan Lakurawa sun fi karkata ne a ƙananan hukumomin Tangaza a jihar Sokoto da Arewa a jihar Kebbi, waɗanda dukkansu ke kan iyakar Najeriya da jamhuriyar Nijar.

Me al'umma ke faɗi dangane da Lakurawa?

Mayaƙan Lakurawa—waɗanda ake cewa sun samo asali ne daga Mali da Nijar—sun daɗe sun daɗe suna zaune a yankin arewa maso yammacin Najeriya.

An ruwaito cewa al'ummomin yankin ne suka ɗauki waɗannan mayaƙa—waɗanda ke kiran kansu "mujahidai"—a matsayin 'yan sa‑kai domin kare su daga 'yan bindigar da ke kai hare‑hare daga maƙwabciyar jihar Zamfara.

A shekarar 2018, 'yan sandan Najeriya sun bayyana wannan rukuni a matsayin makiyaya da "ke magana da harshen Larabci da kuma Fulatanci wato Fulfude".

Rahotanni daga kafofin watsa labarai na Najeriya sun nuna cewa waɗannan mutane sun shafe shekaru suna aiki a ƙauyukan da ke kan iyakar Sokoto, inda suke bayar da kariya da tilasta karɓar harajin "Zakkah", da koyar da tsattsauran ra'ayin addinin Musulunci, da kuma ɗaukar sabbin mabiya daga cikin al'umma.

Rikicin da ya biyo bayan juyin mulki na watan Yuli 2023 a Nijar ya bai wa Lakurawa da IS damar samun 'yanci mafi yawa wajen shiga da fita tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, musamman saboda lalacewar dangantaka tsakanin hukumomin Nijar da gwamnatin Najeriya.

Bayan harin farko mai ɗaukar hankali da suka kai a ranar 8 ga Nuwamba 2024 da kuma haramta ƙungiyar a watan Janairun 2025, kafofin watsa labarai na cikin gida sun ruwaito cigaba da ƙaruwar hare‑haren da ake dangantawa da Lakurawa.

Shafin jaridar HumAngle mai bibiyar ayyukan ta'addanci ya rubuta cewa akalla an samu hare‑hare guda bakwai da suka shafi Lakurawa tsakanin watan Janairu zuwa Yunin 2025, inda mutum 21 daga cikin waɗanda aka kashe fararen hula ne, 16 'yan sa‑kai , da kuma maharba 13.

Waɗanne ƙarin dalilai ne suka janyo rikice-rikice a Sokoto da Kebbi?

A watanni shida na ƙarshen shekarar 2025 an samu ƙaruwa sosai ta garkuwa da mutane da hare‑haren 'yan bindiga a yankin arewa maso yamma.

Yawancin waɗannan hare‑haren sun faru ne jim kaɗan bayan kalaman da Shugaba Trump ya yi a ranar 1 ga watan Nuwamban 2025, inda ya nuna cewa ya shirya ɗaukar matakin soja a Najeriya saboda damuwa kan abin da ya kira "kisan kare‑dangi ga Kiristoci".

Yankunan da suka fi fuskantar tashin hankali a Sokoto, kamar ƙananan hukumomin Sabon Birni da Isa waɗanda ke makwabtaka da jihar Zamfara, sun shahara a matsayin wuraren da 'yan bindiga ke yawan kai hare‑hare.

An fi danganta fitaccen ɗan bindiga Bello Turji da wasu hare‑hare a Sabon Birni.

A jihar Kebbi kuwa, ƙaramar hukumar Danko Wasagu ta kasance wurin da aka yi garkuwa da 'yan mata ƴan makaranta 25 a watan Nuwamban 2025, lamarin da ya sa Shugaban ƙasa Bola Tinubu ya shiga tsakani.

Kafofin watsa labarai na cikin gida sun riƙa jaddada hare‑haren da 'yan bindiga ke kai wa manoma a wannan yankin.

Shin ko adawa tsakanin ƙungiyoyin jihadi ya sa suke ƙara faɗaɗa?

Kutsawar mayakan jihadi yankin arewa maso yammacin Najeriya na iya ƙara ƙarfi sakamakon fafatawa tsakanin ɓangarorin da ke goyon bayan IS da kuma al‑Qaeda.

Reshen al‑Qaeda na yankin Sahel, Jama'at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM), a watan Nuwamba ya ɗauki alhakin harinsa na farko a Najeriya, a jihar Kwara da ke tsakiyar Najeriya.

Daga baya kuma, a watan Afrilu na wannan shekara, an ruwaito cewa an yi arangama a jihar ta Kwara tsakanin IS da JNIM.

Duk da cewa JNIM ta fi ƙaddamar da hare-harenta ƙasashen Mali, Burkina Faso da Nijar, to amma ta kuma fara bayyana a Benin, wadda ke maƙwabtaka kai tsaye da yammacin Najeriya.

Ko da yake IS ta taɓa ɗaukar alhakin wasu hare‑hare a arewacin Benin a tsakiyar shekarar 2022, yanzu JNIM ta bayyana a matsayin babbar ƙungiyar jihadi a wannan yankin.

Jihohin Neja da Kwara na Najeriya sun fuskanci ayyukan ƙungiyoyin jihadi daban‑daban masu aƙidu da alaƙa mabambanta, ciki har da Ansaru wadda ke da alaƙa da al‑Qaeda.

Wace alaƙa ce tsakanin IS a Sahel da ISWAP?

Reshen IS na yammacin Afirka (ISWAP) na ƙarfi a arewa maso gabashin Najeriya, musamman a jihar Borno.

A shekarar 2022, ya riƙa ɗaukar alhakin jerin hare‑hare a faɗin ƙasar gaba ɗaya. Sai dai wannan faɗaɗawar ayyuka ta ragu da sauri sakamakon rahotannin kama ƴan ƙungiyar mayakan jihadin a wurare daban‑daban.

Tsawon shekaru da dama, reshen ISWAP ya haɗa yankunan Yammacin Afirka da na Sahel baki ɗaya. Sai dai a shekarar 2022 ne aka ware mayakan IS da ke Mali, Nijar da Burkina Faso a matsayin reshe na daban mai suna "Sahel Province".

Akwai alamun cewa an samu wani nau'i na haɗin kai na dabaru tsakanin reshen Sahel da ISWAP.

A 2022, an ji rade‑radin cewa an tura mayakan ISWAP zuwa Mali domin su shiga yaƙi da mayaƙan jihadi na al‑Qaeda waɗanda ke adawa da su.

Lokacin da a watan Janairu 2026 reshen Sahel ya kai hari kan filin jirgin sama na ƙasa da ƙasa na jamhuriyar Nijar, wasu masana sun yi amfani da hujjojin harshe wajen nuna cewa wasu mayakan ISWAP na iya kasancewa cikin harin.