Where did the figure of a £28bn shortfall for defence come from?published at 13:25 BST

13:25 BST

Image source, PA Media

By Anthony Reuben

Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said "the chief of the defence staff made it known that the armed forces needed a minimum of £28bn more to defend the country".

That figure was reported by the Times in January, external, which said the Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, had warned Keir Starmer at a meeting before Christmas that the Ministry of Defence faced a £28bn shortfall over the next four years.

A few days later, Sir Richard was asked about these reports, external when he appeared before a committee of MPs.

He did not confirm the figure, describing it as "speculation in the media", and stressed the meeting being reported on was classified.

When pressed on whether there was a shortfall, he said: "The cost of the programme depends on a whole bunch of assumptions that we might make and ultimately it will be a matter for ministers to make those based on the advice that I and others offer."

The Ministry of Defence says that number has not come from them.

Image source, UK Parliament

Keir Starmer's exchange with Kemi Badenoch today was dominated by the defence investment plan announced yesterday, which will see an increase in military spending of £15bn over the next four years. Here's a recap of their exchange:

• Badenoch accused the prime minister of leaving the "mess" of the finding some of the funding - £4.7bn - to his successor, asking if Andy Burnham, likely the next PM, had "agreed to fund the shortfall"
• Starmer responded by saying the Tories "hollowed out" the armed forces across their time in government, adding that "any Labour prime minister" would stand behind the defence investment plan
• The Tory leader said the head of the UK armed forces "made it known" the military needed a minimum of £28bn for defence, asking Starmer why he thinks "half that amount" is enough
• The PM said the plan gives the UK the capability it needs for the future with £300bn of investment over the next four years
• Badenoch later said the money needed for the plan should come from cuts to welfare spending - which she says Starmer was "too weak" to do
• The prime minister claimed in response that the country has financial "headroom" due to decisions made at the last Budget, saying that the Tories reduce defence spending and increased the welfare bill while in power

Davey next asks the prime minister about the "rising tide of racist violence and hate" in the UK.

He says he was told by a British friend of Indian ancestry that Reform UK "activists" came to her door and said that if their party gets into power her family will have their passports seized and citizenship revoked.

Starmer says racism and intolerance is "permeating everywhere" and it should be called out by every single person who is a politician "at any level in this country".

• We are reaching out to Reform UK about Sir Ed Davey's claim in Parliament.

Brian Wheeler
Reporting from the House of Commons

We might have expected an outbreak of football banter and Ed Davey does not disappoint with a slightly tortuous crack about Keir Starmer suffering similar defence woes to the England team, which elicits groans on all sides.

Starmer gives the Lib Dem leader a red card for his gag.

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey says the wars in Ukraine and Iran show the UK must take seriously the threat of missiles and drones hitting the country.

We need "the best possible missile defence system", he says, but the funding in Starmer's defence plan falls short.

Can the PM tell us why he leaves our country vulnerable to the missile threat, Davey asks.

Starmer replies that the defence investment plan gives the country what it needs to fight now and into the future.

Badenoch says defence is the "first duty of government" and Britain is facing a moment of danger unlike anything in their lifetimes.

She says Labour are "too weak, too little and too late" and calls for Burnham to condemn the defence investment plan.

She says the money for the plan should instead come from cutting welfare spending.

Starmer hits back by saying the Tories cut defence from 2.5% down to 2.3% while increasing the welfare bill.

He adds they oversaw "14 years of failure" and they should get up and apologise.

Starmer finishes by saying Labour has left Britain "better than we found it" and "that's the difference a Labour government makes".

Badenoch says the reason the PM is "in this mess" is because he was "too weak to cut welfare when he had the chance".

She says there were are only three ways to find what she describes as the missing £5bn - borrowing, increasing tax, or cutting welfare. She asks which of these Starmer will recommend to Burnham.

Starmer responds that the country has headroom because of decisions it made at the last Budget.

Brian Wheeler
Reporting from the House of Commons

Penny for John Healey’s thoughts.

The former defence secretary - who quit over defence spending - is watching these exchanges with arms folded and an impassive expression on his face.

He is standing at the entrance to the chamber with other MPs who haven’t been able to get a seat.

Badenoch says that the defence investment plan should have been published in the last Budget.

She again says £5bn is "missing" from his plan and that it relies on unidentified savings.

Badenoch asks whether Burnham knew he "was going to have to find £5bn for the prime minister's plan".

Starmer again attacks the Conservative defence record, saying they "cut defence spending" and "hollowed out the armed forces" and he won't take any lectures from them.

"Any Labour prime minister would stand behind this plan," he adds.

• For context, £4.7bn will need to be found by the PM's successor in the next Budget to make up the £15bn increase in military spending

Badenoch says the threat level has changed dramatically since Starmer took office.

The defence investment plan has "unravelled" she says, and they are spending too much money instead on welfare.

It is £5bn short, she says, and Starmer is "leaving this mess" to his successor.

Badenoch asks if Andy Burnham agreed to fund the shortfall.

Starmer replies that the Tories cut defence spending, and that he will take no lectures on either welfare or defence from them.

This is £15bn of new investment for defence delivered outside of a Budget and outside of a spending review, he says.

What matters is this is the biggest sustained increase for 40 years to keep the country safe, he adds.

Image source, UK Parliament

Badenoch mentions John Healey's resignation three weeks ago - and says he has only increased defence spending by 0.01% since then.

“We can count, the generals can count, the Kremlin can count," she says.

She says the plan "doesn't add up" and asks how he can say it is enough.

Starmer responds by saying it is "the most significant upgrade in defence spending since the 1980s".

He says the Tories "hollowed out" the armed forces, saying his party has raised defence spending and has a record "I am proud of".

• £15bn: The increase in military spending over the next four years announced by Starmer yesterday, funded by cutting investment budgets in other areas
• £10.3bn: The savings identified to meet the £15bn bill
• £4.7bn: The amount that will need to be found by the PM's successor in the next Budget to make up the £15bn cost
• £28bn: The increase in military spending that had reportedly been sought by defence chiefs
• £298bn: The total amount earmarked in the defence investment plan (DIP) for defence over the next four years
• 2.7%: Projected UK defence spending by 2030, as a proportion of GDP - according to the DIP

• 3.5%: Nato's defence spending target by 2035, as a proportion of GDP

Read more on the figures in BBC Verify's analysis here.

In response, Starmer says the defence investment plan gives the UK the capability it needs for the future with £300bn of investment over the next four years.

He goes on to list the changes it will make.

"That is what is needed to keep our country safe," he says.

Image source, UK Parliament

Badenoch is up and asks Starmer about the defence investment plan.

She says the head of the UK armed forces "made it known" that the military needed a minimum of £28bn more to defend the country.

She asks if Starmer can explain why he thinks "half that amount" is enough.

• You can read more on the key figures from the defence investment plan here

Brian Wheeler
Reporting from the House of Commons

Eyes down for what is likely to be Keir Starmer’s penultimate PMQs before he stands down.

The outgoing PM got a big cheer from Labour MPs as he strolled to his position on the front bench.

No sign of his likely successor Andy Burnham again this week.

Image source, UK Parliament

Keir Starmer is on his feet at the dispatch box and PMQs is under way.

You can watch live at the top of this page.

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader and prime minister on 22 June.

He asked Labour's ruling body for the nomination process to replace him to open on Thursday 9 July, and close by the summer recess of Parliament, which is Thursday 16 July.

If – as seems likely – there is only one nominee, there will be no leadership contest. Andy Burnham is then expected to be announced as the new Labour leader on Friday 17 July, before being appointed prime minister on Monday, 20 July.

Prime Minister’s Questions are always held on Wednesdays, meaning that – including today – Starmer could have only three sessions left.

However, next Wednesday is day two of a Nato summit in Turkey, meaning Starmer could be absent. That means today could be his penultimate PMQs as prime minister.

Image source, PA Media

Keir Starmer has left Downing Street and is on his way to the House of Commons for PMQs.

Kate Whannel
Political reporter

Image source, PA Media

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set out how (some) of the increased defence spending will be paid for.

She says funding for £10.3bn of the £15bn boost has been identified, but interestingly £4.7bn will not be set out until this year's Budget, expected in the autumn.

That means finding the extra money will be a question for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's replacement - potentially Andy Burnham.

Here are some of the areas Reeves says she has been able to find more money:

• Cutting departments' capital budgets (that’s money for long-term investments, rather than day-to-day spending) by 1%
• Scrapping some road projects - including potentially cancelling the A38 Derby junctions and the A46 Newark Bypass schemes - to save £700m
• Selling off some Ministry of Defence assets for £400m
• £2bn from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (more detailed plans are expected in the autumn)
• Moving responsibility for some activities from defence to the Treasury, freeing up £2.4bn

Image source, Reuters

• Andy Burnham - who will most likely be the next prime minister - outlined a broad vision for how he would govern, including basing part of the No 10 team in Manchester to "oversee the biggest rebalancing of power our country has ever seen"
• In her own speech on Monday, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch warned "the government is descending into chaos", and called for Burnham to put an end to speculation and announce his plans in Parliament before it breaks for the summer

• Resident doctors in England voted to accept the government's offer on pay and jobs bringing an end to three years of strikes

• The Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced plans that would see asylum seekers made to pay up to £10,000 towards the cost of their accommodation and support once they start earning
• Reform UK leader Nigel Farage earned £270,000 for advertising gold bullion, the single biggest payment he has registered since becoming an MP, the latest data from the list of MPs' interests showed
• The government promised to act on NHS maternity failings after a damning report found women and babies were failed "on a scale that shames our society"