Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

Alberta and Quebec - two provinces that combined make up a third of Canada’s overall population - are both openly discussing separation.

There is no doubt that Quebec’s independence movement has had a major impact on the country’s politics. It’s possible that Alberta’s will as well.

But in both provinces, support for actual independence hovers around 30%.

In Quebec, support is at historic lows, despite a sovereigntist party winning a minority in the provincial election earlier this month. (The Parti Quebecois won with just 28% of the popular vote, which had more to do with the collapse of the incumbents and a other parties in the running).

In Alberta, separatists have long represented a minority position, even though frustration with Ottawa is more widespread.

In fact, many Canadians feel the country is more united than in along time as it faces tariffs and 51st state threats from Trump's White House.

Image source, Getty Images

• Alberta is a landlocked province in western Canada - it lies about 2,900km (1,800 miles) west of the country's capital, Ottawa

• It's home to 5.1 million people and includes two of the nation's biggest cities - Edmonton and Calgary
• The fourth largest province by area, stretching from the Canadian Rockies in the west to the flat plains in the east and boreal forests in the north
• It's the hub of Canada’s oil and gas industry, sitting on the fourth largest oil reserves in the world
• Alberta is the wealthiest province in Canada when looking at GDP per capita
• Each summer, more than a million visitors descend on the Calgary Stampede, a 10-day rodeo that celebrates the province's ranching culture
• In a further nod to its western roots, foot patrol officers in Calgary's downtown have the option to wear cowboy-style Stetsons year-round

Eloise Alanna
Reporting from Alberta

Image source, Reuters

Despite opposition from First Nations, the referendum question was put on the ballot by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative whose political base includes supporters of independence, but Smith says she backs what she calls a sovereign Alberta within an United Canada.

“I think this is an important time for us to be looking at the benefits that come from being part of Canada. That’s what I’ve been advocating. It’s why I’m voting remain," the premier has said.

In the months leading up to the referendum, Smith and PM Carney struck a deal to build a new oil pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific coast - an attempt to answer one of the separatists biggest grievances.

Image source, Reuters

Alongside the separation question, Albertans will vote on nine other issues - a number of which focus on whether the province should have more control over its immigration system.

The point of the referendum is to “directly gauge” public opinion on key issues, the Government of Alberta says on it’s webpage. Some of the questions, particularly on immigration, ask the voter if they approve of certain changes that the provincial government has proposed.

For example, question one asks:

“Do you support the Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities?”

Four other questions focus on the Canadian constitution and Alberta’s “sovereignty” from Ottawa - the Canadian capital.

Question eight, for example, asks:

Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs?

For questions 1-9, voters will select either “yes” or “no” on their ballots.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

Some of the most vocal opponents of separatism have been First Nations leaders, and for months they tried to block a vote on independence through the courts.

Long before Alberta became a part of Canada, Indigenous people have lived on the land. Some have legally fought the idea of separation, saying land treaties signed with the British Crown 150 years ago cannot simply be set aside by a referendum.

Samuel Crowfoot, the chief of Siksika Nation, says that he's seen "no talk from the separatists" about how they plan to address these concerns.

"[There's been] no reach out from any movements here to talk with any First Nation as far as I’m aware about what this new area of Alberta would look like if we were to separate from Canada," Crowfoot told me when we spoke earlier this year.

"This is not their land. These aren’t their resources," he says, stressing that "our future remains brightest if we stay in Canada".

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Image source, Reuters

I’ve been in Edmonton, the capital city of Alberta, for the last two days, where I’ve attended two separate rallies held by both pro-independence groups and pro-unity groups.

The turnout at the rallies, both held in front of the legislature grounds here in the city, were comparable.

But the mood was markedly different.

At the pro-unity rally, attendees told me they are confident most Albertans will vote to remain in Canada. The polling, so far, certainly suggests that may be the outcome.

Many dismiss the separatists’ cause as that of a minority, though they say they are out to remind people on their side to vote - fearing that some will stay home due to complacency.

Image source, Reuters

At the pro-independence rally, attendees expressed both anger at the federal government in Ottawa and hope that their frustrations may finally be heard.

Keith Wilson, one of the leaders of the separatist movement, told the crowd that regardless of the referendum’s outcome, “we’ve already won”.

Even if his side loses, Wilson said he believes the talk of separation is far from over.

Grace Eliza Goodwin
Live reporter

Image source, Toronto Star via Getty Images

Years of political tensions in Alberta have helped fuel the conditions for a separation question to ultimately end up on today's ballot.

And one of the biggest inflection points began with some Albertans' frustrations with the federal government's Covid mandates, says Feodor Snagovsky, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.

In 2022, hundreds of truck drivers from western Canada, including Alberta, formed the Freedom Convoy, holding a series of protests, border blockades, and a weeks-long occupation of downtown Ottawa in protest of the government's vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers and other policies.

Many of the people involved in the Freedom Convoy movement are now involved in the Alberta separatist movement, Snagovsky tells the BBC.

"When you talk to people in this movement, they say that they weren't political until Covid-19 happened," Snagovsky says. "They perceived there to be lots of government overreach and infringement upon their rights and freedoms."

"You can certainly draw a straight line between the genesis of that movement and the modern incarnation of Alberta separatism."

Bernd Debusmann Jr
White House reporter

Image source, EPA

President Trump is no fan of Canada's government, or of Prime Minister Mark Carney.

At a rally just this weekend in Kentucky that I attended, Trump again took aim at his northern neighbour, claiming - without any evidence - that the US is losing $90bn each year for the "priviledge" of allowing Canada to have its own healthcare system, suggesting that US economic policies are bankrolling Canadian programmes.

He has not, however, publicly weighed in on Alberta's independence movement, although he has not come out to support a united Canada either.

The closest we have to a statement from a senior administration official came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in January, when he told conservative news outlet Real America's Voice that Alberta would be a "natural partner" for the US.

"They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people," Bessent said, adding that "people want sovereignty. They want what the US has got".

In late January, an administration official also confirmed to the BBC that officials met from the Alberta Prosperity Project.

“Administration officials meet with a number of civil society groups. No such support, or any other commitments, was conveyed," the official said.

All of this falls well short of an endorsement or official policy position from the US government.

But depending on how things play out in Alberta, we may see President Trump comment on this over the next few days, whether at one of his many campaign rallies, in the Oval Office or on Truth Social.

Lyse Doucet
Chief international correspondent, reporting from Ottawa

Image source, Reuters

At a time when Canada’s star has been rising in many world capitals, a provincial vote on starting a process to pull out – widely seen as unlikely to succeed – may not ring alarm bells.

It seems to have attracted limited commentary so far, at least in certain circles.

The Economist magazine chose to put Prime Minister Mark Carney on its cover this week with a perfect red maple leaf between his teeth.

But it does mention “vulnerabilities”, including this vote.

In Paris, a headline in the French newspaper Le Monde declared “A risky separation gamble”. It mentions “echoes of Brexit” – a comparison with Britain’s vote which Carney has made himself.

There’s a different note south of the border, among supporters of President Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to take over Canada.

Podcasters like Tim Pool have pondered possible separatists in other provinces. “Divide and conquer, baby,” he jested.

World leaders usually call their peers if they win elections – will any of Carney’s colleagues speak about this delicate moment – in public or private?

Lyse Doucet
Chief international correspondent, reporting from Ottawa

Image source, Getty Images

A Canadian satirist once coined the phrase “never-endum referendum".

It was 1995. Quebec just had its second vote on sovereignty.

It failed, by a breathtaking 50.58%.

In 1980, it was defeated too.

The issue faded from view. But this month, the separatist Parti Québécois returned to power, albeit in a minority government, vowing to put it to a vote again – but only after President Trump completes his second term in 2029.

But the polls say some 70 percent of Quebecers don’t want to leave Canada.

But Quebec wasn’t the first province to sound a call to quit the federation.

Back in 1972, the Parti Acadien was formed in the eastern province of New Brunswick, demanding separation to protect the rights of French speakers there.

Grievances were addressed. New Brunswick became Canada’s only officially bilingual province.

The provincial premier Richard Hatfield, spoke of “killing separatism with kindness".

These days in Canada, it takes a lot more than that.

Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

While our reporter has just heard at a polling station about the impact that early voting has had on voter turnout today, we can now bring you some official data on that very issue.

And if advance polls are any indication, Albertans are making sure their voices are heard in this referendum.

Election Alberta - the provincial agency overseeing the vote - says that 1,356,873 people cast early ballots - just over 43% of eligible voters in the province.

That is significantly more than those who voted in advance in the last provincial election, in 2023, when 809,988 people did. That was only about 27% of those eligible.

Advance polls were open between 13 and 17 October, and the count also includes mail-in ballots.

Image source, Reuters

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

It’s a little more quiet at a polling station just west of Edmonton in a suburb called Sherwood Park.

Sherry Draper, an officer at the station, tells me that’s because 60% of eligible voters who live in the area already cast their ballot in advance, a percentage that is much higher than past elections in the province.

They cast their ballots either by mail or during early in-person voting.

“Everybody is coming out to vote in this referendum,” Draper says. “It’s unbelievable numbers.”

Asked why there is a high voter turnout, she says that she believes Albertans, regardless of what side they’re on, feel it is a consequential time to make their voice heard.

Question 10 — the one on separation — “seems to be the big one that people want to answer".

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter

Image source, Reuters

It's tough to know for sure what the economic impact would be on Alberta and the rest of Canada if the province succeeded in separating.

There are so many potential scenarios and questions. Would a free-trade agreement be established? Or would tariffs be imposed? And how would businesses operate across borders?

While economists and analysts have conducted research into potential outcomes, they are just estimates. No one can know for sure, though it would involve a lot of disruption and uncertainty while agreements were made and policies established.

What is clear is that Alberta is the home of Canada's oil and gas industry. It's oil reserves that are estimated to be the fourth largest in the world and crude oil is also by far Canada's most profitable commodity, accounting for C$142bn ($100.8bn, £75.6bn) in export value.

That means Alberta has a huge bargaining chip to campaign on and also to negotiate, if independence were ever to be established. Such a move would also deal a big economic blow to the rest of Canada.

However, as Capital Economics economist Bradley Saunders points out, in a scenario where Alberta broke away, Canada could impose toll charges on oil pipelines which run through other parts of the country.

Only one pipeline currently runs direct from Alberta to the US, one of its biggest customers.

Both sides in any divorce proceedings would come with ammunition.

Read more about Alberta's oil wealth.

Image source, Getty Images

Voters have around 8 more hours to cast their ballots in the Alberta referendum - but what happens after that?

If the majority are in favour of separation from Canada… The government of Alberta has said it would start the legal process for holding a binding referendum vote.

But before voting again… The provincial government would have to carry out consultations with First Nations, who have argued that separating from Canada would violate treaty rights.

Then… The Alberta government would need to agree on how the question would be phrased on the next ballot.

And finally… Before that question can be put in front of voters, national lawmakers in Canada’s lower chamber would get to weigh in on whether they think it is worded clearly.

And if the majority are in favour of staying, what then? It might kick the can down the road for a bit, but it wouldn’t necessarily “end” the separation sentiment. Last spring, Alberta's government filed an appeal against a judge's decision to halt a petition that looked to force a vote on separation (that petition garnered more than 300,000 signatures).

Image source, Getty Images

Today’s referendum happens in the shadow of a terrible fire that swept through a Canadian military base in Wainwright, Alberta this weekend.

The fire killed four Canadian service members and sent 39 people to hospital - 19 of them are in life-threatening condition.

The flames, the origins of which are still being investigated, spread rapidly through the military base, jumping one kilometre in the span of a minute as the wind shifted.

Addressing Canada’s parliament a short while ago, Prime Minister Mark Carney honoured the victims as “young men with bright futures who chose to serve our country and who died in that cause”.

“This loss touches every corner of our nation,” he added.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative opposition party and MP for the riding of Battle River-Crowfoot, Alberta, also addressed the House of Commons and urged people to stand with the wounded, and pray for their families.

“There will be birthdays, Thanksgivings, Christmases, weddings and many more special events with an empty chair at the dinner table. So we remember those families,” he said.

After Quebec narrowly voted to remain in Canada in 1995, a law was passed outlining the legal parameters concerning a province’s right to secede from the country.

The Clarity Act stipulates that a formal constitutional amendment is required for a province to leave Canada. Meaning that even if a majority of people vote for a province to secede in an official referendum, that doesn’t guarantee an immediate secession.

Instead, a successful independence referendum would kick-start negotiations. A province can vote to initiate secession discussions, but can not unilaterally vote to leave Canada.

As a reminder, today's vote is not an official referendum on secession.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

John Chmilar, 28, says he waited over an hour and a half in line to vote at a polling station in downtown Edmonton.

He voted for Alberta to remain in Canada, saying he disagrees with those who say Alberta has a distinct identity.

“Honestly, compared to the rest of the world, we just don’t have a history for it,” he says. “We’ve been a province for like a 100 years. How can you say we have a unique culture?”

“We’re part of Canada. That’s who we are,” Chmilar adds.

Jessica Murphy
Canada digital editor

Canada has grappled with threats to its unity before, including with occasional violence.

The province of Quebec held two referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995. Both were unsuccessful, though the second one was a nail-bitter - the “No” side won, squeaking by with just 50.58%. of the vote.

Alberta independence supporters don’t hide the fact that they gain inspiration from the majority French-speaking province.

They view Quebec as having successfully used the threat of separation to gain significant political leverage over Ottawa, and more autonomy over provincial affairs.

The movement shaped Canadian political debates for decades and 20 years ago, Parliament passed a motion officially recognising that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada, for the preservation of their unique language and culture within the country.

And despite support for Quebec sovereignty being at historic lows, a newly elected provincial government has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Outside the Alberta legislature in Edmonton yesterday, we ran into two men dressed as superheroes, each representing opposite sides of the separation debate. They declined to give us their names, but “Canada Guy” and “Mr Alberta” explained to us why they feel so passionately about today's vote.

Stay Free Alberta is the organising vehicle behind the citizen-led petition calling for an independence referendum. They claimed to have collected more than 300,000 signatures to support their cause.

Stay Free Alberta is backed by a group called the Alberta Prosperity Project, which describes itself as “a growing movement of Albertans who want freedom from federal overreach”, according to the group’s website.

Mitch Sylvestre, a gun-shop owner from an Alberta town called Bonnyville, is one of the group’s leaders, along with Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer based in Calgary. They argue that the province's economic growth has been hindered by years of Liberal party rule in Ottawa.

This sentiment has its roots in “western alienation” which is a term that has been used for decades by some in Canada’s western provinces to describe a feeling of being ignored or overlooked by the federal government.