Farage's bet is not risk-freepublished at 16:46 BST
Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
This is clearly an attempt by Nigel Farage to grab the political agenda.
He is challenging the other parties to demonstrate to the electorate that he should be re-elected.
In truth, I think he's making a pretty safe one-way bet. It is a constituency where he had an 18-point lead back in July 2024.
And although Reform is not as popular as they once were, they're still running at around 26% in the opinion polls, well above the 15% that they got in July 2024.
That said, it's not a move without risk. The tactic may fizzle out if his political opponents are not willing to play ball.
Meanwhile, if Farage is going to be fighting this by-election and saying "tell the establishment that all these enquiries are wrong", then presumably he will be willing to answer questions about the gifts from Harborne and Cottrell.
And thirdly, I think a very clearly a risk is that Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain will be regarding this as another opportunity to get some excellent coverage in a parliamentary by-election.
At the end of the day, Restore Britain is one of the threats to Reform's ability to actually retain the lead that they've had in the opinion polls now for well over a year.










