Taiwan: The Pacific Breaking Point

James Crabtree has spent nearly 15 years tracking politics in Asia as an author, journalist and analyst. In that time, one small island - separated from mainland China by a hundred miles of water - has remained the most dangerous point of contention in the world’s most important relationship. Now, he argues, something has shifted.

Two developments over the past couple of years have made an already precarious situation even more volatile - the return of President Trump and the boom in AI. Taiwan holds a monopoly on the production of the world’s most advanced semi-conductors. This creates an imperative for the West to defend it, a position referred to by analysts as “Silicon Shield”. Recently though, Trump has referred to the island as a “negotiating chip”, and a $14bn arms package has been put on hold ahead of meeting with Xi Jinping in September.

James hears from experts in Taipei, Beijing and Washington. From Pentagon insiders to tech entrepreneurs, spanning continents and party lines, he asks whether the world is moving towards conflict over this small island territory. Moving beyond the headlines, he tackles what Taiwan is actually thinking at this crucial moment and how we can begin to make sense of Beijing’s thinking when it comes to a purported amphibious invasion.

Crucially, he looks at how the ripples are likely to impact us all. Does Taiwan’s technology offer protection or a target? Who is likely to decide its fate? And what can this decision tell us about power on the global stage?

Presenter: James Crabtree
Producer: Jacob Dabb
Sound Design: Rowan Bishop

A 2 Degrees West production for BBC Radio 4