................................................................................ ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 12.6.94 ................................................................................ JOHN HUMPHRYS: Good afternoon. Labour needs a new leader, I'll be talking to one of the contenders. Some say the Tories need a new one too. I'll be talking to the chairman of the party. That's On the Record after the news read by Jennie Bond. NEWS HUMPHRYS: Imagine the weekend from hell for the Conservative Party - and this is probably it. Still trying to recover from the devastating blow of the by-elections which delivered some of their worst results this century and now waiting for the European election rseults with the polls telling them they won't be much better, they could even be worse. So what's to be done? I'll be talking to the man who's chairman of the Tory Party now, but isn't expected to be for very much longer - Sir Norman Fowler. ******************* HUMPHRYS: So there we are, Sir Norman Fowler, all your fault, you fought the wrong campaign. SIR NORMAN FOWLER: Well I think that's not remotely the case, and I think that the point you have to remember is that we...allied and and we were with the MEPs throughout the planning of this campaign and throughout the campaign itself. Quite interesting really, Christopher Prout was telling me on Friday that after..during the campaign he'd received no complaints from candidates, no complaints had come through to him about the handling of the campaign, and the fact is that most commentators in this country have said that it was a good campaign, it was a united campaign, and the lesson I would draw from it is this. Clearly we couldn't actually undo everything that had been done over the last eighteen months in terms of disunity. But I think that the lesson of it is, we showed a united campaign could be fought and I think one needs to do more of that over the next two or three years, not less. HUMPHRYS: So you weren't able to hold the party together for eighteen months, you've managed to hold them together for just these few weeks. That's not a great achievement is it? FOWLER: I think the campaign showed that we could fight and we put together a united campaign. What the opinion polls show quite clearly, and there's one today which shows it, is that over eighty per cent of the public regard us as disunited on the European issue, we've got to address that, it's commonsense we have got to address it, but the comfort that I take from that campaign was. First of all I don't...do not believe that John Major fought a sceptical campaign, I think that is just absurd, that is just a silly point. I mean the fact is that his position as far as the Social Chapter for example, he'd made it clear that we weren't going to sign up to everything that came from Brussels, that's not sceptical, the fact is that it was a positive campaign, his campaign was positive, he fought for the free enterprise single market all the things that Tories stand for, the real division was between us and the other parties, and I tell you the other thing which came over. You've just had one clip on there, the enormous enthusiasm that John Major got in his rallies, from party workers who rallied to him in those rallies. HUMPHRYS: But you've got problems haven't you, if it takes a campaign, an election campaign to get the party to stick together for only three weeks. I mean you've had eighteen months when you weren't able to hold the party together, and it takes an election campaign to achieve that for you. And then on what they think, some of your members think, was a Euro-sceptical basis. FOWLER: Well I don't think..I can't be bashed from all sides on this, doubtless I will.... HUMPHRYS: Don't worry about that, I thought you
perfectly well could be bashed from all sides, you are being bashed from all sides. FOWLER: Doubtless, I'll correct that, doubtless I will be bashed from all sides, and doubtless we all will. But what I would say on it is this, that I think it was a good campaign, we...I mean frankly we were the only people fighting it on the European issues, and I think that everyone who appeared on your programme beforehand, that snippet beforehand, would confirm that. It was only we who were actually settling out the European issues, whether it was the Social Chapter, or whether it was the veto and the rest. John Major, in using the campaigning techniques that he does so well, took that to the public, and I thought took the party with him. HUMPHRYS: So the operation was a success, pity that the patient died. FOWLER: Ha! ha! Well it's ...I come back to what I said, you're not going to actually correct everything that has gone wrong over a period on Europe in a matter of a two or three week campaign. What you can do, I mean let's look forward, we've got a general election, a general election does not need to come until the best part of three years, we've got a long way to go before that general election. Now I think that the Party would be very sensible to take the lesson from this, that more campaigning of the kind that we've been doing over the last month is substantially better than having whoever it may be, having debates in public in the Party. If I think that, I tell you that's actually what the Party in the country feel and they feel it very strongly. HUMPHRYS: But you're perfectly happy to concede then something that you denied in the past that the Tory Party has been badly split over these issues for the last eighteen months? FOWLER: Well I mean I can hardly deny the fact that if you look at a Gallup Poll it actually shows that eighty two per cent of the public think that we are divided on the European issue. HUMPHRYS: You've denied it often enough in the past and so have many other leaders in the Tory Party. FOWLER: I'm not sure that I have actually denied that that has been a public perception, the public perception is there. HUMPHRYS: More than a public perception, it's the reality is it not. FOWLER: What has happened is that we have had a debate on Europe which has divided the Parliamentary Party in particular, and we've had debates in public on that, what I am saying is that over the last month we avoided that, we avoided it almost entirely and I think that that was good, is showed what we could do and I think if we have any sense we will keep on that particular tack, and what I don't think is it's going to do anyone any good at all, is having kind of inquest after inquest and saying you know, that the campaign didn't do that and the campaign didn't do that, I mean I think that's absurd. HUMPHRYS: But, the implication from what we've just been hearing is that there isn't - in your words - a great deal of sense out there because, clearly, the Party is still divided. FOWLER: Yes, you have put together an interview with a few people. I don't think that is necessarily the view of the Conservative Party. HUMPHRYS: Well.. FOWLER: I tell you this, John. HUMPHRYS: You can't have it both ways. You were just telling me eighty-two per cent of the population think there is a profound split. FOWLER: No, sorry, I mean, on the way forward. As far as the way forward is concerned, the - I'm sure - that the Conservative Party in the country - up and down the land - what they want us to do is to come together and what they want us to do is to do what we did during this campaign: set out the differences between the Conservative Party and the Labour and the Liberals. We set that out very clearly, indeed, and that is the way to do it. HUMPHRYS: But, what you did was you came together by peddling a Euro-sceptic club. FOWLER: No. HUMPHRYS: Well, let me quote you. You heard them.
Never let me remind you. Peter Price: trying to hold everyone together in a broad church blunted the message. Margaret Daly: you were led by the Euro-sceptics and that's why we got into trouble. FOWLER: Well. Look, Peter was round my table during the campaign. Peter knows perfectly well the factors that went into this campaign and certainly it is not remotely the case that we set out a Euro-sceptic message. HUMPHRYS: But, why do your MPs think you did? Why did Margaret Daly think you did? A Euro-sceptic led by the Euro-sceptics, she said. FOWLER: No, no. But, I mean, it is simply not the case. It is simply not the case that the Prime Minister set out - I mean, he was at pains to set out clearly his belief in the European Community, his belief in our position there. But, if our belief in Europe is going to be judged by the fact that we agree with everything which comes from Brussels. I think that is simply an absurd judgment. That actually is not Margaret Daly or Peter Price, that is actually the issue that Mr Ashdown and the Labour Party have been putting against us. They've said: we're not real Europeans because we don't agree with everything. I agree we don't agree with everything but we took this country into the European Community and the issue now is what kind of Community we want and that is the issue. HUMPHRYS: We know what kind of Community Bill Cash wants and he was delighted with the approach you took during.....campaign...
But, he said, and I quote "We could have gone further. We've got to make sure now that we get it right." And you know what Bill Cash- I mean, Bill Cash would like to blow up the Channel Tunnel and sack the Commission. Slight exaggeration there, but you take the drift! FOWLER: I think that is a total exaggeration and I take- HUMPHRYS: But, do you take the drift? FOWLER: I mean I take what you're saying but, I think that the exaggeration of your point speaks for itself. I don't think Bill Cash actually does believe in the sort of thing that you set out. HUMPHRYS: Bill Cash is a Euro-sceptic and that is not beyond dispute. FOWLER: That is not beyond dispute that Bill Cash and the Government have been at conflict on, for example, the Maastricht debate. HUMPHRYS: And, he now thinks you're heading in the right direction. FOWLER: Well, he-I mean. What I think that John Major and the Government put together very skilfully was a campaign which brought the Party together on the issue of Europe and it isn't... It isn't a matter of just looking at the personalities. If you talk to the bulk of the Conservative Party. If you talk to the great majority of the Conservative Party, doubtless, you can find people on both extremes of this argument. You can in the Tory Party, you can in the Labour Party and God help us you can in the Liberal Democrat Party as well. But, if you talk to the vast majority of the Tory Party, you will find that the kind of campaign that John Major fought was exactly the one that they wanted. They want someone who actually stands up for British interest and that was what John Major did. With great skill, he negotiated at Maastricht. He got us the opt-out as far as the Social Chapter is concerned but, also, what we're committed to is the Single Market. What we're committed to is the kind of free enterprise deregulated community. That's the kind of Europe that we're fighting for. HUMPHRYS: It was certainlyt the kind of campaign that Bill Cash and his fellow Euro-sceptics wanted and your problem is... FOWLER: No, I don't- No, no! HUMPHRYS: Let me finish the question. FOWLER: But, it isn't right! HUMPHRYS: Once you pay the danegeld, it's very difficult to get rid of the Dane and Bill Cash wants more now because you've gone down his road and he wants you to keep going down his road. FOWLER: Well, I think, that you know we're in danger of actually having an argument on the two extremes in the... HUMPHRYS: Ah, but there are extremes within the Party and this is the point, isn't it? FOWLER: But, there are two-But, there are two extremes in every Party. Not just the Tory Party. In the Labour Party: what do you think Peter -Do you think Peter Shaw believes in all this stuff that the Labour Party's set out? HUMPHRYS: The Tory Party is profoundly divided. FOWLER: No, it's not profoundly divided. The bulk of the Tory Party stands, and this was the..I think what was shown in the campaign is that you were telling me - I mean you tell me what I was telling you - you were telling me only weeks before the campaign that the whole campaign was going to be a shambles.. HUMPHREYS: I don't recall saying anything of the sort. FOWLER: ..or interviewers like you and there was going to disputes all over the place, there weren't disputes all over the place. As far as I can remember there was only about one or two incidents in the whole campaign. HUMPHRYS: Right. So you managed to hold, well we'll concede this then, that you managed to hold the party together for three weeks, you've got to hold the party together for the next two and a half years now and you've got to do rather more than that, you've got to persuade people to vote for you and to return you at the next election. There's precious little sign at the moment that you've won their confidence isn't there? FOWLER: I think you're now onto the central point, I mean the position I think is this: that we have seen above all economic recovery, we've seen low inflation, low interest rates, growth in the economy. But what hasn't happened is that that hasn't translated itself to the well-being and the feelings of individuals themselves, that's not at all surprising given that we've had to take tax increases to deal with the PSBR.
It was necessary to deal with but obviously it has had an impact upon the public's own feeling. Over the next two or three years and I keep on..I underline this point, we have two or three years to recover from this, over the next two or three years the opportunity is there with the strength of the recovery I believe to come to a reduction of taxation not an increase in taxation and I think that.. HUMPHRYS: Is that a promise? FOWLER: No it's not, I mean I'm in no position to make promises. As you know I'm not a member of the government but if you want my assessment of what is going to take place over the two or three years or the opportunity that is going to take place over the next two or three years it is this: you have got a strong economy that has been fought for, we have had to take tough measures to do it, the tax increases were the tough measures, obviously we've paid a penalty for that and the recession obviously we paid a penalty for that. I think over the next two or three years the opportunity of the Chancellor of the Exchequer is much greater in terms of tax reductions. HUMPHRYS: So your advice - you say you're not in the government, but you are Chairman of the Tory Party - your advice as a very seasoned politician to John Major is "cut taxes or you're in real trouble next time around". FOWLER: I don't think I said.... HUMPHRYS: No, I'm asking you whether that is your advice? FOWLER: No, my advice is that the..or rather my judgement is that the opportunity is there and is going to be there over the next two or three years. We've taken a lot of punishment obviously and the public have over the last two years, they have taken it, I'm afraid for good reasons because we needed to deal with the PSBR, we needed to increase tax and we have dealt with that. And now we have got a fast growing economy, the fastest growing in Europe. The fact is now that over the next year, the year after that and indeed the year after that we'll be in a much stronger position; the punishment has been taken. I think that you will find now.. HUMPHRYS: It's finished now, the punishment's finished. FOWLER: No I'm not saying that but I think that the Chancellor will be in a much stronger position as we go to the..along towards..over the next two or three years. HUMPHRYS: So what you are saying - because look, you've had two years of this recovery now, much longer than that if you believe what Mr Major said during the election: vote for us on Thursday the recovery begins on Friday, but it hasn't - by your own admission - affected the mood of the voters, they're still against you and that's because of tax increases... FOWLER: But it has been a recovery, I mean people were.. HUMPHRYS: Let's not dispute that.. FOWLER: Well a few months people were even disputing that. The recovery has taken place, unemployment's coming down, all that is you know, good news as far as the economy is concerned. HUMPHRYS: Alright, well let us not dispute that, let's say it has been a recovery but people don't have that feel good factor as a result of it, and what you seem to be saying is that unless you can now deliver on your promises to cut taxes rather than to keep putting them up you're going to lose the next election because people won't trust you. FOWLER: My diagnosis is that obviously that although the recovery has taken place that has not translated itself to individual people. That must be, I think the case, given that taxation has had to be increased; it was necessary for taxation to be increase, no-one I think denies that that is the case. HUMPHRYS: I accept all that. FOWLER: The opportunity I believe - and I'm talking for myself - I believe, now raises itself over the next two three years that the burden of taxation, I don't know where, I don't know how or the timescale, all those are opportunities and decisions for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, but the opportunity I think is there. HUMPHRYS: But you're in trouble if it doesn't happen, if that opportunity isn't taken. FOWLER: Well I wouldn't say that because I think that the opportunity is there and I am sure that the Chancellor and the government will understand that. HUMPHRYS: Isn't the real problem that the people of Britain have actually lost faith in the confidence and the competence of the leadership of the Tory Party. You heard what David Nicholson had to say there, what the party is seeking is strong, clear and consistent leadership, the electors don't think we've got it now. FOWLER: No, and again I don't agree with that. I think that the position is as far as John Major's own leadership is concerned he won the 1992 election, he got a mandate.. HUMPHRYS: That was before he broke his promises on taxation. FOWLER: Well you say he broke his promises, I was with John Major.. HUMPHRYS: ..promises to cut taxes and then puts them up. FOWLER: Well I was with John Major throughout that 1992 campaign and what John Major said consistently everywhere was that his first requisite, his first priority was a strong economy, that actually he kept his word on that, he actually did..he has provided that and he has taken a lot of punishment as a result. But I tell you this, I think if every time we had been in difficulties in terms over..since 1979 and we then said "my golly we're in such difficulties we must change the leadership" we would have had a lot of changes of leadership during the 1980s. HUMPHRYS: This isn't difficulty, this is crisis isn't it. FOWLER: No it isn't crisis, we have had..I mean the by-election results were not good and we've been... HUMPHRYS: They were disastrous. FOWLER No, they were not good obviously and we've been through that before... HUMPHRYS: "Ghastly" in the words of Cecil Parkinson this morning and "this is more than just a blip" he said. FOWLER: Well I didn't see or hear Cecil Parkinson but what I do say and I would imagine as he is a former Chairman of the Conservative Party would agree with this, is that first we can recover from this and secondly it would be a great mistake for you or anybody else to write us off at this stage. I warn you against writing the Tory Party off, we can recover, we will recover and we will recover under John Major's leadership. HUMPHRYS: Sir Norman Fowler, thank you very much. FOWLER: Thank you. ...oooOooo...