................................................................................ ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 6.6.93 ................................................................................ JONATHAN DIMBLEBY: Good afternoon and welcome to On the Record. A couple of days ago John Major sought to take arms against a sea of troubles and by opposing end them. But the reaction to his "I'm here and I'm here to stay speech" suggests that he's still in deep trouble. I'll be asking his friend and colleague
the new Secretary of State for the Environment, John Gummer whether the Prime Minister can ever dig himself of the hole in which he now finds himself. His predicament is partly caused by the civil war in his own Party over Europe. We will be reporting from that front line and unearthing evidence which suggests that the Tory combatants are destined to be at each other's throats long after the ink has dried on the Maastricht Treaty. ************* The polls suggest that he is extremely unpopular and that he will lose the Christchurch by-election as well as Newbury. Editorials in once wholly loyal newspapers are scathing. Backbench Tories allow themselves to be quoted to the effect that the skids are under him. In response his colleagues have been rallying to the colours, assuring us that when the Prime Minister says "I'm here and I'm staying" he means it. The new Secretary of State for the Environment, John Gummer is at home in his constituency. Secretary of State, it comes to something does it not when a Prime Minister has to use a speech to the Party faithful to tell the rest of us that he's got the job and still wants it. JOHN GUMMER: Well, I would have thought it a rather odd view of that speech. It was a great speech which put forward the very clear way through this period as we come out of recession. It's a speech that emphasised the need to fight crime, particularly in our cities and the utter importance of doing something about our education system. I thought it was a speech which was the right speech for the right occasion. Perhaps, other people got it wrong beforehand. DIMBLEBY: But, then, why the need to say: I've got the job and I'm still here and I intend to stay here? GUMMER: Well, a large number of your colleagues in the media have been suggesting otherwise. And, it was perfectly right to tell them exactly what the situation was. DIMBLEBY: Well, you say our colleagues in the media. What about the results of the Newbury by-election, the Local Elections, the Polls - does it not suggest that there is serious trouble? GUMMER: Well, if you look around the whole of Europe, you can't find anybody who's in Government, or in the United States, who isn't finding it pretty difficult to get their nations through what has been a very much longer lasting and deeper recession than anyone expected. So, we, who are ahead of the rest, still have those difficulties and it will go on being difficult, as we take the tough decisions to make sure that, in the end, we, in Britain, prosper and we win through. DIMBLEBY: It's a measure, surely, of the failure of that speech to get the message home - that he's going to stay - when a Sunday Times poll, today, of Party Constituency Chairmen, has a third of them saying: he's got to go? GUMMER: Well, it has seventeen out of six hundred and fifty saying something which is other than totally complimentary. I don't think that's much of a poll. I think, it's much an article based on practically no research at all. I don't think that's very sensible, honestly! DIMBLEBY: A third - a third of the sample. Do you dismiss those voices utterly? Those voices don't count? GUMMER: No, I don't dismiss anybody. The fact is we've gone through a very difficult time and the economy has suffered because of the recession and many people have suffered with it in very serious ways. I'm not dismissing anyone but what I hear from my grassroots talking, for example, this week to councillors - good councillors who lost their seats -
and those who sit on County and District Councils - what they said to me, unanimously, was that it's time for the Party to pull together, to stand together and to stop listening to those few mavericks who try to tear us apart DIMBLEBY: You say 'few mavericks'. What do you make of - let me just put one or two of these quotes to you - backbenchers saying: Major's hanging on by a thread and others saying: he's floudering. That's the view on the Left, Right and Centre of the Party. Lord Tebbit acknowledging that his position is uncertain. A Chairman of a constituency Party saying: the Party is in shambles. Another saying: he must go by next spring, at the latest. Is this just odd maverick voices? GUMMER: Well, I'm awfully interested that you've only got one quote who will put their name to it. So, I'm not terribly keen on the anonymous comments. There are a lot of people who must get together and fight our way through a difficult time. DIMBLEBY: But it does- GUMMER: That is how we have to do it and it is Party unity that matters and we shall do it and John Major, who's a man of great determination, who won a General Election during which you all told him he couldn't do it. Who has got almost through the Maastricht Bill, which is crucial to Britain's and who is there with an economic policy which will bring us out of the recession more effectively than others. That man is going to take us through and I'm not going to take anonymous voices and the only one with a name to it who is known to have very severe reservations on Maastricht. DIMBLEBY: But it might be, then, that he shouldn't be letting what he describes gossip dressed up as news get under his skin so much if it is just gossip and not reality? GUMMER: Well, I haven't noticed it getting under his skin, either personally or publicly. That speech- DIMBLEBY: He said it makes him tired and weary. GUMMER: Well, that speech yesterday was quite clearly a speech of a leader, the really strong speech of someone who was there, who was intended to continue to be there and who had the policies which would bring us into the kind of economic situation which will improve people's living standards and enable us to do so much more for the vulnerable. That's the kind of man we want and he's putting that case over extraordinarily well. DIMBLEBY: Isn't- But, Mr Gummer, you say he's putting it over extraordinarily well. He's the most unpopular Prime Minister for as long as anyone can remember and there is the widespread impression, is there not, that given the background of the problems that Britain faces, decent - as he is widely regarded to be - he is, simply, not up to the job? That's what people are saying. GUMMER: Well, I have not heard that of anyone who works with him. I have to say, sitting round that Cabinet table you see a man entirely in charge of what is a very difficult situation and which, after all, has brought down the Government in France, undermined Clinton, who won an Election against that background, against the previous Government; which has got the Spanish Government in major difficulties and the German Government facing one of the most difficult times of all. Yet, we, have inflation which is lower than Germany, inflation that's down to the level that it hasn't been since the Beatles sang "Hard Day's Night", as Michael Portillo said the other day. We've got a country which is poised to move out of the recession faster than others and which is fed by the OECD and other expert commentators, will have the fastest rate of growth in Europe next year. So, that's the thing that John Major has given to us and he will lead us through. And, a lot of this talking is because people don't yet feel it and I understand that, I'm concerned about it but as they feel the effect of the improvements then they, too, will see that not only is he very competent, indeed, but he has a vision of the future which we very much need. DIMBLEBY: But why the people suggest that he is not competent and, you say, people round him say that he is. But I have to tell you that view of competence extends, as you will have widely read to the Cabinet, as a whole - which is regarded as lacklustre and weak - the reason is - amongst other things - memories of the ERM debacle, the u-turn over the pits, the fiasco over school testing. This is- this is incompetence - u-turns on a grand scale. GUMMER: Well, that's a very curious list of things, isn't it? The ERM which brought to us the low inflation rate which alone enabled us to cut interest rates, which because we were part of it began the movement out of the recession, the coping with a major international change. Dealing with that effectively is a mark not of incompetence but a very considerable competence. DIMBLEBY: And, leaving it as well - and leaving it as well. GUMMER: Well, with great respect, if you look round Europe, the mark of competence is when you decide that this change has to take place because of international activity. DIMBLEBY: You mean it's forced on you. When it's forced on you beyond your control! GUMMER: Well, with great respect, it's very odd that the commentators like yourself are very good with hindsight, telling everyone how to deal with these things. Let me tell you that we are now in a better position because we were in the ERM and because we removed ourselves from it at the right time and didn't leave ourselves within it, as some other countries have done. We are now in a much better position as the OECD and the independent commentators suggest, to produce the best result as a movement out of the recession of any country. But nobody yet feels that. They see the figures, the hear the gurus, they hear people commentating but in the end it's what happens to their bank balances and how secure they are in their job. And for some time- it'll be some time before that is felt, and in the meantime we have to stand united as a Government and fight our way through as we've done in the past, in order that people will see that his competence and his leadership stands supreme. DIMBLEBY: But, Secretary of State-You see, you talk about standing united as a Government. Your problem is - his problem is -
he's so busy trying to glue the Party together that he can issue no clarion call, no vision, that people can identify because he's fearful that if he does so the mutiny goes even wider in the ranks. GUMMER: Well, I don't think you've read anything that he's spoken or said for a very long time then. He has not concentrated on those matters at all. What he has said clearly is: first, we must live within our means, we must get out of this recession, and, then, with the various (phon) strength that comes from that we have very clear policies, not least to improve our education system, to deal with the crime on our streets, to make Britain the kind of country where anyone can reach to the top. The sort of nation where the barriers of class and money and background no longer matter. That's the kind of mission that we've got. DIMBLEBY: But then why are people like you- But then, John Gummer, why are people like you and Ian Laing and Norman Fowler having to come out and say we've got to have Party unity, close ranks behind the Prime Minister? What's the need for that then, if you're all so together? GUMMER: Well, there are two reasons for it. The first is that we have gone through the whole discussion on Maastricht which has a very large majority in the House of Commons, but has a minority who are against it both in the Conservative and the Labour Party. When you're carrying that through as a Government with a very small majority overall, then there's bound to be tensions because Maastricht is a matter of conscience for very many people. I understand that - we are now almost through that. The other reason is simply this: if you've been in power for a long time and got rather used to having a rather larger majority, the press do - and I don't blame them at all - find that the discussions of disagreement and suchlike is much more interesting than the discussions of agreement. So, I don't blame anybody for that, I merely say that in- with the background of disappointing economic performance of the whole of the world - the kind of global problem we're going to have to face again and again in the future - that kind of background makes it more difficult to hold people together. But it's increasingly changing. DIMBLEBY: Well, you say it's increasingly changing but if Edward Leigh, the former Junior Minister, is anyone to go by, it's not changing at all. He's urging the Right to stand up and fight to rescue the soul of the Party. GUMMER: Well, I think there are two things about that. One is I can quite understand when somebody's recently left the Government. He's unhappy about it and I am pleased to hear yesterday he said some rather different things and I think that's good. The fact is the Right and the Left are absolutely united on the major issues and particularly on getting on top of our economic problems and not spending money that we don't have. There's no need for anybody to fight for the soul of anything for this Government represents very effectively the whole, the whole range of people in the Party. None of us could be called wet, for example, on public expenditure. We do believe that we can't spend money we haven't got and we're prepared to take the tough decisions which are necessary for that. DIMBLEBY: You say you're prepared to take the tough decisions but in respect of unity you have already got the two sides at war with each other on this. There must not be tax increases, from the Right; there must not be huge spending cuts without tax increases, from the Left of the Party. GUMMER: Well, I think you've seen exactly the clarion call from the Prime Minister in his speech on Friday, Saturday, as well as elsewhere. You've heard this speech very clearly several times, and that is that the first priority if you're spending too much is to spend less. You cannot go on borrowing once you begin to move out of recession. Perfectly acceptable during the period while the recession is at its height but you've got to adjust things thereafter. That is the priority and that's what this Government will do and that's why we've looked right across the board. DIMBLEBY: That may well be true that he believes that that's the case, but if he had managed to stamp his authority on the Party over the last two-and-a-half years you wouldn't have both sides at war with each other. GUMMER: Look, I think this is a very curious discussion because if you went to any country in Europe faced- or in America - faced with the problems of the recession, of course there are those who long for a quick answer - an easier and more simple answer. The fact is we have to hold together in order to do the only thing the longer-term answer, and this Government is going to stand by that. And no amount of chipping away by anonymous quotes and commentators' references is going to make any difference to that. This Government is going to win its way through. John Major is going to lead it and we're leading it not in a way which will take easy answers. Because, you know, people have said: low in the polls, bad ratings for the Prime Minister, and the rest of it. How on earth can you look forward to victories in the future? The one way to make sure that we lose in the future is if we don't take the right decisions now and if we are panicked or pushed by the kind of comments you're making or quoting. DIMBLEBY: Well don't allow yourself, please, to be panicked by what I say, Secretary of State. But let me suggest to you that if you aren't capable- if he is not capable of restoring public confidence in his leadership, public confidence in the Government, then your colleagues - not you personally as a good friend - but your colleagues will dump him just as fast as they dumped Margaret Thatcher, won't they? GUMMER: Well I'm happy to say that that as a definition of my colleagues or the Tory Party is very, very far removed. You know perfectly well that this is a difficult time for the Government. We therefore expect to have a situation in which there are those that are unhappy. But together we are going to win through and there isn't a question or an argument about that, and for that reason I wish we'd get on to the practicalities of policies and be prepared to discuss with the public over a programme like this some of those issues which really do matter. For example, it's no good saying in generalities that we must do something about our education system, you've actually got to raise the standards because we are letting down a very high proportion of our children and also a very high proportion of our teachers. It's no good saying in generalities that we've got to do something about crime, we've actually got to get a new attitude towards that throughout the nation in the home, in the school and in the judicial system as well. It's no good talking about the environment unless you actually go forward with policies of the kind that I'm preparing now so that we can make the best out of this movement from the recession. That's what we've got to do - be positive. DIMBLEBY: Secretary of State, as a member of a Cabinet and a Party which is entirely without ruthlessness in any matter, thank you. ....oooOOOooo...