................................................................................ ON THE RECORD PADDY ASHDOWN INTERVIEW ONE RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 2.5.93 ................................................................................ JONATHAN DIMBLEBY: In the House of Commons last Thursday, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats was urging military action against the Bosnian Serbs and saying in effect that their signature on a piece of paper meant very little - that they'd never stick, he said, to what they sign up for. Paddy Ashdown, is that still your view? PADDY ASHDOWN, MP: Yes, it is. I mean I think this is tremendous news. I think there are three ingredients for this success. The first is David Owen and Cy Vance's considerable skill in separating Milosevic from Karadzic. Quite clearly, Karadzic has had his arm wound very painfully up his back. The second is that there is now in place a credible threat from military action which there has never been before and, in the absence of any credible threat, the Serbs went on believing - as now I think they cannot - that they can gain more from aggression on the ground than they'd gain round the peace table. And the third, frankly, is that the Serbs now hold all the territory they want. They've gained everything they need to gain. Indeed, they may well hold more than they're entitled to, so this is the moment to sue for a peace which gives them the fruits of their aggression. It's on that last question, incidentally, that I think this whole question of whether this peace will survive - as I very much hope it will - will rest. DIMBLEBY: Do you believe in the meantime, as Jack Cunningham was saying, that - and contraire David Owen - that the military pressure has to be kept up, that the military option has to remain live? ASHDOWN: Yes. I think all options have to remain live and all points of pressure, diplomatic, sanctions, and military - it's that combination of pressures from which the military was absent until now which has enabled all previous peace chances to fail. Look, this peace now, this Vance/Owen plan, very skilfully negotiated by David Owen and Cy Vance, depends on three things. It depends on ratification by the so-called Bosnian Serb Parliament; it depends on an understanding by the Serbs that they have to obey this, and that depends on the military Commanders on the ground now following Karadzic; and, thirdly, it depends on the Serbs giving up territory they've conquered. My view is that the first of those probably will happen, the second - whether the Commanders on the ground obey the dictates of Mr. Karadzic, well, I'll believe that when I see it - and the third is the sixty-four thousand dollar question. DIMBLEBY: And how much time do you give it before you believe the UN has to say "This is just like it's been before - we do have to consider now the Clinton proposals"? ASHDOWN: Oh, I think Jonathan, you know that very soon indeed, if Sarajevo goes on being bombarded - and it had one of its worst days ever yesterday - if the assaults and attacks on the ground continue, then we will know perfectly well that Karadzic has not got control over his military forces on the ground and, in those circumstances, we will have to continue to consider very seriously the use of force. No doubt whatsoever that it's the absence of a credible military threat up until now which has scuppered all previous peace plans and the one thing we must not do is abandon that at this stage. DIMBLEBY: Now, I want to come back to you on that later in the programme as well, but just on the question of if the ceasefire takes hold, how swiftly - given that you were not frightened to send in troops on the ground - how swiftly would you have UN troops in there to police that ceasefire and to stop it disintegrating? ASHDOWN: Well, I think there is a question that has to be left with Commanders on the ground. I agree with Jack Cunningham and others that the right time to increase our troop levels, FOR THAT PURPOSE, that's the peace-keeping purposes, ought to be when a proper ceasefire is established and is holding. After all, our troops will not be in a predominantly warlike disposition under those circumstances. If, on the other hand, the ceasefire breaks and the agreement does not hold, then I think we have to move to the military option rather quicker. DIMBLEBY: Mr. Ashdown, thank you for the moment. ................................................................................ ON THE RECORD PADDY ASHDOWN INTERVIEW TWO RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 2.5.93 ................................................................................ JONATHAN DIMBLEBY: Mr Ashdown, you've heard Jack Cunningham, before that you also heard Lord Owen saying, please, effectively, pipe down on the military front, you're behind the curve if you still want to talk about military action. PADDY ASHDOWN MP: Yes, I agree, I think David Owen... I don't... Jonathan, if I may suggest it to you gently, I think you're making divisions where none exist. David Owen was quite clear and rightly so, that we ought to keep open the military option, that we ought to discuss it but this is a time for, I think he said a rather more positive approach and I agree with that. We have to, despite all our miserable experiences in the past when word has been broken and peace agreements have been smashed almost by the hour, we have to say this is the best chance for peace we've got. It's one which frankly through the skill of David Owen and Cyrus Vance, many of us didn't believe we'd have. He's resuscitated that, it's up to us to make sure that we now get behind it. And you might say that it's a moment to speak a little less... a little more softly but continuing to carry the big stick. DIMBLEBY: Have the big stick in reserve not waving it? ASHDOWN: Exactly so. But I mean it's perfectly reasonably that we should continue to say if then, if it breaks down then those are the options we should be following. I've never been much of enthusiast for indiscriminate bombing of supply lines, I've never thought that would work having travelled the area myself behind the Serb lines a week in September. I've always thought... September last year, I've always thought that was rather more symbolic than effective. I've been much more in favour of the safe havens approach, if necessary, using air power to protect UN troops who are protecting themselves - the Muslims. And I was particularly fascinated and I think agree wholeheartedly with Trevor Taylor's suggestion that perhaps in the interim before you have a peace established and move in these substantial number of troops that people are talking about, it may well be appropriate to move to some of those flashpoints and to do what the Canadians are currently doing in Srebrenica and what is being done in Bihac, to set up even with your existing troops, relatively small numbers required - a hundred and fifty Canadians in Srebrenica - some kind of a safe haven policy that will stabilise the line as early as possible. DIMBLEBY: Because you were saying in the Commons on Thursday that you were ready even if the conflict was continuing to send troops in in some form to protect safe havens. Just if I can, just to get it clear. Would you now therefore be in favour given the optimism that we all hope, anyone hopes is there, would you be in favour of deploying UN troops straight away in order police or protect those havens? ASHDOWN: But Jonathan that's already happening, so you're only reinforcing what the soldiers are actually doing on the ground. The Canadians are in Srebrenica, only a hundred and fifty of them but they've saved the town from further Serbian assault. The UN commander in Bihac said that it's... saw his job now as protecting the area. The UN has declared not negotiated, declared, not waiting for a ceasefire, they've already done it, protected areas in Gorazde and Zepa and I think it's perfectly reasonable for the politicians to get behind the military. It's quite clear that the military on the ground have got pretty impatient waiting for the politicians to make up their mind. They believe, rightly in my view, that the current mandate allows that action and I see no reason why in this more hopeful climate we could not move ahead with that. It is an entirely defensive operation, it's not one that in any way launches offensives on the Serbs. It merely says we are now extending our mandate to establish safe havens as is already being done, we don't intend to attack you but we will, of course, defend ourselves. So I think we should reinforce that action and it would help to first of all test the climate of opinion on the ground and secondly carry forward the momentum David Owen has achieved. DIMBLEBY: Am I right to conclude that you are a very much more optimistic man than you were two or three days ago? ASHDOWN: Oh look, this is such a miserable long drawn out affair that the smallest chink of light has to be a subject for some joy. I remain very doubtful whether or not this will carry through. I recall the Vance plan for Croatia which required the Serbians to relinquish which, as you know, they've never relinquished, they signed up to it, the deadlines have passed. But look, for today, for this moment, there's little enough hope in this miserable black catalogue of litany, of disaster and failure on the part of the West. Here is a success. I think it's incumbent on all of us to get behind it and give it the best chance of succeeding and I hope it will. DIMBLEBY: Mr Ashdown, thank you very much. ...oooOooo...