................................................................................ ON THE RECORD JOHN ALDERDICE INTV RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE 17.1.93 ................................................................................ JONATHAN DIMBLEBY: Dr Alderdice, you talk about reaching the edge of the abyss what precisely are you talking about? JOHN ALDERDICE: Well when the talks between the four Northern Ireland parties and the British and Irish Government's broke down last year it wasn't because they ran out of time it was because there wasn't enough flexibility to reach an honourable compromise and that was somewhat of a morale boost to the IRA, who are very worried about the possibility of political settlement, but it also encouraged Loyalist paramilitaries to believe the Democratic politics wasn't going to deliver in their eyes and therefore, they are prepared, I believe well equipped and organised unfortunately, to embark on a thoroughly unpleasant and very wicked campaign against Catholics and others. DIMBLEBY: You mean more than what we know already of sectarian killings, you are talking about more than that? ALDERDICE: Yes I am because I think that there is clear evidence that they are well organised, well structured, well equipped and indeed, I warned last year privately the Irish Government to prepare themselves for attacks on the Republic of Ireland. DIMBLEBY: Are you saying that you really believe that they are going to be using more powerful weapons than they've used now, that they are going to be bombing and doing that in the South? ALDERDICE: Yes I think that's a very real
risk and, of course, we've already seen that the ferocity of sectarian attacks against Catholics, which is a particuarly odious and futile approach to this whole wretched ..whole wretched events...it's really becoming quite serious and I'm not at all sure the people in London and Dublin quite realise that. DIMBLEBY: Well, certainly your tone is very different from that of the Secretary of State who has made cautiously optimistic noises, he's been saying to the IRA lay down the weapons, demonstrate beyond per adventure that violence is dead and join the process which could bring about a peaceful solution. ALDERDICE: There is not a shred of evidence at all that that's what's going to happen and unfortunately, what does seem to have happened is that what we warned the Unionists that if they didn't move long ago to quickly remove alienation of Nationalists, they would become more extreme in their demands, that's clear from the talks that the SDLP no longer are interested in power sharing or even the Anglo-Irish Agreement as presently structured, the British Government by taking a neutral position is actually moving Nationalists to a more extreme position and there is no evidence at all that the IRA is prepared to lay down its arms, on the contrary, it seems much more likely to embark on increased attacks on economic targets in Britain. DIMBLEBY: You also say in this letter that we referred to in the film, you seem to be saying that Britain has a hidden agenda to pull the troops out of Northern Ireland, what makes you say that, that's an extraordinary charge to make is it not? ALDERDICE: Well I don't think it is extraordinary at all, I mean, obviously the Labour Party has made quite clear for a long time that it would like to see Northern Ireland leave the United Kingdom through the front door, all I am saying is it seems to me that the Tory Party is now seeing the same kind of direction over perhaps a longer timescale and through the back door, but essentially, Sir Patrick Mayhew may have a different timescale in view, but that he sees his job as relatively similar to that of his colleague Chris Patten in Hong Kong. It won't be done in an open way, but it seems to me that the lack of commitment that there is can only be judged in that fashion. DIMBLEBY: What evidence do you have for that? ALDERDICE: Well it's my experience of the British government during the recent talks, the way they responded after the talks and very particularly the tone of the Secretary of State's comments in his recent Colraine (phon) speech. It clearly indicated that the British Government was in a position of neutrality as far as the Union of Northern Ireland with Great Britain is concerned and that the... DIMBLEBY: But the classical position of the British Government is that it is up to the people of Northern Ireland to decide were there a majority for the Republic, so be it, so long as the majority for the Union remains, that's the situation which will be enforced and supported? ALDERDICE: Yes indeed, but any Nationalist in Northern Ireland or indeed, in the island of Ireland who takes a less Nationalist position than the British Government is immediately dead in the water, so when the British Government takes a neutral position, it automatically forces the SDLP and others to take a position which says we won't accept Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom, we want joint sovereignty at least and that probably is a transition of arrangements. DIMBLEBY: Are you in effect saying that you think by saying what he says to the IRA, stop the fighting and then demonstrate that you can join a political process he is actually aiding and abetting the IRA? ALDERDICE: No, I'm not saying something of that kind, but I am saying that the kind of warnings that we've been making to Unionists over the years, that if the issue is not addressed quickly and very directly, that we would find a situation where Nationalists became more extreme with the British Government, indeed, people throughout the rest of the United Kingdom would tire of the situation and tragically, of course, we also find a Dublin Government that whilst it speaks about generosity, when people went to Dublin was not at all generous, it all tends to suggest that political progress is in considerable difficulties and that leaves uncertainty, instability and a likelihood of an increase by the men of violence in their tactics. DIMBLEBY: Dr. Alderdice, thank you very much for talking to me. ALDERDICE: Thank you.