David Deans
BBC Wales politics reporter

A Labour source has told me that the party's vote has "completely collapsed" in Blaenau Gwent Caerfilli Rhymni.

It is one of the three seats that made a turnout calculation from their ballots overnight - 47.7% in the constituency have voted.

The source said there was still a chance Labour could get a seat in the constituency, and thought it might be tight between Reform and Plaid, with Reform doing better at the Blaenau Gwent end, and Plaid performing better in Caerphilly.

Meleri Williams
BBC Wales reporter

It’s getting busy at the Sir Gaerfyrddin count in Llanelli.

Candidates have started to gather in the sports hall of Pentre Awel Leisure Centre, wearing their party rosettes, and eagerly waiting for the votes to be verified within the next few minutes.

We could get a real mixed bag here.

This new super constituency encompasses the whole of Carmarthenshire, stretching between towns like Llanelli, Carmarthen, Llandovery and Ammanford, and vast rural areas.

Carmarthen is considered a Plaid Cymru heartland, so this constituency is crucial for the party.

But now that Llanelli is included in the same constituency, it may not be such an easy target for Plaid.

Labour has dominated in that area for decades, but in the 2024 General Election, Reform saw its best result across Wales in Llanelli.

With a new, more proportional voting system, Reform will be looking to challenge the Plaid and Labour dominance in the area.

The result declaration could be one of the last of all the constituencies.

Snacks and coffee are at the ready!

Image source, Getty Images

Constituencies have started publishing details of voter turnout, with some areas showing an increase.

Things are slightly different this year, with the 16 areas where people are voting newly-created for this election.

For example, there was a turnout of 47.7% in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

In 2021, 44.31% of the electorate voted in Caerffili and 40.31% in Blaenau Gwent.

In Casnewydd Islwyn there was a 47.8% turnout.

In the last election, it was 42.2% in the old Islwyn constituency and 43% in Newport West.

The Greens have never won a seat in Cardiff Bay before and success would be getting their first, according to a candidate.

“We’re very encouraged by the polling, and seeing the vote share that we’re getting across England [in local elections there] just really demonstrates that," Ian Chandler told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

"As Zack Polanski said when he took over as leader, we’re here to replace Labour and it looks like that’s what we’re doing in many parts of the country."

Asked if one Senedd seat would be disappointing, the Sir Fynwy Torfaen candidate added: "If you had given us that six months ago we would have bitten your hand off."

In the 27 year history of devolution in Wales, those that have served as first minister, or prif weinidog, make a relatively small and elite group of Labour politicians.

At the dawn of politics in Cardiff Bay, Alun Michael was the first person to take on the role of Wales' leader in May 1999 – but didn’t last a year, resigning in February 2000.

There then followed two men who would steer Wales for nine years each – Rhodri Morgan from 2000 to 2009, then Carwyn Jones between 2009 and 2018.

Mark Drakeford was in charge from 2018 to 2024, before Vaughan Gething took on the role in March of that year.

But his time wasn’t long, and by August of that year Eluned Morgan was in charge.

We will soon know the identity of Wales’ first minister for the next four years – will Morgan extend her tenure, or will the nation get its seventh first minister?

Image source, Getty Images

“I think we’re going to do exceptionally well, the feedback on the doorstep has been extremely positive," a Reform UK candidate told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

“I think it is evident that Labour will collapse in Wales today. I think it is almost a referendum not only on Eluned Morgan but also on Keir Starmer.”

Francesca O’Brien, Reform UK's lead candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, added it's a “very exciting” day and she is “very hopeful” that her party will emerge with the majority of votes.

Image source, PA Media/Ben Birchall

Labour has put itself in a position where it is "no longer seen as the party of the working people", believes Carwyn Jones.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live's overnight election coverage, the former first minister said: "We need to be far more radical, we need to be far more confident in the message that we're getting across.

"We've put ourselves in a position where we're no longer seen as the party of the working people."

Jones, who was Labour first minister from 2009 to 2018, added: "It's quite clear that a chunk of working class voters are not with us at the moment."

Asked on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast early on Friday whether he backed calls for Sir Keir Starmer to stand down, he said: "I would caution people against thinking that simply changing a leader in London is the panacea, is the be-all and end-all.

"I don't think it's simply a question of 'if Keir Starmer goes everything willl be fine'. It's not that easy."

He added, however, that the message had to be more optimistic in Westminster and that a sense of direction was missing at the moment.

When Wales last went to the polls to elect Senedd members in 2021, Labour was clearly the most popular party on constituency vote, with the Conservatives second.

Reform UK, Plaid Cymru and the Greens are all confident of increasing their vote share this time.

Tomos Morgan
Wales correspondent

It's a cold start to the day here in Cardiff Bay.

The water's still at the moment but it could be the calm before the storm.

Former First Minister Carwyn Jones has been talking to the BBC overnight, saying Labour's no longer seen as the party for working people.

Welsh Labour sources in Cardiff are already blaming the party in London and in particular the prime minister whereas Welsh Labour MPs at the moment are still standing by Sir Keir - a divide which could widen when the results start coming in.

Bangor Conwy Môn, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd - these may sound like combinations of familiar place names.

That is because they are.

These are the 16 new constituencies, from which 96 Senedd members will be selected after counting concludes later today.

Each constituency will be represented by six MSs as the total number of politicians in Cardiff Bay increases from 60 to 96.

The first-past-the-post voting system has also be scrapped with all MSs being elected via a proportional system known as D'Hondt.

The method uses a mathematical formula to distribute seats based on the proportion of votes won by each party.

In previous elections, voters would have have two votes. In 2026, they have been given the choice to pick a party, but not to support a specific candidate.

Image source, Getty Images

Former Welsh government minister Mick Antoniw said if the results were "as bad as predicted" then UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as prime minister.

He went on to describe the election as the most difficult for the party "in living memory".

To add further pressure, First Minister Eluned Morgan's chances of gaining a seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency is thought to be under threat, with sources speculating the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd.

Labour is expected to lose the Senedd election, multiple party sources have told the BBC, ending its 27-year-long rule in Wales.

Both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are confident of replacing them as the biggest party, and had pitched the election as a two-horse race.

Plaid MP Ben Lake told BBC Newsnight on Thursday that he thinks his party will have a "very good result".

Asked if he thought Plaid had done enough to get the result over the line, he said: "I think so. It's going to be a very close election."

No party is likely to reach a majority of 49 of the 96 Senedd seats under Wales' new proportional voting system, although Reform's Welsh leader Dan Thomas said on Tuesday that he thought it was possible for his party to achieve it.

Meanwhile the Welsh Lib Dems will hope to return a larger group than in 2021, when the party only saw its leader Jane Dodds elected.

The Greens are hoping to enter the Welsh political scene seriously for the first time and pick up their first Senedd seats.

Adam Hale
Wales political producer

Yesterday people from across Wales took to the polls to decide who will govern the country for the next four years.

Labour has been in power since 1999 and had won every UK election here for more than a century - but after polls closed last night multiple party sources told the BBC they believed it had finally lost.

Whether that's true, and if so who will replace them as the largest party in Wales, will become clear in the hours to come. Polling has suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are battling it out for top spot.

The votes cast by the Welsh public on Thursday will elect 96 members to represent 16 brand new constituencies in the Senedd, or Welsh Parliament.

Counting will begin from 09:00 BST this morning, with the first set of results expected around lunchtime.

We're hoping to have a good idea about who the biggest party will be by early evening.

But with some experts predicting a higher number of recounts compared to past elections, when exactly Wales' results will be done and dusted remains to be seen.

Image source, Getty Images

It's the morning of a Senedd election... but not like one we have ever known before.

For a start, around about now, most of the votes would usually have been counted, and bleary-eyed reporters would be delivering news of the winners after being up all night monitoring results.

But this time, most are (relatively) well rested and primed for a busy day, with counting due to get under way later this morning.

What they will be reporting on will also be different as voters prepare for a "once in a century change".

For past elections, Wales has elected 60 members to the Senedd - 40 representing constituencies and 20 regional politicians.

Today, there will be 96 people chosen from 16 new constituencies, with the party that gets the most seats then able to start looking to form a government.

It’s going to be a busy day.