Preparing Somalia for El Niño season

As Somalia approaches the Deyr rainy season (short rains) beginning in September, anticipation is building around the potential impacts of El Niño. For many communities, the phenomenon brings back memories of severe flooding, displacement, disease outbreaks, and disrupted livelihoods.

Yet forecasts of an El Niño event should not only be viewed as warnings of what could go wrong. They should also be seen as an opportunity to prepare, act early, and reduce risks before they become disasters.

The difference between a crisis and a manageable emergency often lies in how effectively communities, institutions, and humanitarian agencies use early warning information. Somalia's experience with El Niño demonstrates both the destructive power of extreme weather and the importance of preparedness.

The 1997-1998 El Niño remains one of the most devastating climate events in Somalia's recent history. Heavy rains and flooding affected large parts of the country, particularly areas along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Hundreds of people lost their lives, infrastructure was damaged, crops were destroyed, and an estimated one million people were affected. Assessments by FAO, WHO, and UNICEF found widespread flooding of agricultural land, disruptions to transport and education services, and increased risks of cholera and other water-borne diseases.

According to OCHA, the 2023 El Niño floods affected approximately 2.5 million people, displaced more than 1.2 million, and resulted in over 100 deaths across Somalia (OCHA Somalia, 2024).

Large areas of farmland were submerged, roads became impassable, schools closed, and outbreaks of water-borne diseases increased significantly.

These impacts illustrate a critical reality: extreme weather shocks do not occur in isolation. Their effects are often amplified by existing vulnerabilities, including poverty, displacement, food insecurity, and limited infrastructure.

Today, Somalia has stronger forecasting and early warning systems than in previous decades. Seasonal outlooks, river monitoring, and climate information services provide valuable opportunities for early action. When forecasts indicate above-average rainfall associated with El Niño, the focus should immediately shift from prediction to preparedness.

For pastoralists, this may mean moving livestock away from flood-prone grazing areas. For farmers, it could involve adjusting planting schedules, protecting seed reserves, and preparing drainage systems. Local authorities can identify vulnerable locations, strengthen emergency plans, inspect infrastructure, and coordinate evacuation measures where necessary.

Not all disasters can be prevented. But preparedness measures taken weeks in advance can often save lives, protect livelihoods, and significantly reduce humanitarian costs.

Access to reliable information is one of the most effective forms of disaster preparedness.

In Somalia, radio continues to be among the most trusted and accessible sources of information, especially in rural and hard-to-reach communities. Media organisations have a unique responsibility to translate complex meteorological forecasts into clear, practical guidance that people can use.

Communities need answers to simple but vital questions:

What does the warning mean for my area?

When is heavy rainfall expected?

Which communities are most at risk?

Where can I access emergency support if conditions worsen?

Providing timely, accurate, and locally relevant information empowers people to make informed decisions and counteracts rumours and misinformation that often emerge during emergencies.

Preparedness begins long before rivers overflow or roads become flooded. Community leaders, women's groups, youth networks, and local organisations all play a critical role in ensuring preparedness messages reach vulnerable households.

Communities can take practical steps to reduce risk, including moving household assets and livestock to higher ground, protecting important documents and personal records, and identifying safe evacuation routes and gathering points.

Special attention should be given to internally displaced persons, elderly people, people living with disabilities, and communities in low-lying areas, who are often disproportionately affected by flooding.

An early warning system is only effective if warnings reach the people who need them most.

This requires using a combination of communication channels, including: radio broadcasts, mobile phone alerts, social media platforms, community meetings, reaching communities through religious and traditional leaders and/or local government communication systems.

Warnings should be provided in local languages and translated into practical actions that communities can implement immediately.

The goal is not simply to inform people that heavy rains are coming. The goal is to help them understand what actions to take and when to take them.

Somalia's recent history shows that climate hazards will continue to pose significant challenges. However, it also demonstrates that timely information and preparedness can reduce their impact.

The anticipated El Niño season should therefore be seen not only as a threat but also as an opportunity. Every forecast provides a window to prepare. Every warning offers a chance to protect lives and livelihoods.

At BBC Media Action, we believe communication is central to resilience. By connecting communities with trusted information, amplifying local voices, and promoting practical preparedness measures, media can help transform early warnings into early action.

The lesson from previous El Niño events is clear: while we cannot stop the rains, we can help reduce their impact by preparing before they arrive.

--

Lead photo credit, GETTY IMAGES: People wade through a submerged street on a residential area in Beledweyne city of Hiran region on November 15, 2023 as Somalia experienced the worst climate-change-related floods in a century, wreaking havoc in many parts of the Horn of Africa country, affecting 1.24 million people and displacing over 456,800 more.