Ikibanza c'isaganirizo kuri Trump kigenda kigabanuka uko Amerika na Iran vyegereza amasezerano y'ibanze

Perezida Donald Trump ariko arisanga mu ngorane zikomeye mu gihe ariko arondera kurangiza intambara Amerika na Israel zatanguje kuri Iran: ariko yotswa igitutu kugira yugurure umuhora wa Hormuz anagabanye ibiciro vy'ibitoro. Yamara, ashobora kubura abamushigikira bakomeye mu mugambwe wiwe mu gihe yokwemera kugira ico arekuye mu masezerano na Tehran.

Ukuzazanirwa kwa Trump kwigaragaje muri iyi ndwi yaranzwe n'ibikorwa vyinshi vya diplomasiya vyihuta, aho hari amakuru avuga ko Amerika na Iran bisa n'ivyegereje cane rwose amasezerano yo kwongereza agahengwe.

Abazi neza ibijanye n'ivyo biganiro bavuga ko ikiringo c'agahengwe gishobora kwongerezwa vyumvikanyweko n'impande zompi, hama Iran ikiyemeza kwugurura umuhora wa Hormuz ucamwo igitoro na gaz, mu gihe ibiganiro ku mugambi wayo wa nikleyere vyoba birabangiriweko bikazobandanya hanyuma.

Ayo masezerano y'igihe gito, niyemezwa na Trump hamwe n'abategetsi ba Iran, yoshobora kuba intambwe ihambaye cane yo gushika ku mahoro, kuva Amerika ifadikanije na Isirayeli mu gutera Iran ku wa 28 Ruhuhuma (2). Yoshobora kandi gutuma iduga rikabije ry'ibiciro rigabanuka.

Ikindi gishoboka ni uko ayo masezerano yoshobora no gutuma igice kinini c'abashigikiye Trump kitamunezerererwa, cane cane Abarepubulikani bakomeye bamaze igihe bamusaba "guheraheza igikorwa" mu gusubira gutera Iran kugira bayibuze inzira iyo ari yo yose yoshobora kuyishikana ku gukora ibirwanisho vya nikleyere, ico Trump yavuze ko ari na co catumye aja muri iyo ntambara.

Mu ntango z'iyi ndwi, bamwe muri ba somambike ba Trump bashigikiye intambara yatanguje kuri Iran, baneguye bivuye inyuma amakuru yavuga ko hashobora kuba amasezerano.

Hari mbere n'abavuze ko Trump ashobora kutaronka ibirenze amasezerano ya nikleyere Iran na Amerika vyari vyashitseko mu 2015, yari yateguwe n'uwahoze ari Perezida wa Amerika w'ico gihe Barack Obama, Trump akaba yarayahagaritse mu kiringo ciwe ca mbere c'ubutegetsi.

Abakenguzamateka Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker na Ted Cruz, basanzwe badakunze guhushanya na Trump, basavye Perezida kutagira ico yemera corohereza Iran.

Trump na we yaciye yishura avuga ko "ata kwihuta kurimwo" kandi ko azokwemera "amasezerano meza cane" gusa.

Kubera akwegwa n'impande nyinshi zimusaba ibuvuguruzanya – kurondera umuti wihuta ku biciro vy'ibitoro vyaduze no guhagarika imigambi ya nikleyere ya Iran - Trump asigaranye isaganirizo rito.

Laura Blumenfeld, umuhinga w'ibibazo vyo mu Buseruko bwo Hagati muri Kaminuza ya Johns Hopkins, yavuze ati: "Uko Trump amaze iminsi agenda arahindagura amajambo n'ingingo yafashe birerekana ko ariko aragerageza guhagarika intambara nini mu buryo bugoye cane."

Umutegetsi umwe wo muri White House yavuze ko "ibiganiro biriko bigenda neza kandi ko Perezida yamaze gushira ahabona ivyo atazigera yemera."

Yongeyeko ati: "Perezida Trump azokwemera gusa amasezerano meza ku banyamerika, kandi ategerezwa gutuma Iran itazokwigera ironka ibirwanisho vya nikleyere."

Uwo mutegetsi yasavye kutavugwa izina kubera uburemere bw'ivyo yariko arashikiriza.

Ibibazo bitagira inyishu

Amakuru yashizwe ahabona ku wa kane n'ibinyamakuru ku bijanye n'ivyari bikubiye mu "rwandiko rw'ingene ibintu vyogenda", yerekana ko ayo masezerano ariko arategurwa asiga ibibazo vyinshi kandi bikomeye bitaronka inyishu.

Muri ivyo bibazo harimwo uko umuhora wa Hormuz uzoba wifashe ku kiringo kirekire, kazoza ka iranium ihinguye - ishobora no kuvamwo ibirwanisho - Iran ifise mu bubiko, hamwe n'ingene Iran yotezurirwa ibihano.

Ayo masezerano n'ubwo yobuza ukwiyongera kw'intambara, ntaragera kure y'ivyo Trump yari yarasavye imbere y'aha, harimwo "ukwishikana ata gisabwe" kwa Iran hamwe n'ugusambura umugambi wayo wa nikleyere. Iran na yo ikabandanya kuvuga ko umugambi wayo ari uw'amahoro gusa.

Jason Brodsky, umuyobozi ajejwe imigambi mw'ishirahamwe United Against Nuclear Iran ryiyejeme kurwanya ko Iran ironka ikirwanisho ca nikleyere, yavugiye ku rubuga rwa X ati:

"Nimba ibi ari vyo biri muri ayo masezerano kandi akaba asinywe, bisa n'uko Repubulika ya Kiisilamu ya Iran ari yo iriko ironka vyinshi kurusha Amerika muri ayo masezerano. Kwumvikana gusa ko ibiganiro vya nikleyere bizobandanya? Birakwiye kwitonderwa."

Itororokanirizo ry'amakuru rya Iran, Tasnim, ryavuze ko ivyanditswe muri ayo masezerano bitarashirwa ku mugaragaro.

Trump yari amaze gutangaza incuro nyinshi ko amasezerano yegereje. N'ubu ntacemeza ko aya masezerano mashasha azogira ico ashitseko aho n'ayandi yose yananiwe.

Iyi diplomasiya yihuta ibaye mu gihe Amerika na Iran vyasubiriye gushamirana, aho habaye kurasana ariko bitarenze urugero, ivyatumye agahengwe kari hagati y'impande zompi gahungabana.

Abasesanguzi bavuga ko Trump ariko aragerageza kurondera uburyo bwo gutuma Iran yemera kugira ivyo irekuye ku bibazo bihambaye, na we agatanga bike gusa, kugira bizomufashe kwerekana ko yatahukanye intsinzi.

Kwugurura umuhora wa Hormuz vyokwakirwa neza ku rwego mpuzamakungu, ariko kuri Trump vyoba ari ugusubizaho gusa uburyo bwo gutwara ibintu bwari busanzweho imbere y'uko atanguza intambara.

Hagati aho, ibihe vya politike n'ubutunzi ntivyorohereza Trump kuko biriko bigenda ku muvuduko munini. Ni mu gihe ibipimo vyerekana uko ashimwa n'abanyagihugu vyagabanutse gushika ku rugero rushasha.

Amatora yo hagati mu kiringo c'ubutegetsi ategekanijwe mu kwezi kwa Munyonyo (11) ariko aregereza, kandi Abarepubulikani bagenziwe bariko bagorwa no kugumana ubwiganze mu nama nkenguzamateka na nshingamateka. Hari kandi ivyegeranyo bishasha vyerekana ko hamwe iyo ntambara yobandanya, ubutunzi bw'isi bushobora gusinzikara cane.

Trump yigira nk'uko amatora yo hagati mu kiringo ataco amubwiye

Bisa n'uko Iran iriko irasaba ko ibihano bimwe bimwe vy'ubutunzi yafatiwe bitezurwa hakiri kare kugira inagure ubutunzi bwayo bwasenyutse, ibintu abatavuga rumwe na Trump batinya ko yoshobora kwemera kubera ashaka gushika ku masezerano yo guhagarika intambara.

Ariko mu nama y'abashikiranganji yabaye ku wa gatatu, Trump yasubiyemwo ivyiyumviro bikaze, avuga ko amatora yo hagati mu kiringo ataco amubwiye.

Yamara, abafasha biwe bavuga mu mpisho ko ibiciro biri hejuru vy'igitoro bishobora kubangamira rwose amahirwe y'Abarepubulikani mu matora.

Abasesanguzi bavuga ko Iran iriko irerekana ko yiyumva ko ari yo ifise akarusho, kuko yerekanye ko ishobora kurokoka ibitero vya gisirikare kandi ikagabanya canke igahagarika hafi igice kimwe ca gatanu c'ibitoro bikoreshwa kw'isi.

Jon Alterman wo mu kigo c'ubushakashatsi 'Center for Strategic and International Studies' yavuze ati: "Perezida ariko aratanga ibimenyetso vyose vy'uko ashaka ko ibi birangira vuba." Yongeyeko ati: "Ivyo ni vyo bituma Iran irushiriza kwihagararako."

Uku guhindagurika kwabaye muri iyi ndwi si ikintu gishasha kuri Trump, kuko yiyamamaje avuga ko atazokwinjiza Amerika mu ntambara zitari ngombwa, ariko mu nyuma aca ayishora mu ntambara yo hanze atatomoye neza imvo zabimuteye.

Abasesanguzi bavuga k'uko Trump azohitamwo kurangiza iyo ntambara bizoba ikintu gihambaye mu gusigura iragi rya politike yiwe yo hanze mu kiringo ciwe ca kabiri c'ubutegetsi.